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We won’t always have Paris
Not the one from the 1890s, nor in a hundred years the one from today.
When I was a boy, there was no movie in existence where at least some people might still have been alive no matter how long ago the pictures were taken. No longer true, not even remotely. Everything and everyone disappears into the past.
And then there were the 20’s, you know, a hundred years ago.
The year has certainly started like a lion
The above is an update with the President’s statement – “I am ready and prepared to take whatever action is necessary” – plus the following:
_______________ Below is the original post
After today, my impression is that the Americans know, and always have known, who their most dangerous enemies are and where to find them. Now their enemies know that as well. The rest below is from Instapundit.
“BOMB-O-GRAM FOR GENERAL SOLEIMANI!” Iraqi TV: Iranian military commander General Soleimani killed in Baghdad strike. “Gen. Qassim Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, was killed in an airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport Friday, Iraqi television and three Iraqi officials said. The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, the officials said.”
Weird, just after the Iranians attacked our embassy, the senior guys behind it get personally whacked by an “airstrike” of unexplained origin. Whatever could have happened?
UPDATE: Oh, this is sweet. Pointed out in the comments, Khamenei to Trump: “You can’t do anything.” Oh?
Good riddance to bad rubbish. I’ll bet Trump has the next step gamed out, too. The Iranians still seem to think they’re dealing with Obama, or post-2005 G.W. Bush.
MORE: Oops! Trump undermines another journalistic prediction.
STILL MORE: Nice to have a president who isn’t too fearful to strike:
I’ve wondered here before why the Bush Administration was so wimpy with regard to Iran starting in 2005. (It was easier — *cough* Valerie Jarrett *cough* — to see why the Obama Administration was). But it’s good that Trump isn’t.
MORE STILL:
539Posted at 9:29 pm by Glenn ReynoldsREPORT: Quds Force supreme commander Qassem Soleimani hit by U.S. airstrike in Baghdad.
Earlier: Iran’s Qassem Soleimani controls a multi-national army that is destabilizing the Mideast.
Related: Heh, indeed.™
UPDATE: Another austere religious scholar has assumed room temperature, the WaPo reports:
Just what are China’s ambitions?
And why shouldn’t they worry us? From The Economist:
Zoologists use a mild-sounding term—“displacements”—for moments when a strong, young mountain gorilla confronts the dominant male in his group. Behind the jargon lies a brutal reality: a drawn-out, bloody conflict looms. China’s leaders similarly use prim, technical-sounding terms to describe their confrontation with America. In closed-door briefings and chats with Western bigwigs, they chide the country led by President Donald Trump for responding to China’s rise with “strategic anxiety” (ie, fear). They insist that China’s only crime is to have grown so rapidly.
However, behind that chilly, self-serving analysis lurks a series of angrier, more primal calculations about relative heft. These began before Mr Trump came to office, and will continue even if an initial trade truce is made formal (Mr Trump says he will sign one on January 15th). They will endure long after November, when American voters next choose a president. China has spent decades growing stronger and richer. It already senses that only one country—America—can defy Chinese ambitions with any confidence. Its leaders have a bleak worldview in which might makes right, and it is a fairy tale to pretend that universal rules bind all powers equally. Increasingly, they can imagine a day when even America ducks a direct challenge, and the global balance of power shifts for ever.
Why some people dislike Donald Trump
Having gone into Quora on Donald Trump, my inbox is now filled with Quora Q&A on the American President. This has just come up, as an answer to the question, Why Do Some People Dislike Donald Trump? I found it quite interesting in that not a single reason among the ten listed relates to any policy questions. These people have no idea what makes their lives work or where their safety or personal wealth comes from.
About 60% (or more) of us dislike Donald Trump. Most avid Faux News watchers, and Republicans, will tell you all of the wrong reasons why we despise him.
Here are the real reasons.
- Trump is an embarrassment. We are now forced each morning to learn what new and embarrassing things the leader of the nation we used to be proud of has said or done on the world stage.
- Trump is a raging, malignant narcissist. Many of us knew what that meant. We already knew what problems are associated with this disorder. It meant he couldn’t love our country – or its citizens. And he doesn’t. And he can’t. But we were still standing here loving our nation. He’s never even spoken to us — even after all this time. He either calls us names (Losers, Haters), or he speaks “on behalf of the nation” without knowing our beliefs or thoughts. 1.5+ years into this and he still only talks to his “base”.
- His severe narcissism also makes him extremely predictable and most people in our Intelligence community will tell you how dangerous that is. Many of us, who already grew up with a bully knew this. We did not need to re-learn this and did not want to watch it slowly play out in the real world.
- Trump is amoral and exceedingly unethical. We didn’t (and still don’t) want to try to explain this to our children and grandchildren. We believe our President should be a role model and of the highest integrity. We also used to gain inspiration from our Presidents (both Republican and Democratic)… now we are just ashamed. We’ve been cringing daily for a-year-and-a-half now.
- Trump is a liar bent on making (or keeping) his “base” angry and afraid. He spins everything and tells his “followers ” the press is their enemy. This is for his benefit alone (narcissist) and not for the good of the nation. He lies every single day, to all sorts of people, and refuses to see that a divided nation is a weakened nation. Why? Because he has Narcissistic Personality Disorder.
- Trump isn’t intelligent. He speaks in a childish way and half the time sounds like a moron. He has convinced a good portion (maybe 38%) of the nation that he is smart (he has a “big brain”) but none of us who have already survived the torture of living with a narcissist believe what he says — or that he is intelligent. We see the commoner that he is.
- Trump is not prepared or qualified for the presidency. He knows next to nothing about governance, and will not bother to learn about it because he only serves, and cares about, himself. At least 60% of us thought our nation didn’t have time to wait for him to “get up to speed” and many of this same group also knew he’d never make a real effort to learn the job requirements — ever.
- Trump spits in the faces of women, minorities, Muslims, Mexicans, black people, other nations (including allies), and Democrats. He’s a despicable xenophobe, racist, misogynist, and philanderer. He’s a total wreck of a man-baby and an example of the worst behavior possible. This is intolerable to us.
- We (60% or more) don’t believe that simply being wealthy qualifies a person for any political office. It does not prove ability—especially when one is born into it. It certainly does not prove honesty, integrity, or accountability. Yet, we still want these qualities in our president and our politicians.
- We (the 60%+) knew (or at least those of us who’ve studied political science) we would most likely have a Republican president after 8 years with a Democratic president and we were willing to work with most any of them — except Trump.
- Trump has lowered the respect and trust the United States previously had in the world.
After all that, there is then this added on at the end:
Now, these are NOT the reasons we despise trump.
a. Because the Democrats didn’t win the election.
b. Because Hillary Clinton did not win.
c. Because a so-called Republican won the election.
d. Because we are “snowflakes”. In fact it takes much more courage to care about those less fortunate than ourselves and use our time and resources to help them. It takes real selflessness to see problems in society and try to fix them — even if we see later we failed. It takes real strength of character to see that some parts of society are being treated badly and then change ourselves and/or our laws to make things better for everyone. It virtually takes NO courage to only care about ourselves. In fact, we couldn’t be that selfish if we tried.
You didn’t add in the possibility that you are fools who are blind to reality, which is pretty close to the right answer.
Defining anti-semitism into oblivion
Thinking it over, prodded by the sensible comment below, I have to give large consideration to the possibility that the posts commented on below are not intended to be straight but are satirical observations on the attempts to defuse the accusation of anti-semitism of those who attack Jews in the streets or in their businesses, who kill people and draw swastikas on walls and synagogues.
Satire is supposed to make you laugh at the absurd by ridiculing notions that are straight forward idiocy through exaggerations of various kinds. If satire, it is the left that is being made fun of, and their media enablers, for their refusal to condemn the obvious and vicious anti-semitism found among some non-whites – particular among blacks and Islamists – for their undoubted anti-semitism. So the statement that only whites can be anti-semitic is a very clever parody, which I hope it is, or is an actual attempt to absolve those non-whites who hate Jews for being what they are, anti-semitic, but then letting them off the hook because of various extenuating sets of circumstances. The rest, below the line, is my original post.
__________
As anti-semitic as anything I have ever seen, self-hatred and idiocy rolled into one incredible package of disgust, this is not satire, or even intended satire: Only whites can be anti-semites.
They might kill you for being a Jew, they might murder your children for being Jews, they might burn Israel to the ground because it’s the Jewish State, but if their skin colour is anything other than white, they cannot, according to this hateful and deranged woman, be counted as anti-semitic.
And from the comments:
There is no such thing as a hate crime against a White. It is impossible for another ethnicity to be racist against a White. Only Whites are capable of racism. Only Whites are capable of antisemitism. All Whites are White Supremacists. White Supremacists are Nazis; therefore all Whites are Nazis. Nazis are racists against Blacks; therefore it is impossible for Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims and other people of color to engage in Nazi thoughts and activities and by extension, these people cannot have Nazi thoughts and actions against Jews. Jews who accuse anyone but Whites of being racist are not “real” Jews but pretenders. The real Jews are Black and were driven from their homes by the Europeans who then took over the title of “Jew” in order to steal the Jewish lands. (I heard about Black Jews months before the attack in New Jersey in, of all places, a small town in Mississippi by a Black man who I had always thought of as having a great deal of intelligence. Before the shooting I read an article in the international press complete with photo of a group of Blacks in traditional African garb who were claiming they were the real Jews, that real Jews were not White. This group was in France. This is a serious issue.
Serious it is, as are all forms of madness. More comment here.
A how-to guide to economic policy
For any single business, higher demand all other things being equal makes them more money and can often lead to an increase in the number of employees.
For an entire economy, higher demand has no bearing either on real incomes or on the level of employment.
This is straightforward and for me anyway, as obvious as the morning sun. It is the conclusion that comes from a proposition that now goes by the name Say’s Law.
There have been many examples in history where Say’s Law was shown to be an absolute truth in an economy. There have been even more where attempts to raise an economy from recession through increased public spending – through an increase in aggregate demand – have been abject failures. No stimulus in history has ever succeeded in pulling an economy out of recession, NOT A SINGLE ONE! The sad story since the GFC is the most recent, but there have been lots. Every single one made economic conditions worse.
On the other hand, we had the Peter Costello/John Howard years from 1996 to 2007 of the best economic management ever seen, possibly anywhere. Not only did we balance the budget for years on end, we ended up with zero national debt! Because of the idiocies of modern economic theory, even though this was done right there before our eyes, bad theory remains. Modern macro is economic poison, but it’s often lots of fun for both governments and the people who they spend the money on. And for everyone else, it looks sensible since higher demand must create higher levels of production. In reality, it is higher levels of production that allow for an increase in demand. That is why we are so much richer than a century ago. We produce more so that we can demand more.
We were reminded of all this here: John Howard and Peter Costello urge PM to keep building budget surplus.
John Howard and Peter Costello have urged the Morrison government not to squander the budget surplus on a short-term stimulus, while doubting whether monetary policy is still a useful economic instrument given the reduction in interest rates to historic lows.
“The government is absolutely right to be returning the budget to surplus and I think it’s right to anchor its fiscal policy to producing surpluses over the next four years,” Mr Costello, the nation’s longest-serving treasurer, told The Australian.
Treasury is filled with people who have no idea why this is the way to prosperity. Reserve Bank as well. A bit more here:
As forecasts for economic growth, household consumption and wages have been downgraded, and $21.6bn wiped from future surpluses, Mr Costello said he doubted whether monetary policy was still a useful economic lever.
“Monetary policy has run out of puff,” he said. “Once you get interest rates at near-zero levels, whether they’re at 0.75 per cent, 0.5 per cent, 0.25 per cent, it just doesn’t matter, it’s lost its power as an economic instrument and that is why when the Reserve Bank cut rates during the course of (last) year it had no discernible effect.”
Low interest rates are the other side of the Keynesian economic model, a disastrous shambles of a policy, which inevitably puts money into the hands of many more people who will not earn a productive return on investment relative to the proportion of borrowers who will do so if rates are higher. Interest rates are near zero everywhere and no economy has found low rates of any benefit. Only value-adding investment can raise living standards. High levels of public spending and low rates of interest will not do that, just as they never have.
Back to the 70s?
Is this Iran working with the American Deep State?
US EMBASSY ATTACK IN BAGHDAD
PRO-IRAN MOB
‘DEATH TO AMERICA’
DIPLOMATS IN SAFE ROOM
TRUMP: TEHRAN WILL PAY
UPDATE: It’s now six hours later. This is from Instapundit.
TRUMPY’S NO JIMMY: Iranian militias attack U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Trump sending 4,000 troops. Plus: “More than 100 U.S. Marines arrived at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad earlier Tuesday to help bolster security after the mob of Iranian-backed Shite militiamen tried to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.”
The Iranians won’t like the way this plays out.
Meanwhile, Democrats are already attacking Trump. Adriana Cohen writes, so much for the water’s edge. Silly Adriana. That’s only for Democratic presidents.
Meanwhile, blue-check lefties have rushed out to call this Trump’s Benghazi. But unlike Hillary, Trump didn’t leave the staff to die, he sent help.
Or as Trump notes:
Related: FLIR Video • Marines Arrive At The U.S. Embassy In Iraq.
Donald Trump jokes
I’ve just finished a quite interesting book on jokes from behind the Iron Curtain: Hammer And Tickle: A History Of Communism Told Through Communist Jokes. It looks at the jokes themselves; the evolution of these jokes as communism aged and new leaders took over; it looks at the different kinds of jokes told in different communist countries; it examines the fate of those who told such jokes and the difference in the fate of those who made such jokes depending on who was the leader of the Party; it asks whether such jokes helped the communists consolidate power or whether they helped bring communism down; it looks into the difference between telling anti-Nazi jokes in Nazi Germany versus telling anti-communist jokes in communist countries; it asks about the psychology of those who told such jokes and whether they helped relieve tensions; and much else. But I will say this, some of I found really funny. This is my favourite.
Khrushchev is walking through the Kremlin, getting worked up about the Soviet Union’s problems, and spits on the carpet in a gesture of disgust.
“Behave yourself, Nikita Sergeyevich,” admonishes the aide. “Remember that the great Lenin walked through these halls!”
“Shut up,” responds Khrushchev. “I can spit all I like here; the Queen of England gave me permission!’
“The Queen of England?”
“Yes! I spat on her carpet in Buckingham Palace too, and she said, ‘Mr Khrushchev, you can do that all you like in the Kremlin if you wish, but you can’t behave like this here …'”
Easy to see this one added to the Donald Trump canon and now that I have pointed it out, I expect it to be.
I therefore thought I might have a look at what passes for Donald Trump jokes. And google all you like, there really is not much although there was this: Donald Trump Jokes. None were funny but I did like this:
Where’s Donald Trump’s favorite place to shop?
Wall-mart!
Mere pun though it is, it seems appropriate. At least it’s policy-related and almost entirely a joke that could only be told about Trump. The rest are re-treads, never specifically about anything related to Trump himself and his policies, but are almost entirely forms of insult than anything with any associated wit or insight. The most interesting part to me about the communist jokes was that the ones that became acceptable were those directed at the failures of communism relative to the promises that had originally been made. Lots like that. The way to end up in the gulag was to tell jokes about actual party leaders, especially Lenin and Stalin. Very few like that.
As for Trump jokes, there was also this from Quora: What’s the best Donald Trump joke you ever heard? I don’t know if you can link from here but I read through as many as I could bear – there are at the present 2566 of them. For myself, I found them unbelievably tedious, almost entirely retreads from other contexts and other politicians. Not witty and not fun. Might help Democrats and other socialists relieve their tension but not funny. See for yourself if you can bear it. And because it’s Quora, there was not a single pro-Trump joke I came across.
It would be mind-numbing to go through the lot but this one had 12.1k upvotes. It is an old joke which I actually quite like which I heard long before and about someone else, not sure it wasn’t an Irish joke to begin with. I won’t put it down in full. It’s a shaggy dog story in which the President secludes himself from everyone and as the Secretary of this or the Secretary of that comes to see him to deal with some emergency he sends them packing because he is so busy. Finally:
Sanders open the door slowly and finds a disheveled unshaven Trump sitting at his desk with a big grin on his face. On top of his desk is a completed 30-piece puzzle of the New York skyline.
Sanders doesn’t know what to make of it.
Trump leans back triumphantly in his chair and says. “I’ve got something for your next press conference…” Sarah takes out her notebook.
“You see that puzzle?” Trump asks pointing at his desk. “Well, the box says ‘3 to 7 years’ and me, I finished it in JUST 6 DAYS!”
I would be interested if anyone has a really good Donald Trump joke, either for him or against him. Meanwhile there are lots of jokes about the Democrats I do find funny. E.g.
Maybe I’m just not looking in the right place.
An actuary looks at record temperatures and random chance
| # records days | Probability |
| 0 | 10.1% |
| 1 | 23.3% |
| 2 | 26.7% |
| 3 | 20.3% |
| 4 | 11.5% |
| 5+ | 8.1% |
I have asked an actuary to look more closely at the data I put up on Record temperatures and random chance. Based on a few assumptions, the probability that in any year a weather station will not produce a single record event is 10.1% so that the probability there will be at least one is 89.9%. What is therefore very unlikely is that there will be no such event in any year, and that is with weather stations that have been around for more than a hundred years. The more recent a station has been set up, the more likely there will be a record event in any given year. Given how many stations there are, there will be thousands of such record events in any given year, and for many of those stations, there will be more than one such event. In 8.1% of stations there may be five or more.
Record events happen all the time. There is ZERO information about whether the planet is heating by noting that a record high temperature has occurred in some place or another. If this were Uri Geller bending spoons with the power of his mind, it wouldn’t matter. A few dummies get conned and that would be the end of it. That we are dismantling and refusing to build coal-fired power-generating installations is a form of insanity that is making some very undeserving people very wealthy while threatening the future prosperity and living standards of many many others.
Law of Markets 