Law of Markets

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Law of Markets

Economic theory and junk science

You may have heard me mention once or twice before that Keynesian economics is junk science, but just in case you missed it I am going to mention it again. What has brought all this to mind is reading the front page story in The Oz in the context of the booming economy in the US. In The Oz we have this: Bill shock as standard of living slumps. In the United States we have this: US private sector added 250,000 jobs in Dec, vs estimate of 190,000: ADP. It also mentions that “the report helped send the Dow to break the 25,000 mark for the first time”. Of course, here in Australia we have something else instead:

Australians have endured their longest period of falling living standards in more than a quarter of a century as growth in costs outstripped earnings for the fifth consecutive quarter, leaving households worse off than they were six years ago.

The moronic focus on public spending to lift our economies is such dead stupidity, but even more dead stupidity is that economists continue with Y=C+I+G as the mantra of macroeconomic thought. I have just been sent my copyedited article that will be published in June: “Making Sense of Classical Theory”. It is an attempt to remind others that there was not only an economic theory before the publication of The General Theory in 1936, but that theory was vastly superior to the theory that disfigures our economic textbooks today.

As it happens, I have just been re-reading the third edition of my Free Market Economics. There is, unfortunately, nothing like it. Perfectly clear and as easy to read as a blog post but entirely framed around classical economic theory. The economics of John Stuart Mill, the greatest economist who has ever lived, recast for the 21st century. If you don’t want to buy it yourself, just get your library to buy a copy.

The reality remains that our living standards will continue to descend if those who make policy continue to believe that public expenditures like the Snowy Mountain Project Mark II will make the economy grow. It will, in exactly the same way as the NBN.

Daemonology, climatology, it’s all the same thing, a means for the ignorant to pretend they know something important when they actually don’t

This is Karabar commenting on a previous post. It’s about the kind of people who now invest psychologically in global warming. They are the same people who once burned witches at the stake.

In 1597 King James VI of Scotland published his work “Daemonology”. Within a few decades, Europeans discussed endlessly various methods of killing demons of all description. As time passed and people became “enlightened”, it became obvious that all this discussion about ‘fighting dangerou0s demons’ was nothing but make-believe intended to enhance the power and wealth of the elite.

We really haven’t learned anything, since in the 21st century we discuss endlessly the make-believe of ‘global warming’, ‘dangerous climate change’, the ways in which human activities affect the weather, etc.

Discussions about the imaginary “Global Climate” are as much nonsense as discussions four centuries ago about werewolves, vampires, and witches. In order to determine whether or not some parameter has changed, it is necessary to have some sort of metric that can be examined over time to discover the extent and nature of the change.

“Climate” indeed has such a metric, in the form of classification systems, for the most part Koppen-Geiger and Trewartha. Both have six basic classifications, which are further subdivided into approximately ten sub classifications each. In examining the geographical changes over a century or so, it is clear that areas of each classification can expand or contract slightly in tune with the cyclical nature of the solar system. Indeed, over the breadth of the twentieth century one can argue that there has effectively been no NET change, other than the remarkable greening of vegetation over the past three or four decades which is reflected in the Trewartha classification.

If there were such a parameter as the imaginary “global climate”, what would it be? Would it fall into the classification A, B, C, D, E, or F? Would that mean that the climate of the Scott base is of the same classification as Honolulu?

As homo sapiens did three or four centuries ago, today we insist on the discussion of pure nonsense, but instead of it being how to identify and torture witches, we insist on discussion nonsense such as ‘global warming’, ‘ocean acidification’, and ‘decarbonisation’.

Four centuries have passed with little or no anthropocentric advancement in common sense. Thousands of innocent people were tortured and burned alive in this previous bout of idiocy. How many have to suffer due to the IPCC version of “Daemonology”?

A bit of history and a challenge to the climate change people, a challenge they are absolutely certain never to take up.

If their presenters are this stupid what must the people who watch be like?

From Twitchy: CNN busts fake news: Trump doesn’t REALLY have a big NUKE button on his desk. Be sure you read the final bit of this post just to see where we are at.

An actual nuclear blast would feel like a bit of an understatement at this point now that we’ve felt the shockwaves of President Trump’s tweet Tuesday night reverberate through social media and the press. In case you missed it, here it is again, currently hovering just above 420,000 likes:

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!

Sure, CNN thought it was breaking news and wondered if threatening a nuclear strike violated Twitter’s terms of service. Check out this clip of Fox News’ Greg Gutfeld busting a gut over it:

Perhaps in a bid to calm the country’s nerves a bit, CNN’s Chris Cillizza did a bit of fact-checking Wednesday, revealing that President Trump doesn’t actually have a big button on his desk that launches nuclear missiles at North Korea.

No, Trump doesn’t have a big nuclear button on his desk | Analysis by @CillizzaCNN http://cnn.it/2DZHvEj 

Cillizza reports:

Practically speaking, it makes lots and lots of sense that there is no nuclear button on the president’s desk. As a clumsy person myself, I can imagine a president accidentally bumping into it — or tripping and landing a hand on it. Not good.

Now, that said: The power to launch a nuclear strike does rest entirely in the hands of Trump. Or, more accurately, in the hands of a small rotating group of military personnel who carry a briefcase that contains the nuclear codes.

Yeah, we know … remember the time Vice President Joe Biden in a speech pointed out the military aide who travels with him carrying the nuclear launch codes? CNN didn’t seem flustered about that, though.

Is everyone a little calmer now, or was that piece written just to soothe Brian Stetler and Anderson Cooper?

Of course, this story might be compared with this from Instapundit right now.

What really is there to say after that? There is no irony deep enough to cover this. We are far out and beyond even the wildest extension of Muggridge’s Law anyone could possibly imagine.

Shameless lying because that is what their readers demand

The first few comments at Instapundit in response to calling out another fabulist on the left:

MICHAEL WOLFF SAYS THAT TRUMP IS A BIG FAT IDIOT WHO DIDN’T EVEN WANT TO WIN. I’m not a fan of Wolff’s, and frankly doubt his story. But if it’s true, how humiliating is it for Hillary and the Democrats, to lose to a big fat idiot who didn’t even want to win?

These are from the comments thread, and there are many more just like them.

She lied, cheated, and had the media cheating for her, and she lost against a guy who didn’t care?

That’s gotta burn….

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Not only that.

She had Trump and his campaign wired by the FBI, she had CNN give her the debate questions in advance, she had billions of corrupt dollars to spend and she STILL couldn’t win.

She was the thoroughbred who couldn’t beat the farm hack pulling a plow in a 100 yard sprint.

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“Wolff, who chronicles the administration from Election Day to this past October, conducted conversations and interviews over a period of 18 months with the president, most members of his senior staff, and many people to whom they in turn spoke. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, Wolff says, he was able to take up “something like a semi-permanent seat on a couch in the West Wing” — an idea encouraged by the president himself. Because no one was in a position to either officially approve or formally deny such access, Wolff became “more a constant interloper than an invited guest.” There were no ground rules placed on his access, and he was required to make no promises about how he would report on what he witnessed.”

So a guy whose past effort included a columnist at New York Mag and Vanity Fair, who tried to buy New York Mag and eventually created Newser – another Lib outlet … was given free run of the Trump WH and everyone in it., And they all confided to him the most nasty detail of anything that came to mind. Quoted on the record no less. No one even thought a thing of letting this obvious tool for the Left wander around and provide him with as much dirt and sensitive information as possible?

And now, unsurprisingly, he unloads all the hurt on this President he can. Because hey, the Trump WH figured that would just be OK? Indeed, Trump himself did?

Am I the only one who thinks that something just doesn’t add up here. That this entire scenario is about as likely as getting struck 3 times by lighting in a day? WTF?

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MICHAEL WOLFF SAYS THAT TRUMP IS A BIG FAT IDIOT WHO DIDN’T EVEN WANT TO WIN.

What difference – at this point, what difference does it make?

 

Trump is smart in business and a quick study in politics. All liberal fools admire those who think outside the box — Jobs, Gates, Musk, Gladwell,… Well Trump thinks outside the box all day every day.

They judge him by his bad haircut and horrible taste in interior design. But that is just an other example of him thinking outside the box. It makes us underestimate him.

 

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VDH’s take fresh after the elections: amazing

 

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Look, Prof., this is samizdat of the worst type. What the he!! possesses Bannon?

 

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Yes sir, if Trump is known for one thing it is playing to lose. Alternatively, consider that Wolff has often been accused of just making things up. Which is more likely?

 

The idea that these people feel any shame or remorse is why we find it hard to win

Number 4 from Five Tweets That Did Not Age Well In 2017.

4) Linda Sarsour and Jerusalem

Here we have the tweet that was dead on arrival. 

 is not the capital of Israel no matter how many times Trump says it. He doesn’t speak for me.

 

Oh, where to begin… maybe with a map and some history?

You see, Linda, the nation of Israel calls Jerusalem its capital. I know this is hard for a raging anti-Semite like yourself to understand, but Donald Trump did not make Jerusalem the capital of Israel. All he did was acknowledge that Israel says it is the capital, and decided to move our embassy there. And thanks to him and to Ambassador Nikki Haley, we have affirmed our friendship with the ONLY stable democracy in the Middle East.

Thank you, Ambassador Haley. On Hanukkah, you spoke like a Maccabi. You lit a candle of truth. You dispel the darkness. One defeated the many. Truth defeated lies. Thank you, President Trump. Thank you, Nikki Haley.

I hope that video gives Linda Sarsour heartburn.


And this was Number 5.

5) Ben Rhodes and lies

Oh, where to begin with Ben Rhodes, noted author of the Iran deal disaster and Obama apologist. Let’s look in the wayback machine for this one:

The President repeatedly lying is devastating to US credibility around world. If people can’t believe what US gov is saying how can we lead? https://twitter.com/potus/status/839099211266285568 

This is a tweet that Rhodes really should regret, but I’m fairly certain he possesses no capacity for shame or self-awareness.

The President repeatedly lying is devastating to US credibility around world. If people can’t believe what US gov is saying how can we lead? https://twitter.com/potus/status/839099211266285568 

In old enuf to remember when your old boss said Benghazi was caused by a YouTube video while at the UN.

The President repeatedly lying is devastating to US credibility around world. If people can’t believe what US gov is saying how can we lead? https://twitter.com/potus/status/839099211266285568 

I’m old enough to remember when Ben Rhodes bragged about lying to Congress and the Media about Obama’s Iran deal.

The President repeatedly lying is devastating to US credibility around world. If people can’t believe what US gov is saying how can we lead? https://twitter.com/potus/status/839099211266285568 

Do you like your doctor Ben?

Maybe, just maybe, the guy that wrote and pushed the Iran Deal would care to explain this?

NOW LIVE: The secret backstory of how the Obama administration let Hezbollah off the hook http://politico.com/project-cassandra 

NOW LIVE: The secret backstory of how the Obama administration let Hezbollah off the hook http://politico.com/project-cassandra  pic.twitter.com/wrBkSXVpjA

For eight years, a top-secret DEA facility in Chantilly, Virginia, was the hub of a global investigation that used wiretaps, undercover operations and informants to map Hezbollah’s illicit networks of drug traffickers and other criminal enterprises. http://politico.com/project-cassandra  pic.twitter.com/9fl7ll5LZs

View image on Twitter

For eight years, a top-secret DEA facility in Chantilly, Virginia, was the hub of a global investigation that used wiretaps, undercover operations and informants to map Hezbollah’s illicit networks of drug traffickers and other criminal enterprises. http://politico.com/project-cassandra  pic.twitter.com/9fl7ll5LZs

But Obama administration officials, in their determination to achieve an Iran nuclear deal, undermined the efforts of  http://politico.com/project-cassandra pic.twitter.com/4wjIGr7JqO

View image on Twitter

Nope.

There is boundless irony and hypocrisy in how much people who love to sneer at “echo chambers” live entirely inside a perpetual right wing echo chamber of non-fact based anti Iran Deal propaganda. https://twitter.com/joshmeyerdc/status/943245806450114560 

He just called Politico “right-wing.” I don’t think he’s familiar with the national media if that’s the angle he wants to play.

Ben, you’re in an unique position to refute parts of the story you find incorrect. Perhaps do that approach instead of this. It’s more befitting of the office of which you served and a debate would do well to inform the public conversation.

He can’t do it because the report’s true.

Maybe Rhodes should sit down and shut up until he can explain himself.

The bravest man in Australia

Sherry Sufi is chairman of the West Australian Liberal Party’s policy committee. He was the Liberal candidate for Fremantle at the 2016 federal election but resigned after the emergence of a recording in which he impersonated WA parliament Speaker Michael Sutherland’s South African accent using crude language. This is what he wrote in The Australian today: Islamic terrorism: myth and conspiracy theory build augmented reality. This is the entire article and I apologise to The Oz but this needs to get past the paywall.

Another day. Another terrorist. Another misdiagnosis.

We’ve long been told by ­“experts” that terrorism is the ­result of the perpetrators being mentally ill, poor, unemployed, uneducated or marginalised. Yet al-Qa’ida leader Osama bin Laden was a billionaire and Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi holds a PhD.

So much for poverty and lack of education.

Present-day Muslims, irrespective of whether they are terrorists or normal citizens, collectively subscribe to an augmented reality featuring a struggle between the imperialist forces of America, ­Israel and their Western allies on one side and the global community of Muslims on the other.

Blind trust in conspiracy theories does more to influence this world view than critical inquiry. No, not the “moon landing never happened” or “Elvis is still alive”- type theories. More so “the Jews, the Freemasons and the illumi­nati control the world” and “September 11 was an inside job to demonise Muslims”-type theories.

Romanticising over the lost glories of a once mighty Islamic empire that stretched from China to Spain remains a favourite pastime in learned Muslim circles. British and French colonialism are deeply ­resented for playing divide-and-conquer between Turks and Arabs in the 1920s to dismantle the Ottoman Empire, the last ­Islamic caliphate on earth.

European Ashkenazi Jews are begrudged for colluding with the British Empire to create Israel in 1948 in the heart of the Islamic world. Many believe the goal of Zionism is to usurp more Arab land and create “Greater Israel” stretching from the rivers Nile in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq.

Many similarly believe that ­Israel has a secret plot to demolish the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosque to rebuild the third Jewish temple over the holy site.

From the 1991 Gulf war to the 2001 war on terror in Afghanistan and the 2003 Iraq war, every case of American military intervention in Muslim nations is perceived as a “crusade” against Islam, despite each having occurred with the support of co-operating elements within those nations.

Liberating Jerusalem from the Zionists, toppling pro-American puppet regimes in Muslim nations and challenging America’s might as the world’s sole superpower are fantasies that lie at the core of this world view.

These are the exact ­aspirations extremist Muslims are striving hard to bring to reality by means of asymmetric warfare, otherwise known as terrorism.

When we see Muslims condemning extremist Muslims, what they’re essentially saying is that suicide bombings, stabbings, kidnappings, beheadings and mowing down pedestrians are unacceptable means to advance these ­aspirations.

They’re not necessarily saying the aspirations are the problem. The condemnation is directed at the means, not the end. Muslims and extremist Muslims often yearn for the same political outcomes. Except one finds an outlet in words, the other in ­weapons.

Islamic State publishes an ­online propaganda magazine called Dabiq. It contains graphic images of Muslim corpses following American drone strikes on al-Qa’ida cells in Yemen and on Taliban hideouts in Pakistan. Such images come with captions reporting more civilian deaths than ­those of terrorists.

The myth that American and Israeli militaries are deliberately killing Muslim civilians because they feel threatened by Islam is the single greatest driving force ­behind radicalisation.

Dabiq urges Muslims worldwide to fight the ­injustices inflicted by “the Crusaders and the Jews” by killing their ­civilians. This call to action ­appeals to some because they are already predisposed to deep-seated anti-American, anti-Zionist resentment.

The British Empire colonised both Hindus and Muslims in the Indian subcontinent for the same length of time. There are prominent Hindu anti-imperialists who believe Britain owes reparations to India, yet there is no Hindu lone wolf mowing down British pedestrians on Westminster Bridge.

America dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan during World War II, yet the Japanese haven’t set up terrorist organisations ­urging people to storm a gay nightclub in Florida and gun down 50 unarmed civilians trying to dance the night away.

America has a longer history of military intervention in Latin America than it does in the Middle East, yet there are no Hispanic ­hijackers flying planes through the World Trade Centre.

Suffice it to say the case of Muslim victimhood is exceptionally eruptive.

It is my contention that unless the myths and conspiracy theories that underpin this augmented reality are comprehensively refuted, Muslims worldwide will continue to remain susceptible to radicalisation.

For now, let’s focus on internalising the diagnosis of the problem presented in this article. As to how the associated world view may be refuted will be a subject for a future article. Stay tuned.

And perhaps the bravest woman. Jennifer Oriel on Enlightenment of little interest to most Muslims. Here’s how it starts:

In a century plagued by perpetual war, the West is succumbing to battle fatigue. The general public is weary of fighting foreign wars of dubious national interest. No sooner had the war against Islamic State been won than the West was recalled to battle that other old foe, communism. The coming year will be defined by our capacity to resist the free world’s dual ­enemies, communism and Islamism. But the West would benefit from a new approach to international affairs. The big government interventionism that has shaped Western foreign policy since Roosevelt’s “four freedoms” declaration has failed to seed universal enlightenment. Rather, this year opens with an international ­alliance of despots determined to realise totalitarian destiny.

In the closing chapters of 2017, the world turned on the US and ­Israel at the United Nations to ­placate jihadis. Hamas called for an intifada after the US decided to move its embassy to Jerusalem. North Korea’s communist dictator Kim Jong-un threatened nuclear holocaust and China ­allegedly enabled its old comrade by shipping oil in defiance of trade sanctions. Again, the rules-based international order was ­upheld by a minority of states while Islamist and communist ­regimes behaved as lawless actors on the world stage.

The West is losing the battle for universal ­enlightenment. The loss would be more tolerable if it were attributable primarily to a rogues’ gallery of dictators. However, ­research published during the past decade demonstrates widespread rejection of efforts to introduce ­liberal democracy to the Islamic world. For example, the Pew ­Research Centre found that after a decade of US and ­coalition military action against terrorism in ­Afghanistan, 99 per cent of Muslims favoured making sharia the official law in their country. In Iraq, the figure was 91 per cent.

A grasshopper’s view of an ancient fable

An ancient fable updated by Karabar. As he says: “This one is a little different. Two Different Versions. Two Different Morals.” First the original, then the modern.

OLD VERSION:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house, and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out.

MORAL OF THE OLD STORY: Be responsible for yourself!

That’s the story that we have been telling each other for 2500 years. Does it get told any more? Who knows, but that is how things look from the perspective of the ant. We now need to see things from the perspective of the grasshopper.

MODERN VERSION:

The ant works hard in the withering heat and the rain all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while he is cold and starving.

Their ABC, the Fairfax Press, Getup, and Crikey show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. Australia is stunned by the sharp contrast.

How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?

Kermit the Frog appears on ABC News with Sally Sara and Wendy Harmer along with the grasshopper and everybody cries when they sing, ‘It’s Not Easy Being Green.’ Fran Kelly sings Kumbaya with the Grasshopper and his mates at Breakfast on RN.

Getup stages a demonstration in front of the ant’s house where the news stations film the group singing, ‘We Shall Overcome.’

Then, Sarah Sea Patrol has the group kneel down to pray for the grasshopper’s sake. Jay Weatherill condemns the ant and blames Prime Minister Turnbull, former PM Tony Abbott, Josh Frydenberg, Eric Abetz, Kevin Andrews, George Christensen, and Craig Kelly for the Grasshopper’s’ plight.

Tony Burke and Bill Shorten explain in an interview with Sarah Ferguson that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.

Finally, the ALP and the Greens in the senate draft the Economic Equity and Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.

The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the Queensland’s Palace Cook, and given to the grasshopper.

The story ends as we see the grasshopper and his free-loading friends finishing up the last bits of the ant’s food while the government house he is in, which, as you recall, just happens to be the ant’s old house, crumbles around them because the grasshopper doesn’t maintain It.

The ant has disappeared in the Snowy Mountains never to be seen again.

The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident, and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize and ramshackle the once prosperous and peaceful neighbourhood.

The entire nation’s economy collapses bringing the rest of the free world with it.

MORAL OF THE STORY:

Be careful how you vote in the next election.

You may wish to pass this on to other ants, but don’t bother sending it on to any grasshoppers because they wouldn’t understand it, anyway.

AND THE STORY CONTINUES: from Ricky Gervais via mh, this time involving mice.

And No Hillary!

From New Chum on a previous post: Big List of 170 Trump accomplishments in 340 days with the sub-head: “Most comprehensive compilation of 1st-year achievements”. There are 170 but will list only the first and last. You can read the rest yourself to become the most popular person at your New Year’s party tonight.

170. EPA reform: More than 700 people have left the Environmental Protection Agency since Trump took office, nearly a quarter of the way toward its goal of shrinking the agency to Reagan-administration levels. . . .

1. Technology: After his election, Trump met with top tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, Bill Gates of Microsoft and Jeff Bezos of Amazon. According to Gates, it was “a good conversation about innovation, how it can help in health, education, the impact of foreign aid and energy, and a wide-ranging conversation about power of innovation.”

And while we’re at it, my best wishes to you all for the coming year.

Making Iran Great Again

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That’s from Drudge. This is from Instapundit.

CNN’S IRAN CORRESPONDENT: World Thinks That America Doesn’t Have A ‘Moral Leg To Stand On’ [VIDEO].

And as Ace notes, “This Is CNN: Oh, they did cover the Iran rallies. The pro-government Iran rallies, I mean.”

Meanwhile, as Stephen Miller writes at Fox News, “The New York Times simply described the protests as economic grievances, the same way Iranian state-run television described them,” adding:

How will the Obama Presidential Library wing look celebrating a nuclear deal with an oppressive Iranian regime that could possibly be deposed by security forces and the military joining with protesters, thirsty for democracy and a return to an Iran before the 1979 revolution?

More to the point, how will it look if the Trump administration, of all things, facilitates and encourages such change in Iran?

The prospect of this is not lost on the self-styled resistance and anti-Trump media, all too anxious to witness the ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Obama Library or hand a Nobel Prize to former Secretary of State John Kerry.

Overseeing the fall of an oppressive, hardline Iranian regime that sponsors terror all around the globe – followed by the rise of a democratic Iran not interested in aggression against its neighbors – would be a foreign policy victory for President Trump, one of the biggest for a president since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Take a bow, Valerie Jarrett and Ben Rhodes: In order to buy an extra 15 minutes for the charade of Obama’s Iran deal, you’ve reduced the DNC-MSM to shilling for the Iranian mullahs. I’ve heard vague reports they’re not entirely woke when it comes to LGBT issues and intersectional feminism, but I’m sure that’s all just rumors and hearsay.