A comprehensive summary of Say’s Law

canlorbe-conversation-with-steve-kates

An interview with me on Say’s Law by the French journalist Grégoire Canlorbe has just been published in Man and the Economy, the journal of The Coase Society. It is the most comprehensive summary statement I have put together of Say’s Law – it runs to 31 pages – and I could not be more grateful to Grégoire who spent more than a year in discussing the relevant issues with me before we actually got down to the interview. You can download a copy of the article here .

Say’s Law remains the single most important principle in all of economics. Policy decisions that go against the grain of Say’s Law are guaranteed to fail, for which the evidence remains overwhelming. The obvious failure of every one of the stimulus packages that were attempted after the GFC, along with the failures that have been associated with attempts to stimulate investment by reducing rates of interest, ought to have at least made some economists consider that perhaps Say’s Law is valid. The reason this does not happen is that virtually no economist understands even what the underlying principle of Say’s Law is. My article will, I hope, at least create some interest in what had been the bedrock proposition of classical economic theory almost from the time of Adam Smith through until the publication of The General Theory in 1936.

The journal is itself attempting to redirect economic theory in a more fruitful direction. These are the journal’s published objectives.

When modern economics was born in the 18th century, Adam Smith made it a historical study of man and the rising commercial society. For Smith, economics is first and foremost concerned with wealth-creation, where the division of labor is the key organizing principle. In the next century, David Ricardo shifted the focus of economics from production to distribution. Over the course of the 20th century, economics has gradually metamorphosed into the logic of choice and taken mathematics as its language. These two transformations have together made economics a towering discipline in the social sciences. But this achievement comes with a heavy price. Economics has largely become a theory-driven subject, severed from the ordinary business of life. Rather than seeing this disconnection as a fatal flaw undermining the vitality of the discipline, many economists take pride in that economics is no longer confined to any subject matter, but stands as a versatile, subject-free analytical approach.

The Coase Society aims to reorient economics as a study of man and the economy. The human economy is a man-made, evolving complex system of cooperation and competition. The defining character of the market economy is its continuous innovation, churning out novel products from the constantly adapting structure of production. This dynamics is kept alive by entrepreneurship and the growth of knowledge. To understand how this open system works requires both empirical and theoretical efforts. But theory-building, unless informed and disciplined by facts on the ground, can easily degenerate into “blackboard economics”. Empirical work is most valuable only when it changes the way we look at the problem. The paucity of systematic interaction and mutual learning between empiricists and theorists and the lack of competition in research methodology in modern economics have severely sterilized the discipline.

Man and the Economy is not to replace the prevailing paradigm in economics with what the Society believes as a different and superior one. Such a paradigm simply does not exist yet. But economics as currently practiced ought to change. Working with students of economies across disciplines and all over the world, and bringing diversity and competition into the marketplace for economics ideas, Man and the Economy can help to make it happen. We welcome empirical (historical, qualitative, statistical, experimental) investigations and theoretical explorations that deepen our understanding of how the economy works and how it changes over time. Man and the Economy is keen to publish articles that examine how the market economy spreads throughout the globe and adapts to local conditions as well as studies that cross disciplinary boundaries and/or integrate diverse methods to shed light on the working of the economy.

A necessary journal for our times.

Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen

People who write for a living ought to get out a bit more. This is from Andrew Bolt who clarifies what he was saying last week in his post on Buffoon Trump is just the symptom. He has now written a follow-up on Trump vs the elites. Here’s the point, which I agree with:

The elites are destroying the man, Donald Trump.

But they will play with fire if they ignore his message and Trump, with nothing left to lose, is now shouting it out loud. Here is its essence, in his speech on Thursday:

Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt — now, when I say ‘corrupt,’ I’m talking about totally corrupt — political establishment, with a new government controlled by you, the American people. There is nothing the political establishment will not do — no lie that they won’t tell, to hold their prestige and power at your expense. And that’s what’s been happening.

They will play with fire if Donald Trump is not elected president in November, full stop! He is irreplaceable. No one else can do what he might just possibly be able to. No one.

I spent 24 years as the Chief Economist for the Chamber of Commerce and I met no end of people just like him. If you want to run a business of any size, his is the personality type that is an absolute necessity if you are to succeed. Trump is in the construction business, for heaven’s sake. Ever seen the unions from the construction industry? Ever tried to get something built on time and within budget? When you look at Trump, you are looking at possibly the only kind of personality type that works at that level. I admired these people endlessly but I couldn’t do what they did. I used to be involved with union negotiations on the very periphery and these are not for the faint-hearted. And the one characteristic these business people had in common was the ability to lean hard strong wilfully and with no let up into people who would wreck their businesses if they could.

But what most of these people did not have was a clue how the economic system worked. That was my job, to explain to governments, the public service, the public, and sometimes even to them, what was necessary to make a market economy work. Very few of the people I dealt with had much of an idea about the economic and political system that surrounds us, the one that makes us the most prosperous people in history.

What makes Donald Trump different is that he does understand the politics and the economics. I only remember a single person I dealt with on my Economics Committee who was anywhere near his equal and he was gold. What you have in Donald Trump is someone – however “buffoonish” you might think him to be – who by force of personality will be able to achieve ends no one else before him would have been able to do, and in an international and domestic environment which has seldom been as explosive as the one we face right now. Who would you prefer to negotiate with the Russians, or the Syrians, or Iran – Donald or Hillary? Who do you think will genuinely wipe out ISIS? It’s not even a contest.

Alpha males and females are a breed apart. They are rare but are the natural leaders of any society (like Margaret Thatcher). Donald Trump is on our side in every issue of the moment, and what you must hope for with all your heart is that he wins the election in November. I will not listen to such idiocies about his personal eccentricities and personality flaws when the stakes are as high as they are. The sunshine conservatives who would hesitate for a fraction of a second in making Donald Trump the American president are not on our side.

A bit of advice from our most recent Nobel Laureate in Literature which I hope will make others think about things and what’s at stake:

“Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’.”

Another take on sunshine conservatives

This one by Publius Decius Mus titled, It’s Clear That Conservatism, Inc. Wants Trump To Lose. To be read in full, but I found this summary quite accurate:

It’s now abundantly clear that most of Conservatism, Inc. wants Trump to lose and is giddy at the prospect. They’re dancing not just on his political grave (prematurely, and perhaps mistakenly) but on the supposed despondency of the rest of us over Trump’s presumed impending loss.

Let’s be clear what this really boils down to, in a functional sense. It means: “We’re thrilled that Trump is going to lose. And if that necessarily means a Hillary win, well, we’re fine with that, with the certainty that the country will keep moving left. We have no problem with another four or eight years of strip-mining the heartland with ‘free trade’ and giveaways to high-tech and high finance. We have no substantive objection to granting de facto or de jure amnesty to 12 million or more illegal aliens. We will present no serious opposition to allowing 1-2 million young Muslim men into the country. And when Hillary goes pedal-to-the-floor on the entire Prog-left agenda—socially, culturally, and economically—that’s OK too. We’re happy about this because it will be just desserts for all you deplorable trogs who didn’t listen to us but instead supported Trump against our orders. We’re content to hand the country to a woman and an agenda we’ve outwardly spent our whole careers opposing just so you can eat crow.”

And when Hillary wins which these idiots have been pushing for, what will be the result, for them:

The time is coming when you will no longer be so useful, which points to my second expectation. I believe the Left, as it increasingly feels its oats, will openly discard the pretense that it need face any opposition. It’s already started. This will rise to a crescendo during the 2020 election, which the Left will of course win, after which it will be open-season on remaining “conservative” dissent. Audits. Investigations. Prosecutions. Regulatory dictates. Media leaks. Denunciations from the bully pulpit. SJW witch-hunts. The whole panoply of persecution tools now at their disposal, plus some they’ve yet to deploy or invent.

It’s not over till it’s over, and it’s not over. As for sunshine conservatism, that however is over and out.

Bob Dylan’s Nobel Prize for Literature

As you no doubt all know, Bob Dylan has won the Nobel Prize for literature, “for having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition”. Possibly the greatest lyricist of our time, and if not the most melodic voice, you can listen to others sing his songs if you prefer. This is my favourite Dylan song, sung by Peter, Paul & Mary. If you prefer the simpler, more heavy-hearted version by Dylan himself, you can find it here. It seems I was already nostalgic about my past almost before I had even had one.

Unequivocally equivocal support for Donald

That’s setting them straight:

It is with a heavy heart that I condemn the actions of GOP presidential nominee Donald J. Trump, and I encourage you to vote for him on November 8.

As the allegations of sexual assault pile up, my conscience will not allow me to support the man I plan to vote for. No woman should ever live in fear of someone like Donald Trump, who is going to Make America Great Again.

Four more years with a Democrat in the White House could mean the destruction of our great nation, and it can only be prevented by electing the man I repudiate in the strongest possible terms.

Donald Trump is a disgrace to the Republican Party and to the United States of America, and I hope you’ll join me in supporting him on Election Day!

What more is there to say?

Once again they are coming for the Jews first

An article by Jonathan Sacks on Antisemitism and the End of Europe picked up at Quadrant Online. The cliche how first they came for the Jews is an actual truth. First they come for the group least able to protect itself and with the perennial outsider status. The most ironic part is that the new antisemitism is driven by the left’s deranged hatred of Christianity, which causes it to join in with the most dangerous ideological menace in the world. One part of the article below, but read it all, long though it may be.

If Europe lets itself be dragged down that road again, this will be the story told in times to come. First they came for the Jews. Then for the Christians. Then for the gays. Then for the atheists. Until there was nothing left of Europe’s soul but a distant, fading memory.

There will, by then, be nothing left of “Europe” other than a bit of geography and a few ancient monuments, assuming even they are allowed to remain.

Another sunshine conservative

Andrew Bolt has a column behind the Murdoch paywall on Buffoon Trump is just the symptom Here’s what you can get at the link:

THE question now isn’t whether Donald Trump is just a moron or an outright menace who could blow up the world.

The question is why a braggart, buffoon, liar, narcissist and sexist with almost no political principles came so close to becoming president of the world’s greatest power.

Meanwhile, the top fifteen comments.

1) Hillary Clinton takes tens of millions of dollars in donations from the rich Sunni Arab States and wants to increase islamic immigration to the USA by around 550% even when she acknowledges in leaked emails that security cannot be guaranteed and there are large very large problems with integration… she also wants this unfettered Islamic migration for the rest of the world … She also believes in open borders for the USA and in economic and governmental Globalization… basically a world government along the lines of the EU… Frankly I really don’t care how crass Donald is

2) The reason is because he is the ONLY person prepared to confront the mind numbing political correctness that is turning our society into a herd of dull obedient sheep.

3) Donald maybe crass but Hilary is evil

4) I thought it was only the left that threw insults (according to Bolt). Just shows Bolt is no different from the rest. Use personal abuse when you can’t argue the facts. Bolt is entitled to his view but he is just another talking head who has become a legend in his own lunch box. I have followed his stuff since he started his blog and although I have disagreed with him on quite a few issues that he got on his hobby-horse with,

But this, and his many, anti-Trump rants is the end for me. I stuck with the Liberals for 50 years and look what that has done. I am out of here and to hell with the Republicans, Democrats, Liberals and Socialists.

5) I see you have taken the same bus as the anti-Trump air pirates. Trump did this, trump did that, ad nauseum. Nothing about the avalanche of material against Clinton, enough in fact to put her in jail if she wasn’t running for Presidency, unlike Trump who said some nasty words but did nothing illegal. Oh well let the establishment get their next puppet. The Americans must love the status quo, which in effect means the slippery decline into chaos and destruction. Don’t get me wrong I don’t like either candidate but under Trump at least the US has a chance no matter how small to slow down the decline. With Clinton there is no chance – in fact she will accelerate it. Hmmm. Perhaps that’s why we should hope for Clinton to become President – to get it over and done with ASAP.

6) Andrew if you jump on the bandwagon with left in condemning writing off Trump …be careful your popularity doesn’t go in the same directions as Turnbull’s Libs…A huge number of people both here and in the States still are right behind him

7) So you’re happy to see hillary stack the supreme Court and have it attack free speech and gun ownership?

8) You know why Andrew, because the people are sick and tired of all this PC BS the media is running. We know when the United Nations comes out and says “don’t vote for Donald’ that is exactly what we will do.

9) Same reason Hansen is back, Farage in the UK, Le Pen in France, Wilders in the Netherlands, Golden Dawn in Greece, AFD in Germany, Establishment politicians stopped listening years ago but now they are actually going out of their way to provoke us with identity politics, eco twaddle, micro managing, abject failures and immoral trough gobbling parasites in every layer of govt.

10) You haven’t gone all leftie on us have you Andrew? I heard your PC rubbish on 2GB last night. I get the feeling you’re playing for a TV contract and neglecting your other paid gigs. I’ve worked with CEOs that speak just the way Trump did….10 years ago! I’ve heard women being just as forthright and crude about blokes. Why should Trump be barred from seeking election just because of words he uttered 10 years ago? Let the voters decide. Wasn’t that what you were championing once?

11) The media destroyed Tony Abbott, now it’s Trump’s turn.

12) The world will be a lot safer place with Trump as President then it would be with Clinton as leader.

13) No politician is prepared to say what Donald Trump says when he explains the dirty details the politicians and the establishment renters use to keep themselves in power at the expense of the ordinary folk. And the people are listening.

Donald Trump knows too much for his own good. I wouldn’t be surprised if one morning the headlines read he has had an “accident”.

The whole Ruling System stinks like a dead snake. I don’t care if he said “naughty” words privately about a beautiful woman – he didn’t turn around and rape her! Every red blooded man has said or thought these things.

He has given the people hope and they have become a Movement. He is a listener. As President, he will be very careful to get all facts first from the operators on the ground and advisers like Pence, Giuliano, Sessions and dozens more good people around him who have the American people at heart.

14) Even Clinton’s Democrat leader Obama doesn’t trust her. Obama said she will say anything and deliver nothing!

15) looks like Bolt has been bought. he is now investing his families future in the new world order, obviously been given a ticket for the bus to the shelter. Hope you have a plan B Mr Bolt because if your dream outcome doesn’t eventuate you will be held to account, like all Elites ( @ French History 101 ) if you do get your outcome it wont matter as the world war Clinton will start will finish the known world. lost respect for you, now a bona fide “Aussy Journo” who writes what they’re told to.

Throwing Hillary into the briar patch

Oh, please don’t throw me into the briar patch, cries Hillary, please no more of these terrible rape accusations about Bill, our former president and my loving husband. Oh please, let us not sidetrack ourselves, she pleads. Let us instead look at the real issues and not these minor matters, although the ones that apply to Donald Trump really are serious and should disqualify him from ever being president.

The latest from The New York Times: As protesters accuse her husband of rape, Clinton blasts Trump’s ‘scorched earth’ tactics. Ouch, ouch, this is killing me, she says.

Here’s the thing. Whatever else you might think, if Americans weren’t disgusted enough about Bill Clinton when he was president to ensure he was removed from office, it will not prevent his wife from winning this time round. It is only to the advantage of the Democrats the dwelling on Bill as a rapist. My beliefs on that have been reinforced in steel by this latest supposed sexualised video of Obama from 2008. But here is the key sentence:

The video, originally shot by CNN cameras, emerged Tuesday on Twitter, where it spread quickly.

CNN is known as the Clinton News Network for good reason. This would only have found its way into the world if it works for Hillary. There are no new votes based on how depraved Bill is or how Hillary had done all she could to cover it up. It may all be true, but so what? The election will be won or lost on the issues. This diversion will see Hillary president. A return to the issues that matter is the only thing that might still make Trump president.

And in case you don’t know about B’rer Rabbit and the briar patch, you can read the story here.

Read this now while there is still time

This is the incredible Introduction to a book by Paul Hellyer written in 1999. Hellyer had been a Liberal Party cabinet minister from the days before I left Canada when the Liberal Party was the party of business. The title is Stop Think, and given its message could have been written this morning on behalf of Donald Trump. It is the most accurate and prescient writing I have ever come across on anything. It may only just explain what now cannot be stopped, but there is still the possibility that Trump will win. This will help you understand how essential it is that he does. And to repeat, this was written in 1999.
__________

Have you ever tried to write a column or a book to say to the vast majority of economists and opinion leaders that they have got it all wrong; that they have set the world on a collision course with disaster? It is presumptuous, of course, but those of us who are dissenters, and our ranks are growing daily, have a moral obligation to ourselves to sound the alarm before it is too late.

We seem to be hell bent toward a world without borders. Someone has decided to eradicate the nation state as an effective political entity and to rob it of much of its power by moving back to the corporatism of the medieval society; this is not forward-looking but a wish to move back to the pre-democratic era. Decisions that have been the prerogative of national governments are being transferred to outsiders including the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and transnational corporations.

Apart from the dubious merit of such a massive transfer of power is the undeniable fact that it is being done without the advice or consent of the people whose lives are being affected. They, whoever they may be, are re-engineering the world without asking for our opinions and without giving us the opportunity to express them in any tangible way through the ballot box.

To add insult to injury, globalization is being pushed down our throats without the courtesy of any vision of what the world will look like when the revolutions has run its course. Who will be in charge? To whom will they be accountable? How will changes be effected? What recourse will there be for the people who believe they have been seriously disadvantaged in the process?

A skeptic might conclude that there are no satisfactory answers to these questions because globalization is, in reality, a smoke-screen for the biggest power grab in history. The wealthiest, most powerful, people in the world have become impatient with democracy which sets standards of conduct and taxes wealth to provide services for the common good. To paraphrase, their battle hymn is Arthur Christopher Benson’s immortal line, “God who made us mighty, make us mightier yet.”

This can be achieved by shackling the nation states; by taking away their right to determine the conditions upon which direct foreign investment is welcome; by insisting that they must admit goods produced under the most despicable of circumstances; by requiring that their land and assets be “for sale” to foreigners; and that their central banks be immune to political control.

The aim of the game is a world where nation states are powerless to protect their citizens from external shocks and developments; where governments are mere pawns in the hands of international banks, supranational corporations and world bureaucracies accountable to no one. To an extent considered inconceivable to many, the globalized world would be a world dominated by power and greed.

No one would deny that there are benefits to international action. Treaties to ban the use of land mines and a World Court to try persons accused of crimes against humanity may be steps in the right direction. Similarly there can be benefits to liberalized and freer trade, but only if it does not undermine the viability of national economies and if the rules include acceptable safeguards and standards in areas such as labor and environmental protection.

Those standards to not yet exist, and the transnational corporations sponsoring globalization are determined that they never will exist, except on a purely voluntary and consequently ineffective basis. No mandatory restrictions on their freedom of action are on the negotiating table.

If liberalized trade may ultimately bring about some positive results the same cannot be said about globalized financial services and unrestricted capital flows. They/ are a recipe for international instability and chaos and there is no existing or potential financial watchdog that can prevent it. The principal beneficiaries of such a system are the parasitical currency traders and short-term money lenders who, like vampires, live by sucking the life-blood from one target of convenience after another.

Yet this kind of system has been the object of the negotiations for a Multilateral Treaty on Investment under the OECD, the proposed Free Trade agreement for the Americas, the Article IV Amendments being pushed by the International Monetary Fund and other venues. They lead to a dead end that is difficult, almost impossible to reverse. Still, the trend must be reversed!

The claim that globalization is the road to nirvana for a desperate world is false. It is the road that will lead inevitably to another financial meltdown, the impoverishment of millions of innocent people and the death of democracy in any meaningful sense. This book is dedicated to alternatives that would lead to a world of greater justice and opportunity for all.

It is not intended to be anti-American because, in truth, it is not. Yet it is impossible to write about globalization, and the imposition of a neo-classical economic system with a track record of failure, without holding the coach accountable for a game plan resulting in injuries to most of the players.

Readers familiar with my work will note that some of the arguments have been borrowed from earlier books. Everyone will find a certain amount of repetition. This is not inadvertent. Some of the principal points need to be emphasized over and over again.

Finally, it must be admitted that I am of a generation unschooled in the niceties of political correctness and inclusive language. I hope that I may be forgiven for expressing my hopes without fear or favor.

Please share immediately

Normal political ad, right? Well then, read this: YouTube Hides and SLAPS WARNING on New Trump Ad About Hillary’s Health. Then go to the video at Youtube itself and there you really will see just those words when the video has finished:

“This video is unlisted. Be considerate and think twice before sharing.”

They don’t care what you think because they feel they have the 51% locked up. And if she wins, it will only get worse.

MURDOCH PRESS ADDITION: Another Murdoch shill, this time Janet Albrechtsen showing the same judgement she used in supporting Turnbull for PM: Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump II was a debased freak show. The top comments do, however, remain a source of solace since common sense still prevails somewhere. Here is the first one. You can go to the link to read the others:

You are absolutely correct Janet. The disenchantment with ‘the establishment’ or sneering political class will still be there, if not swell to anger. You can feel it now. Here in Australia too.

But all this talk of seeking to understand us ‘deplorables’ (I’m a professional female and post grad qualified) smacks of patronizing condescension. Are we to be ‘fixed’ through more of the same? More spin, more dishonesty, what the left like to call communications and the rest of us recognise as PC propaganda. Of course ‘they’ know what’s best for ‘us’.

You know, I put myself in that “bucket” not because I necessarily support Trump but can appreciate his disruptive role. In the bigger context we have something of a social rebellion underway. This wave of disenchantment hasn’t peaked yet.

The media is part of the problem. They have played an active role in the US election, more so than Putin, I would argue – if indeed he even is behind the hacking but wasn’t it good to know the truth about Clinton thanks to her own emails?

The utter hypocrisy of the predominantly left media has been something to witness. Trump is fair game but not the equally repugnant Clinton. Such one sidedness can only propel the momentum of this social uprising.

You’re right however in picking that the self satisfied smugness of those who mistakenly think they’re superior beings will endure, for now.

I was thinking along the lines of sanctimonious swill as I read Janet, but “self satisfied smugness” will do just as well.