Record temperatures and random chance

This is something I have been thinking about for a while but has been brought to a head by this article: Extreme weather in 2019 broke over 120,000 records in US: report.

Extreme weather incidents in 2019 set more than 120,000 daily records across the U.S. according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

The 122,055 records set include record daily high and low temperatures as well as record rain and snow.

CNN reported on the record events, noting heat waves that hit Alaska and raised temps to 90 degrees Fahrenheit, a winter storm that brought snow to Hawaii, and rain that flooded the Midwest and hurt crops.

The report comes after a year of devastating climate events, from Hurricane Dorian to record melting of ice sheets. Other countries also saw record-breaking heat and cold, and raging fires severely damaged the Amazon rainforest.

Note that these records are not just about heat, as in global warming, but about cold, and rain and other climate events that ended up breaking whatever had been the previous record. My quesion therefore is this, and I will stick to just record high temperatures.

If there are 365 days in a year, and a weather station has been in existence somewhere for say 120 years, how many days during any normal year will turn out to produce a record high temperature just by random chance?

As far as I can tell, there should be approximately three such record temperatures a year for each and every weather station. And if the station has only been running for 60 years say, then there should be around six days during the year that should produce a record high temperature. A new station should have 365 records a year and after a year 183.

This looks obvious to me. So is this right or wrong, and if it’s wrong, why is it wrong?

And of course, if it is right, then these weather cranks should shut up every time some record is broken somewhere since a new record is in itself meaningless.

Culpable monsters

UPDATE: Bushfires: Greta Thunberg lashes ‘political inaction’. Is it possible for her to be more stupid and obnoxious? Actually it is. This is only mid-level for her.

And from where we were before_______

The Greens, of course. Everyone cares about the environment with no exceptions. But really, first the response from Scott Morrison (now back in Oz): Action to be taken on managing fuel loads: Scott Morrison.

Scott Morrison has flagged a push to overhaul the management of fuel loads in national parks as well as the rules around land and native vegetation clearing as he warned the fires would rage on after the Christmas period.

In a media blitz this morning, the Prime Minister stood firm against ramping up Australia’s climate change commitments after meeting with NSW fire crews and opening the door for compensation for volunteers fighting the nearly 200 blazes across the nation.

Speaking on 2GB, Mr Morrison said that action was “absolutely” needed to better address “how fuel loads are managed in national parks” and said a greater focus should be placed on the “rules that sit around clearing trees” close to properties.

He warned that some people had been “quite difficult” in preventing progress in these areas but agreed it was necessary to change the existing rules.

“Some people” is it? Who are these people, which party are their representatives and who are their leaders?

Everyone is a “green” in some sense but not when it comes to this: Bushfires: More than 1000 homes set to be destroyed, and dead people as well. There are people who are personally responsible for this devastation which has nothing to do with global warming, but quite a lot to do with global idiocy.

Bosses cry out for more public money

Image result for broken wind farms

Nothing new here: Chief executives of Australia cry out for clear energy policy in survey of top business bosses. Comes with Investment in solar and wind farms drying up. This is a very good news story:

A sharp slump in new ­investment in wind and solar farms will continue unless a price is put on carbon or the Renewable Energy Target is extended beyond next year, the Clean Energy Council warns.

CEC chief executive Kane Thornton said ­investment in ­renewable energy had dropped by 60 per cent in the past year and declines would continue without government intervention. He said this would put pressure on power prices and ­reliability as coal generators aged.

The comments ignited a ­debate about whether renewable energy was the cheapest form of power, as advocates including Anthony Albanese and Malcolm Turnbull claim.

Advocates from the far Labor left, that is. On the other hand, there is this:

Energy Minister Angus Taylor said large-scale renewables ­projects would not receive any further government support. “The clean energy industry has assured us that the cost of renewables is now competitive with alternatives so we would expect investment to continue in the ­absence of subsidies,” he said.

There is money to be made in energy, lots of money, but not one cent of subsidy should be any part of it.

Captain Planet

I was sitting in the barber’s chair and chatting with the barber about her children (it’s a husband and wife barber shop where the kids wander through all the time) so I asked about what kind of environmental instruction her kids get, thinking mostly about the oldest girl who is around 13. But it was her son, in his first year at Kinder, who was being drenched with it. In fact, she told me, he is now a young fanatic, and was that very day going to be singing the Captain Planet song before the whole school. Me, never heard of Captain Planet, but clearly I am way behind the times. So if you are now to succeed me as the last person never to have heard of Captain Planet, you can learn more here.

Here are the words. And I noticed first off that their science goes back to the ancient Greeks with the division in fire, water, earth and air. Heart, I suppose, is to replace reason.

Earth!
Fire!
Wind!
Water!
Heart!

Go planet!

By your powers combined, I am Captain Planet!

Captain Planet, he’s our hero,
Gonna take pollution down to zero,
He’s our powers magnified,
And he’s fighting on the planet’s side

Captain Planet, he’s our hero,
Gonna take pollution down to zero,
Gonna help him put asunder,
Bad guys who like to loot and plunder

“You’ll pay for this Captain Planet!”

(chanting)
We’re the Planeteers,
You can be one too!
‘Cause saving our planet is the thing to do,
Looting and polluting is not the way,
Hear what Captain Planet has to say:

“THE POWER IS YOURS!!”

And these were the top 30 comments. If you want to know the kind of slide we are on, and how steep that slide is, read these through:

  1. We all let this dude down
  2. Sad kids don’t get messages like this these days
  3. When cartoons used to have substance.
  4. I still don’t litter because of Captain planet!
  5. i wish captain planet was real so he could save are planet right now
  6. Remember guys, Captain Planet isn’t real, but his enemies are. We have a duty to protect this planet. It is our only home. We don’t get another. Save the Amazon.
  7. I feel so depressed looking at this now, thinking how optimistic we were in the early ’90s, and how few people took the message to heart. The power was ours… and we wasted it.
  8. Ah 90s Saturday mornings!
  9. I still finish every last bit of product in my bottles because of captain planet.
  10. Memories of playing ‘Captain Planet’ with friends at the time and no one would want to be ‘Heart’ because it was the shit one.
  11. Need him to save the Amazon right now
  12. It’s too bad almost all of the Planeteers left to get real jobs
  13. The should make a 2019 movie of Captain Planet
  14. The Planeteers: The first benders.
  15. THE POWER IS YOURS! legendary 😂😂
  16. i wish i could have a time machine and go back to enjoy again those times
  17. The world trully needs Captain Planet right now.
  18. When cartoons were actually teaching kids good stuff…
  19. They should invite this guy to the next global warming conference
  20. Who’s watching this in 2019 and remembering their childhood?
  21. Me as a teenager: “Captain Planet is so corny. The save the trees message is so hamfisted! I can’t believe I ever watched this!” Me now: “I was fool! A fool! Please come back, Captain Planet! You were right all along!”
  22. Watched it when I was a kid I remember the lyrics
  23. When you realize the kids from Captain Planet came from The Magic School Bus!🤔😅
  24. 2019? Sad that this cartoon is still relevant to this day.
  25. Omg the nostalgia!! I used to LOVE this show. I tuned in EVERY morning to watch it. (luckily for me it was before school, so I was able to see it!!)
  26. “The Power is Yours” !! goosebumps ❤❤ people haven’t realised yet the power is in us to save this planet…
  27. Just a little trivia…Ted Turner created this animated series. Great job, Ted…1990…almost 30 years ago!
  28. Ahh the good old days when the environmental movement was cool and actually cared about the planet before it was taken over by politics and fear mongering pseudoscience
  29. We need you captain planet, more than ever. Come back for real.
  30. My mom just digged out Captain Planet bedding it’s in great condition my sons just watched this with me#2019

We have reverted back to the Dark Ages if not farther.

We are reaching new lows and not just in temperatures

Supporters carry placards as they march during the YouthStrike4Climate demonstration in central London on April 12, 2019. (Photo by Daniel LEAL-OLIVAS / AFP) (Photo credit should read DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP/Getty Images)

San Francisco breaks cold record as Bay Area freezes…

‘Global warming’ ‘Climate Change’ to Get Rebranding? 

What would it take for these supposedly educated fools to learn how to investigate such claims for themselves, to actually go about reading things that take a different view from the ones they hear all the time for which there is not an ounce of evidence? If they did do that, I would consider them actually educatable. As they are, they are just conformist nongs without a thought of their own.

But whatever blood may be on whichever hands, that blood is running a bit cold at the moment. It’s all part of the marketing plans these morons think is needed to get their message across about how the planet is heating, or cooling, or whatever it is doing that fits the narrative.

These are the kinds of sophisticates who in my  time used to think Uri Geller could bend spoons with the power of his mind. Although equally nonsensical, it did not endanger their own future or their future prosperity.

The stupidest man in American politics

As if where you put the plants inside China matters to global levels of CO2.

Meanwhile, at almost the same level of idiocy, we have this: China says developed countries lack ‘political will’ on climate goals.

Mr Zhao called for developed countries to honour financial commitments including providing US$100 billion to poorer states harmed by climate change.

The US$100 billion – which China has said it is entitled to part of – was a non-binding accompaniment to the Paris Agreement, and was the annual amount that rich countries pledged to muster by 2020.

They wouldn’t say it unless they thought there were people who would take it seriously. And there are!