The accuracy of Covid tests

Saw this as a comment here.

Bayesian conditional probability is being completely ignored. Let’s say a COVID-19 test is 90% accurate and 1 out of 100 people have COVID-19. You test positive for COVID-19, what’s the chance the test is correct? 100-1=99 people don’t have COVID-19 but 99×10%= ~10 will falsely test positive. The probability that you actually have COVID-19 is only 1/(1+10)= ~9%. ~90% of positive cases/deaths are FALSE!

Bayesian probability is, of course, the only way to validate such tests accurately. BTW read the whole article:

Nobel Prize Virologist Calls Current Policy Of Mass Vaccination “A Serious Mistake”…”Medical Error”

Seeking the underlying Covid agenda

From the real story of the Chinese flu.

The virus was not the cause for global catastrophe. It was the response to the virus that crippled the global economy and our society. The disease was not nearly as damaging as the “cure” for the disease.

While it’s important to get to the bottom of what exactly happened in China regarding the virus itself, this does not change the fundamental nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. First and foremost, the *disease itself* is not particularly lethal. With a corrupt, shoddy testing system and an average age of death similar to our average lifespans, COVID-19, had it not been elevated to such an insane level of discourse, would have been understood as just another respiratory illness season. COVID Mania is a toothless endeavor without the information operation attached to it.

This is why the most important thing to uncover is not the origin of the virus itself, but the origin of the information operation that led to the catastrophic effects from insane policies supposedly designed to deal with the virus. I have written about this subject at length. A good starting point is my article from April, titled, “How COVID-19 became a disinformation operation wrapped in a virus.

We have firm, indisputable evidence that the Chinese government ran a disinformation operation attached to the virus, which did far more damage to the world in the form of spreading fear and panic across the globe. The Chinese government operation succeeded in shutting down the global economy and striking a devastating blow to China’s adversaries when they decided, based on China’s quack science recommendations, to enforce self-sabotage in the form of lockdowns, curfews, and the like.

It was entirely about the American election in 2020, with the anti-Trump left worldwide joining in along with the media.

You will not expel them

The best article I have seen on the recently-ended conflict: Hamas’s forever war against Israel has a glitch, and it isn’t Iron Dome. This is the glitch, and it is related to a story, told at the very end of the article, of a meeting between two top Israeli generals and General Giap, who led the Vietnamese army against the Americans.

When the Israelis rose to leave, Giap suddenly turned to the Palestinian issue. “Listen,” he said, “the Palestinians are always coming here and saying to me, ‘You expelled the French and the Americans. How do we expel the Jews?’”

The generals were intrigued. “And what do you tell them?”

“I tell them,” Giap replied, “that the French went back to France and the Americans to America. But the Jews have nowhere to go. You will not expel them.”

I am not sure how positive that is about the future, but it is undoubtedly the truth. Fascinating article from end to end and well worth your time.

Wake me when it’s over

Commercial programs like The Project have bought in to Woke big time. Picture: Ten

Commercial programs like The Project have bought into Woke big time.

I saw this article this morning – Woke is a genius brand, and a threat to our way of life – and was going to put it up but now they have put it on the front page of the online edition so it must have attracted a lot of readers besides myself. It really is exceptional. These are the elements identified of the woke brand but you need to go to the article to see these fleshed out.

You need to know your market
You need a brand promise.
You need a brand personality
You need a mission statement
You need a brand book that explains how the brand behaves in all circumstances and how it relates to the world
You need a brand strategy to dominate the competition
You need to identify what is known as the “customer journey” that maps the experience with the brand
You need “full funnel” marketing that builds awareness, consideration, and purchase
You need a social media strategy
You need point of sale
You need brand-specific DIY manuals with step-by-step instructions on how to buy in

He finishes with this:

Who owns this brand?

Everyone who wants a piece. It sells a grand narrative of achieving social justice through a collection of half thought out assertions. In reality, woke threatens to undermine the values of Western civilisation.

And who could he have in mind about this? Thousands of students join climate rally in Melbourne.

Protesters gather in Melbourne’s Treasury Gardens for a climate rally on Friday.

As we read: ‘Josie, 14, from Richmond High School said not enough adults were taking action so students had to do it now. “It’s such a big issue. We have to step up,” she said.’

Thank goodness for all of these visionary 14-year olds.

How the UK government weaponised fear during Covid

And it was hardly the only one.

And as for recent books with a focus on how deluded we have been by our institutions, there is also this one: The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times’s Misreporting, Distortions and Fabrications Radically Alter History. Here’s the description at the link.

“The New York Times is by far the most influential newspaper in the world and thus receives far too little journalistic scrutiny due to its power to affect careers. Any book that casts a critical eye on the Paper of Record’s history, as this book does, is performing a valuable service.”—Glenn Greenwald

 

Think a newspaper can’t be responsible for mass murder? Think again.

As flagship of the American news media, the New York Times is the world’s most powerful news outlet. With thousands of reporters covering events from all corners of the globe, the Times has the power to influence wars, foment revolution, shape economies and change the very nature of our culture. It doesn’t just cover the news: it creates it.

But the institution that is the New York Times is showing cracks. No longer the fact-stringing paper of record once known as the Gray Lady, the Times has become a political lightning rod that divides more often than it unites. It is frequently beset by scandal and has even emerged as a symbol of the political, cultural and social ills plaguing our society.


The Gray Lady Winked pulls back the curtain on this illustrious institution to reveal a quintessentially human organization where ideology, ego, power and politics compete with the more humble need to present the facts. In its 10 gripping chapters, The Gray Lady Winked offers readers an eye-opening, often shocking, look at the New York Times’s greatest journalistic failures, so devastating they changed the course of history.


These are the stories that mattered most, including the Times’s disastrous coverage of the:


Second World War – Holocaust – Rise of the Soviet Union – Cuban Revolution – Vietnam War – Second Palestinian Intifada – Atomic Bombing of Japan – Iraq War – Founding of America


The result is an essential look at the tangled relationship between media, power and politics in a post-truth world told with novelistic flair to reveal a uniquely powerful institution’s tortured relationship with the truth.


Most importantly of all, The Gray Lady Winked presents a cautionary tale that shows what happens when the guardians of the truth abandon that sacred value in favor of self-interest and ideology—and what this means for our future as much as for our past.

From Quora

What do you do if a girl hits you?

“An aggressive action from anyone should be rejected and punished.”

Related questions.

Why is it OK for a woman to hit a man, but it’s wrong for that same man to hit that same woman back in self-defense?
Is it right if a girl hits you and you hit her back?
What should a guy do if a girl hits him?
Is it okay to hit a girl if she hit you first?
What do you do when a woman hits you? Do you hit back, ignore her, or threaten to call the police?
Say a woman hits a man for no reason. The man did not provoke her in any way. Does the man have every right to hit a woman back, in self defense, for hitting him for no reason?
How come boys aren’t allowed to hit girls but I see a lot of girls hitting boys?
What can you do if a girl hits you and you’re a guy and you can’t hit her back?
In America, why are people shocked when a man hits a female back? Why should man not hit back a female, when he would hit back another male?
Is it illegal to hit a woman for self-defense?
`
The answers are similar throughout. If someone is attacked, whether by a woman or a man, the right to defend oneself is universally understood.
`

Feminist self-harm discussed

Feminist Confesses: “I’m All For Feminism, But It’s Making It Hard to Date”

—Ace

You don’t say. You don’t say.

This was published by Bolde. I can’t find it on the site; maybe they’ve deleted it. There is a Jennifer Lee that writes there, so that checks out.

Or maybe it’s a spoof meant to look like it was published on Bolde. I dunno.

Let’s assume it’s real, provisionally.

Watch as very obvious dimes drop one by one.

I consider myself a feminist, but I can’t lie–I’m starting to notice its effects on my dating life. This doesn’t change my belief in equality, I just hope that men and women can eventually learn to date in harmony because it’s pretty messy right now.1. I’M HYPER AWARE OF EVERY SEXIST THING A GUY DOES NOW.

It doesn’t take much for me to overanalyze a guy’s intentions nowadays. I used to see a guy opening a door for me as nice and polite, but lately, gestures like this have been making me angry. I know the guys offering these acts of chivalry have no intention to make me feel small or lesser than, but now that my eyes have been opened to feminist theory, it’s all I’m able to think about.

Please save me from my cult.

2. GUYS ARE STARTED TO THINK WE DON’T NEED THEM ANYMORE.

Even though the feminist movement is pretty much the best thing to happen to this world since sliced bread, it’s taking its toll in the dating scene. The thing is, I’m starting to get a bit of a stand-offish vibe from guys, like they’re afraid to make a move, and I think it’s because they think that we don’t need them anymore….

You don’t say. I wonder where men would get the idea that women who say “a woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle” would not need men anymore.

3. ONE LITTLE ANTI-FEMINIST COMMENT CAN COMPLETELY TURN ME OFF.When I’m out with a guy and he says one thing that’s even REMOTELY offensive towards women, I find it really hard to recover. I instantly write guys off if they aren’t “woke” to the current social mindset towards gender politics and can’t let it go. Let’s just say I’ve gone on A LOT of first dates that never go anywhere.

Cults train cultists to be alienated from normal non-cult society, so that they have no refuge, except the cult.

It’s what keeps them coming back.

4. IT’S LIKE GUYS ARE WALKING ON EGGSHELLS AROUND US.Guys are feeling the heat and we can all tell. They’re afraid to compliment us or relate to us in the way they were always taught to and trust me, this is a good thing. However, women still like to be pursued (at least I do) and it’s unfortunate that by finally standing up for our rights and demanding respect, we’re totally scaring men away. It’s so messed up and a total shame.

It’s almost as if she’s realized she’s been brainwashed.

5. I’VE BEEN BRAINWASHED TO ASSUME THE WORST IN MEN.

Oh, there you go.

All it takes is one quick scroll down my newsfeed and I have enough feminist rants to last me several winters. I think I’ve almost trained my brain to assume ALL men are here to try to put me down and dominate me when that’s far from the truth. I’ve made it kind of an automatic reflex at this point, though.

It’s almost as if feminists have trained themselves to be hostile, paranoid man-haters.

Almost.

I mean…

…8. IT’S MADE US MORE SEPARATE FROM EACH OTHER THAN EVER BEFORE.

Men and women ALREADY have so much trouble trying to understand each other, but feminism has turned our society into a bit of a battle of the sexes. I’m not on their side or anything, I’m just pointing out that we’re currently in a sort of “us against them” mentality and it’s gonna take a while until it all smooths out.

A “sort of us versus them mentality.”

Just sort of!, ..

10. I SWEAR GUYS ARE APPROACHING ME LESS.

Is it just me or are guys doing a lot more looking around than actually approaching? Times are a little weird right now and I guess guys are afraid that the way they approach women might offend us or give us the wrong impression.

Nah, you’re fine. Keep on doing what you’re doing.

This is so perfect that I’m afraid it might be a troll but YOLO, it’s still all true.

AddendumHere is the Bolde link to the article: it’s real! [CBD]

From Ace of Spades, who for some reason leaves out this which is in some ways the best bit:

7. THE DEBATE ON WHO SHOULD PAY HAS NEVER BEEN MORE ALIVE.

I’m on the side that believes whoever does the asking should also do the paying. If I ask a guy out on a date, I would expect to pay, absolutely. If a guy asks me, I would expect that he shells out the money for the evening. It’s just the way it should be. However, due to the recent boost in feminism, a guy paying the bill could be seen as anti-feminist and no guy wants to be considered a misogynist in this day and age. The song and dance of who’s gonna pay has never been more awkward and it’s making dating that much more difficult to maneuver.

The Covid class divide

Sounds a lot like Australia.

From a lefty source:

There’s a huge Covid class divide. The economy has not just bounded back for upper income Americans Australians; it’s given them higher housing values and lower interest rates. Meanwhile, 12 million service industry workers are still out of work. Small businesses are struggling. The affluent see Covid as a health problem, while for the working class it’s about economic survival. And liberals are doing the same thing they did with Trump: Clothing their class privilege as science and facts and morality. The politicians are even worse. Instead of coming up with a clean Covid bill, Democrats are now trying to pressure Biden into student loan forgiveness. Can you believe it? What kind of society thinks it’s ok to ask 12 million people who lost their jobs to Covid to foot the bill for the student loans of the top 40% of earners? Sure, maybe it will accidentally help someone in a food line who dropped out of college. But college-educated Americans are back at work. The Covid recession is over for them. Why are the Democrats designing legislation to help the people who need it least, in the belief that some of the benefits might trickle down to help those who need it most?

Oh, I think I know why

For all of those oh so concerned upper-middle-class lefties, helping “the poor and disadvantaged” comes right after helping themselves. You know, like all those public servants who never lost a day’s pay over the whole of the last year.

Via Instapundit.