Author Archives: lawofmarkets

You tell me, what is North Korea really up to?

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Political calculation is an art and a gift. It cannot be taught and much of it is luck. Yet here we are with the whole world watching so who is to say whether this is right or not: All signs point to North Korea preparing a bait-and-switch. Certainly not “all” signs, but some definitely are. The question is, how will this unfold? We want the North Koreans to abandon nuclear weapons. They want their little shop of horrors to survive with no outside interference. You all follow the news, so what’s going to happen? What should the United States and its allies do?

As a template in this sort of thing, the until-now Secret Transcripts of the Israeli “Security Cabinet” from 1967, which made all policy decisions leading up to the Six Day War and then after it was over, have just been released after fifty years. The SC was made up of the leaders of every party in the Knesset. This is how the documents are described:

The Six-Day War: classified documents unsealed 50 years after the conflict reveal: Jerusalem conquered almost by accident; Israel’s National Religious Party, forerunner to the settler movement, lobbied for military de-escalation at every turn; and nobody in Israel’s security cabinet seems to have seen the country’s most momentous war coming.

You already know what happened, but even so these are fascinating. Read them through and listen to the deliberations that were undertaken in real time. There are two halves, pre-war and post-war.

Part 1

Part 2.

Political calculation is the way everything in politics must be since the future will always be an unknown while everything has to be weighed up since there are no facts about the future. You can only hope for level-headed decision-making but no one gets it right every time while some are worse than others. Fifty years from now we will know what had happened in North Korea, and then we can read the transcripts of how the Americans were weighing things up. By then, who knows, Pyongyang may have become the richest city in the world.

ANOTHER TAKE ON NORTH KOREA: From Pushing North Korea and Iran to the brink:

By now, this much should be obvious to anyone paying close attention: Mr. Kim regards deliverable nuclear weapons as the great equalizer, the means by which he can keep America at bay while he plots to rule the entire Korean peninsula. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants such weapons in pursuit of an even more ambitious objective: dominating the Middle East and spreading what he calls the Islamic Revolution around the globe. “Death to America” is a longer-range goal, one that Mr. Kim would heartily endorse.

Nothing is obvious to me, but I hope what is clear to those involved reflects the underlying actual reality.

The politics of the environment

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Steve Hayward who wrote the article discussed on the decline but sadly not the fall of the politics of climate change wrote an earlier and related article on Conservatism and Climate Science. This is the core of the issue discussed:

The conservative ambivalence or hostility toward the intersection of science and policy can be broken down into three interconnected parts: theoretical, practical, and political. I begin by taking a brief tour through these three dimensions, for they help explain why appeals to scientific authority or “consensus” are guaranteed to be effective means of alienating conservatives and spurring their opposition to most climate initiatives. At the root of many controversies today, going far beyond climate change, are starkly different perspectives between left and right about the nature and meaning of reason and the place of science.

This is his final conclusion found at the very end:

Liberals and environmentalists would do well to take on board the categorical imperative of climate policy from a conservative point of view, namely, that whatever policies are developed, they must be compatible with individual liberty and democratic institutions, and cannot rely on coercive or unaccountable bureaucratic administration.

Nice thought, except that for liberals and environmentalists, who are largely the same group, the very aim is to achieve coercive and unaccountable bureaucratic administration. They are not interested in the issues or in finding the dimension of the problems involved and seeking solutions to whatever problems there are. Their only interest is taking control over our lives and running things themselves without interference.

The political calculations behind the Six Day War

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The Secret Transcripts of the Israeli “Security Cabinet” which made all policy decisions leading up to the Six Day War and then after it was over. The SC was made up of the leaders of every party in the Knesset. This is how the documents are described:

The Six-Day War: classified documents unsealed 50 years after the conflict reveal: Jerusalem conquered almost by accident; Israel’s National Religious Party, forerunner to the settler movement, lobbied for military de-escalation at every turn; and nobody in Israel’s security cabinet seems to have seen the country’s most momentous war coming.

You already know what happened, but even so these are fascinating. Read them through:

Part 1

Part 2.

Political calculation is the way everything is since the future will always be an unknown so everything has to be weighed up. You can only hope that such level-headed decision making continues.

500 days gone with 2500 more to come

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Go on. Play it!

With this from Media blackout: Trump’s 60-point accomplishment list of ‘American Greatness’.

In his first 500 days in office President Donald J. Trump has achieved results domestically and internationally for the American people.

  • Since taking office, President Trump has strengthened American leadership, security, prosperity, and accountability.
  • After 500 days, the results are clear: the American economy is stronger, American workers are experiencing more opportunities, confidence is soaring, and business is booming.
  • President Trump has re-asserted American leadership on the world stage, secured vital investments in our military, and stood up against threats to our national security.
  • President Trump has put the American people first and made government more accountable.

AMERICA’S ECONOMY IS STRONGER: The American economy is stronger today and American workers are better off thanks to President Trump’s pro-growth agenda.

  • Nearly 3 million jobs have been created since President Trump took office.
  • 304,000 manufacturing jobs have been created since President Trump took office, and manufacturing employment stands at its highest level since December 2008.
  • 337,000 construction jobs have been created since President Trump took office, and construction employment stands at its highest level since June 2008.
  • Under President Trump, the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.8, the lowest rate since April 2000, and job openings have reached 6.6 million, the highest level recorded.
  • 67 percent of Americans believe now is a good time to find a quality job, according to Gallup.
  • Only under President Trump have more than 50 percent of Americans believed it is a good time to find a quality job since Gallup began asking the question 17 years ago.
  • President Trump prioritized job training and workforce development to empower workers to seize more opportunities, signing an Executive Order to expand apprenticeship opportunities.
  • President Trump has restored confidence in the American economy, with confidence among both consumers and businesses reaching historic highs.
  • Consumer confidence in current conditions has reached a 17-year high, according to the Conference Board.
  • Optimism among manufacturers has hit record highs under President Trump, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.
  • Small business optimism has sustained record-high levels under President Trump according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
  • President Trump signed the historic Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law, cutting taxes for American families and making American business more competitive.
  • American families received $3.2 trillion in gross tax cuts and saw the child tax credit double.
  • The top corporate tax rate was lowered from 35 percent to 21 percent so American businesses could be more competitive.
  • President Trump has rolled back unnecessary job-killing regulations beyond expectations.
  • In 2017, President Trump far exceeded his promise to eliminate regulations at a two-to-one ratio, issuing 22 deregulatory actions for every new regulatory action.
  • The Administration rolled back rules and regulations harming farmers and energy producers, such as the Waters of the United States Rule and the Clean Power Plan.
  • Regional and community banks and credit unions got relief after President Trump signed legislation reducing harmful requirements imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act.
  • Since taking office, President Trump has advanced free, fair, and reciprocal trade deals that protect American workers, ending decades of destructive trade policies.
  • Days after taking office, the President withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations and agreement.
  • President Trump’s Administration is working to defend American intellectual property from China’s unfair practices through a range of actions.
  • The President improved the KORUS trade agreement with the Republic of Korea, which will allow more U.S. automobile exports to South Korea with lower tariffs and increase U.S. pharmaceutical access to South Korea.
  • American agriculture has gained access to new markets under President Trump.

AMERICA IS WINNING ON THE WORLD STAGE: President Trump has re-asserted American leadership on the world stage and is achieving results for the American people.

  • President Trump followed through on his promise to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  • President Trump ordered an end to United States participation in the horrible Iran deal and immediately began the process of re-imposing sanctions that had been lifted or waived.
  • The President has taken action to confront aggression by Iran and its proxies.
  • The Department of the Treasury has issued a range of sanctions targeting Iranian activities and entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force.
  • Under President Trump, the United States has led an unprecedented global campaign to achieve the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
  • President Trump’s leadership has contributed to the return of 17 Americans held overseas.
  • In May 2018 alone, Venezuela released one American and North Korea released three Americans who came home to the United States.
  • The President has secured historic increases in defense funding in order to rebuild our Nation’s military with the resources they need, after years of harmful sequester.
  • President Trump signed legislation to provide $700 billion in defense spending for fiscal year (FY) 2018 and $716 billion for FY 2019.
  • The United States has worked with international allies to decimate ISIS.
  • President Trump ordered strikes against Syria in response to the regime’s use of chemical weapons in April 2017 and April 2018.
  • The Trump Administration has imposed a range of sanctions on the Maduro dictatorship in Venezuela, including sanctions targeting Maduro and other senior government officials.

AMERICA’S COMMUNITIES ARE SAFER AND MORE SECURE: President Trump has worked to secure our borders, enforce our immigration laws, and protect the safety and security of American communities.

  • Despite limited resources and obstruction from Congress, President Trump has worked to take control of our border and enforce our immigration laws.
  • President Trump has called on Congress to provide the resources needed to secure our borders and close loopholes that prevent immigration laws from being fully enforced.
  • President Trump authorized the deployment of the National Guard to help secure our borders.
  • President Trump’s Administration has carried out immigration enforcement efforts based on the rule of law.
  • From the start of President Trump’s Administration to the end of FY 2017, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) made 110,568 arrests of illegal aliens.
  • Arrests made in this timeframe represented a 42 percent increase from the same timeframe in FY 2016.
  • Of the 110,568 arrests made, 92 percent had a criminal conviction, pending criminal charge, were an ICE fugitive, or had a reinstated final order of removal.
  • President Trump has made clear that his Administration will continue to combat the threat of MS-13 in order to protect communities from the horrendous violence the gang has spread.
  • In 2017, the Department of Justice worked with partners in Central America to file criminal charges against more than 4,000 members of MS-13.
  • The Trump Administration has cracked down on the import and distribution of illegal drugs in order to stop them from reaching our communities and causing even more devastation.
  • As of April 2018, U.S. Border Patrol has seized 284 pounds of fentanyl in FY 2018, already surpassing the total of 181 pounds seized in FY 2017.
  • The President has launched a nationwide effort to fight the opioid crisis, which has devastated communities across America.
  • The President’s Opioid Initiative seeks to reduce drug demand, cut off the flow of illicit drugs, and save lives by expanding treatment opportunities.
  • President Trump signed an omnibus spending bill which provides nearly $4 billion to address the opioid epidemic.
  • The bill included $1 billion for grants focused on the hardest hit States and Tribes and provided funding for a public-private research partnership on pain and addiction.

AMERICA’S GOVERNMENT IS MORE ACCOUNTABLE: Since taking office, President Trump has worked to ensure government is more accountable to the American people.

  • President Trump has confirmed the most circuit court judges of any President in their first year, and secured Justice Neil Gorsuch’s confirmation to the United States Supreme Court.
  • President Trump has signed legislation to bring more accountability to the Department of Veterans Affairs and provide our veterans with more choice in the care they receive.
  • President Trump signed the Department of Veterans Affairs Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act of 2017, improving processes for addressing misconduct.
  • President Trump signed the VA Choice and Quality Employment Act into law, authorizing $2.1 billion in additional funds for the Veterans Choice Program.
  • President Trump successfully eliminated the penalty for Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate.
  • The President’s Administration is seeking to provide more affordable health coverage and broader access to affordable alternatives to Obamacare plans.
  • President Trump has released a blueprint to lower drug prices for Americans.
  • President Trump has ensured that the religious liberties and conscience of Americans are protected and respected by the Federal government.
  • President Trump signed an Executive Order to protect the free speech and religious liberties of groups such as the Little Sisters of the Poor.
  • The Department of Justice issued guidance to all executive agencies on protecting religious liberty in federal programs.

So why are we the last to know?

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There’s an old story I heard when I first came to Australia about how the original inhabitants of Tasmania had lost the art of fishing, so lived on an island surrounded by water but never ate the fish that swam in the oceans around them. So one day others may tell of a people who inhabited an island made out of coal but chose to drive their electricity using windmills while running water up hill. In this vein, let me draw the following to your attention, from The Wall Street Journal: Climate change is over. There at the start we find this:

No, I’m not saying the climate will not change in the future, or that human influence on the climate is negligible. I mean simply that climate change is no longer a pre-eminent policy issue. All that remains is boilerplate rhetoric from the political class, frivolous nuisance lawsuits, and bureaucratic mandates on behalf of special-interest renewable-energy rent seekers.

Judged by deeds rather than words, most national governments are backing away from forced-marched decarbonization. You can date the arc of climate change as a policy priority from 1988, when highly publicized congressional hearings first elevated the issue, to 2018. President Trump’s ostentatious withdrawal from the Paris Agreement merely ratified a trend long becoming evident.

This is a trillion-dollar issue, that if you get it wrong, will lower living standards by substantial amounts for a generation at least and potentially more. From the same kinds of people who brought you Venezuela, the climate change spectre has made some people rich, has made obscure academics in obscure corners of the world of research famous and wealthy, has scared no end of our citizens about some possible rising of the oceans and an over-heated planet fifty years into the future, but has not produced a single verifiable fact about the climate.

If no one else is shooting themselves in the foot, then why are we? It’s time to stop, and return to burning coal and start building nuclear power stations just like everyone else.

Feather duster

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Eight years on top but as gone as any politician has ever been. But I have to say, his supporters are more insane than is truly believable. This is the moronic Maureen Down writing in the NYT more than a year into the Trump presidency: Obama – Just Too Good for Us. I looked everywhere for a trace of irony but none I could find. Try yourself, read through the whole article, but this really is what she believes:

We just weren’t ready for his amazing awesomeness.

Let us hope we can also add his kind shall not pass this way again. And then this as a keepsake.

Ben Rhodes on election night hearing that DJT is about to become PDT. How detached these people are from reality is possibly the strangest revelation this election has brought to light. But savour this while you can. In about a year I suspect you will be unable to find this video no matter how hard you look. On the other hand, it may become the most common parody video of all time, beating even Hitler’s Downfall. For example:

Alas eight years goes by really quickly, and four years even more quickly. With such people everywhere, you never know just how badly things can turn out.

AND LET ME NOW ADD THIS: I realise how hard it can sometimes be to believe that those on the left believe the things they do. Satire is impossible since they are more unintentionally satirical than anyone could make up about them. There is no irony on the left. So let me therefore bring your attention to this article by the great Roger Kimball: A Clueless “Final Year”. To be read through yourself, but this gets to the point:

The breathtaking presumption of virtue, the unshakeable confidence in one’s moral election, is patent throughout this documentary. It is also vividly on view in a New York Times story from a couple of days ago about Obama’s reaction to Donald Trump’s triumph in the 2016 election: How Trump’s Election Shook Obama: ‘What if We Were Wrong?’. The irony in the title is that no one involved in the story, not Obama, not Ben Rhodes, not the Times reporter seriously entertains the question “What if we were wrong?”

Yes, Obama wonders whether “we pushed too far.” “Maybe,” he says, “people [though not, of course, his people] just want to fall back into their tribe.” But there is no suggestion he might not think he is traveling in the vanguard of history. “Sometimes I wonder whether I was 10 or 20 years too early,” he said. If only the world were elevated a little higher towards my plane of enlightenment, then people like me would still be in power and all would be right with the world! Amazing.

Supply-side economics in real time

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The American economy is bursting bounds almost previously unknown. From Instapundit where a discussion of the supply-side foundation for this transformation is found.

THOSE JOBS NUMBERS LOOK EVEN BETTER: The Washington Post grudgingly admits one amazing thing about today’s excellent jobs numbers – the black unemployment rate is now closer than it ever has been to the white unemployment rate. As the Post notes, in the past when the numbers got close it was because white unemployment was rising. That’s not the case today. Meanwhile, the New York Times says, “We Ran Out of Words to Describe How Good the Jobs Numbers Are.” It’s shocking what a supply-side cocktail of lower taxes, less regulation, and allowing businesses to get on with their jobs can do.

You are looking at the effects of classical economic policies, one more example of how not just useless but actually harmful modern macroeconomic policies are and how beneficial their removal is. All this is discussed on my Quora post: What is the difference between Keynesian and classical economics? which has just passed 1500 visits.

For a more complete story, let me again suggest you have a look at the third edition of my Free Market Economics. On the back cover you will see the following words written by the man who brought supply-side economics to the world:

‘This book presents the very embodiment of supply-side economics. At its very core is the entrepreneur trying to work out what to do in a world of deep uncertainty in which the future cannot be known. Crucially, the book is entirely un-Keynesian, restoring Say’s Law to the centre of economic theory, with its focus on value-adding production as the source of demand. If you would like to understand how an economy actually works, this is one of the few places I know of where you can find out.’
– Arthur B. Laffer, Laffer Associates, US

There seems to be a deep state in economics as well as in politics, where the economy is run for the benefit of crony capitalists, with governments parcelling out our savings either on their own pet projects or to their friends. This is serfdom and the road to poverty. Letting entrepreneurs make their own decisions on what to produce and how to do it actually seems to work. It’s not just balancing the budget; it is removing as much as possible the unproductive hand of government spending and over-regulation that is the only way to make an economy blossom.

I fear I don’t have enough resolve myself

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Tommy Robinson Drew Attention to ‘Grooming Gangs.’ Britain Has Persecuted Him…

That was from National Review relayed through Drudge. Glenn Reynolds at Instapundithas also linked to the article with these words:

“RAPE GANGS” IS A MORE ACCURATE TERM: Tommy Robinson Drew Attention to ‘Grooming Gangs.’ Britain Has Persecuted Him. . . . 

Read the whole thing. The British authorities have behaved contemptibly here. Their behavior is what one might expect from an occupation government under a foreign conqueror.

This then is from Powerline, and the question put was, how much resolve is there? And the unmistakable answer is there is hardly any resolve at all. This is the article: The Global Establishment Closes Ranks Against Tommy Robinson, but what I am more interested in are the comments that followed.

It’s the globalists against the nationalists across the board. In Britain, they want to censure free speech because the Deep state there is trying to overturn Brexit. In Italy, the globalists are subverting Democracy when it doesn’t return the results they want, just as they’re doing in America. For us, it isn’t about dems vs repubs, it’s globalists vs nationalists. the leadership of the GOPe side with the globaalists.

So instead of sequestering a single jury the entire country is kept from knowing the facts of the case.

The Islamists might as well be in charge in Britain, assuming that they aren’t in charge already.

Needless to say Islam opposes free speech. Muslims (and Muslim money) I suspect are driving the elite Brits.

The nice British politicians have been in control too long, have allowed massive immigration by mohammedans too long, have kow-towed to the filthy, rabid dog mohammedan invaders too long, have put up with the alien mohammedan ideology too long. It is time, and high time too get rid of those nice British politicians, one way or the other. Where are Nigel Farrage and Daniel Hannon and anyone–there must be others–who think as they do? The Saturday demonstration in front of Whitehall in support of Tommy must have some meaning. Is the whole UK going morally rotten? We were hoping it was just the politicians for life and the situation could be corrected.

Daniel Hannon? That articulate “conservative” gentleman actually favored Obama, don’t you know? And yes, the whole UK, at least their leadership and their establishment, have gone morally rotten and cowardly. Nigel Farage is an exception.

Britain is lost. It is ironic that the free countries in Europe are those that were in the Warsaw Pact. They saw tyranny up close and didn’t like it.

I don’t understand how the British themselves make sense to themselves about what is going on. It is a mystery and has been from the moment the story surrounding the events that are captured by the name “Rotherham” first came to light. Do the British “elites” really not care what happens to working class children where little girls are being systematically raped?

Tommy Robinson has been the acid test and we have failed that test completely

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How much resolve is there, was the question put. And the unmistakable answer is there is no resolve at all. This is the article at Powerline, The Global Establishment Closes Ranks Against Tommy Robinson, but what I am more interested in are the comments.

It’s the globalists against the nationalists across the board. In Britain, they want to censure free speech because the Deep state there is trying to overturn Brexit. In Italy, the globalists are subverting Democracy when it doesn’t return the results they want, just as they’re doing in America. For us, it isn’t about dems vs repubs, it’s globalists vs nationalists. the leadership of the GOPe side with the globaalists.

So instead of sequestering a single jury the entire country is kept from knowing the facts of the case.

The Islamists might as well be in charge in Britain, assuming that they aren’t in charge already.

Needless to say Islam opposes free speech. Muslims (and Muslim money) I suspect are driving the elite Brits.

The nice British politicians have been in control too long, have allowed massive immigration by mohammedans too long, have kow-towed to the filthy, rabid dog mohammedan invaders too long, have put up with the alien mohammedan ideology too long. It is time, and high time too get rid of those nice British politicians, one way or the other. Where are Nigel Farrage and Daniel Hannon and anyone–there must be others–who think as they do? The Saturday demonstration in front of Whitehall in support of Tommy must have some meaning. Is the whole UK going morally rotten? We were hoping it was just the politicians for life and the situation could be corrected.

Daniel Hannon? That articulate “conservative” gentleman actually favored Obama, don’t you know? And yes, the whole UK, at least their leadership and their establishment, have gone morally rotten and cowardly. Nigel Farage is an exception.

Britain is lost. It is ironic that the free countries in Europe are those that were in the Warsaw Pact. They saw tyranny up close and didn’t like it.

Harvey and Tommy

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How’s he gonna get a fair trial?

Compare and contrast: British Media: Lockstep Lies:

  • Did the Daily Mail’s lawyers have to check with the British government, which had placed a gag order on reporting about the arrest, to make sure that it was permissible to report on the protest, if not directly on the arrest itself?
  • It seems fair to say that the incident has shocked, outraged, and scared people around the world who, until now, had thought of the United Kingdom as a free country.
  • “Britain used to be a bastion of free speech. Today its leaders are behaving like North Korea and Saudi Arabia.” – Geert Wilders, MP; The Netherlands
  • Meanwhile, Robinson remains in jail for daring to exercise his free speech, and what the mainstream media have won back is the right to resume repeating their lockstep lies about who he is and what he stands for.