An actuary looks at record temperatures and random chance

# records days Probability
0 10.1%
1 23.3%
2 26.7%
3 20.3%
4 11.5%
5+ 8.1%

I have asked an actuary to look more closely at the data I put up on Record temperatures and random chance. Based on a few assumptions, the probability that in any year a weather station will not produce a single record event is 10.1% so that the probability there will be at least one is 89.9%. What is therefore very unlikely is that there will be no such event in any year, and that is with weather stations that have been around for more than a hundred years. The more recent a station has been set up, the more likely there will be a record event in any given year. Given how many stations there are, there will be thousands of such record events in any given year, and for many of those stations, there will be more than one such event. In 8.1% of stations there may be five or more.

Record events happen all the time. There is ZERO information about whether the planet is heating by noting that a record high temperature has occurred in some place or another. If this were Uri Geller bending spoons with the power of his mind, it wouldn’t matter. A few dummies get conned and that would be the end of it. That we are dismantling and refusing to build coal-fired power-generating installations is a form of insanity that is making some very undeserving people very wealthy while threatening the future prosperity and living standards of many many others.

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