Law of Markets

Dedicated to the economics and politics of the free market

Law of Markets

How Long Will Interest Rates Stay Low?

A very good question. Back story here. These are the words.

How Long (Will Interest Rates Stay Low)?
by Merle Hazard
(c) 2016

Chorus 1
How long (how long) will interest rates stay low?
That’s the question, the whole world wants to know
How long (how long) will interest rates stay low?
It seems like if they’re going up, they’re going pretty slow

Verse 1
Our country’s central bank is really scared, that’s plain to see
When everything is leveraged, raising rates is misery
But keeping rates too low, too long, would cause us pain and sorrow
There is no easy option in a land of constant borrow

Chorus 2
How long (how long) will interest rates stay low?
That’s the question, the whole world wants to know
How long (how long) will borrowing be free?
How long will we be subsidized by savers and retirees?

Verse 2
Central banks around the world, not only in the States
Are each at work on lengthy slumps, their countries’ tragic fates
Legislatures will not spend to give sufficient boost
Lower interest rates are all that’s left to get their countries juiced

Chorus 3
How long (how long) will interest rates stay low?
If you could predict it, you could make a lot of dough
How long (how long) will interest rates stay depressed?
The answer…is anybody’s guess

Verse 3
Some say low rates are symptomatic, rather than the cure
I have a hunch they’re right. I can’t say I am sure.
But recovery has been long and slow, the crisis wounds are deep
So until we see inflation, money’s likely to be cheap

Chorus 4
Instrumental solos

Verse 4
Capital’s abundant, money’s not in short supply
China holds our Treas’ry bonds, although I wonder why
Start-ups happen in the cloud, few people are employed
If something could push rates back up, I’d be overjoyed

Chorus 5
How long (how long) will interest rates stay low?
That’s the question, the whole world wants to know
How long (how long) ‘til we really start to grow?
Interest rates are goin’ up, but they’re go-in’…pret-ty…slow….

And here he meets Arthur Laffer! Leads to another song about bond traders and even Milton Friedman.

Post-natal abortion (infanticide)

NORTHAM: If a mother is in labor, I can tell you exactly what would happen. The infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.

Here’s the backstory and commentary via Rush Limbaugh. But the video of the Governor of Virginia interviewed on radio demonstrates beyond all doubt that this is exactly what he said. The subsequent wish to clarify and explain has arisen only because of the fire this has lit, but not even remotely within the mainstream media.

I have only gone back to this, which is from January 30, because I have met people who have never heard a word of this, and will not believe it could possibly be true. I suspect it would not undermine their support for the left and the Democrats since there are more important principles at stake – don’t ask me what. The only evidence that the left is perfectly aware how barbaric this is comes from the fact that this kind of information is already hard to find on the net. If the Governor of Virginia is mentioned at all, it is only because when he was 25 years old in the 1980s he appeared in a photo either in blackface or wearing a KKK bedsheet when he had just graduated from med school, since which time he has been a paediatrician.

As for the health of the baby, this was also discussed at the link:

A tweet here from an MD and MBA, Omar Hamada . “I want to clear something up so that there is absolutely no doubt. I’m a Board-Certified OB/GYN who has delivered over 2,500 babies. There’s not a single fetal or maternal condition that requires third-trimester abortion. Not one. Delivery, yes,” all kinds of conditions that might require delivery, but, “Abortion, no.”

The “consent” of two doctors is the kind of formality that is all pretence. How a baby can get to full term and only then at the ninth month discover some deformity is so improbable that it is just said to confuse the debate. At least till now, and possibly for a bit into the future, that there is something radically wrong with the child remains the cover story for murdering babies.

And if you are looking for another take on this same thing: Modern philosophy, untethered from morality, is just nihilism in fancy dress. There you find:

The reality is that, without a moral construct, philosophy is simply a way to intellectualize whatever outcomes one prefers. That’s why Peter Singer, an endowed philosophy chair at Princeton University, can argue that parents should have a 30 days period after their baby is born to decide whether or not to kill the baby, a position even more extreme than that espoused by the average abortion-obsessed Leftist….

When I raised Singer as an example of the selfish, morality-free nihilism that passes for modern philosophy, the other people involved in the conversation were quite sure that I was making things up in order to justify my arcane, impractical conservative views. Then, when I offered to send them links proving Singer’s viewpoints, they hastily declined that offer. They did not want to know.

The reality is they do not want to know. They think being on the left, and being able to self-identify as socialists or some such thing, makes them nice people. In actual fact, it turns them into monsters, but self-satisfied monsters.

WE DON’T EVEN KNOW THE HALF OF IT: AND HERE IS SOME OF IT.

Planned Parenthood kept aborted babies alive to harvest organs, ex-technician says

Pro-life group releases 7th undercover video

In an undercover video released Wednesday, a former technician for a tissue-harvesting company details how an aborted baby was kept alive so that its heart could be harvested at a California Planned Parenthood facility, raising more legal questions about the group’s practices.

Holly O’Donnell, a former blood and tissue procurement technician for the biotech startup StemExpress, also said she was asked to harvest an intact brain from the late-term, male fetus whose heart was still beating after the abortion.

StemExpress supervisor “gave me the scissors and told me that I had to cut down the middle of the face. And I can’t even describe what that feels like,” said Ms. O’Donnell, who has been featured in earlier videos by the Center for Medical Progress, a pro-life group that previously had released six undercover clips involving Planned Parenthoodpersonnel and practices.

David Daleiden, the video project leader, said the undercover footage and interviews show that fetuses are sometimes delivered “intact and alive” before their organs are harvested.

The federal Born-Alive Infants Protection Act of 2002 says that when a child is born alive, including having a beating heart, he or she is a legal person and has a right to lifesaving medical care.

More at the link if you can stand it.

The economics of envy

Here’s a typical bit of leftist rubbish: Wealth concentration near ‘levels last seen during the Roaring Twenties,’ study finds. Such studies, and no doubt accurate to the third decimal. But suppose we just change the heading a bit:

Wealth levels near ‘levels last seen during the Roaring Twenties,’ study finds

Take the bottom ten percent today and their standard of living is much much higher than the top ten percent was then. They eat better, have better transportation (say cars and roads), improved entertainment (and right in their own living room) and live in larger, more spacious homes with an endless increase in labour-saving gadgetry.

The level of income inequality is invisible. It requires someone to try to measure two entirely different populations in entirely different periods of time, when in neither there are statistics that will actually measure what they are trying to find. But even if you could measure income inequality, so what? There will always be rich and there will always be poor. The rich today undoubtedly have more goods and services at their command than did the rich in the 1920s. But so do the poor.

What does not change is the level of envy among a large proportion of the population who are made bitter by the success of others. Envy is the worst of the seven deadly sins and there is no known cure. But the envious are everywhere and will take their revenge on the rest of us if they can.

Classical economic theory and employment

At the very core of the classical arguments against public spending as a means to raise employment is John Stuart Mill’s 1848 Fourth Proposition on Capital: “Demand for commodities is not demand for labour”. There is no relationship between the level of employment and the level of aggregate demand. Everything that matters happens on the supply side, with the only role of demand being what gets produced, but not how much or how many people are employed. It’s always been difficult to understand, but with macro now specifically stating that demand for commodities does raise the demand for labour, there is virtually no one who any longer even knows what Mill and the classics had said, never mind actually being able to explain why that might be. So with this in mind, there is a quite interesting story that just appeared the other day at Zero Hedge: Finland Abandons ‘Helicopter Money’ Experiment: No New Jobs Created. He’s the whole thing:

With socialists rising to the calls of the ‘free shit army’ and the ever-more-left-leaning liberal intelligentsia imagining ever-more-creative ways to pretend to fund their massive government interventions (Modern Monetary Theory), the topic of “QE for the people” or “helicopter money” or the more academic-sounding “Universal Basic Income” is becoming ever-more-prevalent.

Well, we have some more results in on the impact of Universal Basic Income (UBI) experiments – handing out free money to citizens with no strings attached.

As part of its experiment, in Finland 2,000 unemployed people aged 25-58 were paid a tax-free €560 (£490) monthly income. This was independent of any other income they had and not conditional on looking for work.

As Valuewalk reports, UBI-expert from the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Bath (UK), Dr Luke Martinellicomments:

“Universal basic income has ascended policy debates in recent years, motivated by the shortcomings of existing welfare systems, and our rapidly changing – and increasingly dysfunctional – labour markets.

“Yet despite the idea’s widespread appeal, there remain substantial and unanswered questions about its economic viability and political feasibility. This is why all eyes will be on Finland this Friday and why the results of its UBI experiment will be so revealing.

“We expect these results will provide us with the first really robust evidence on how UBI could affect changes in employment and people’s overall finances, as well as wider measures of wellbeing.”

So what were the results?

Simple (and Dr Martinelli – and the left – won’t like it):

1) People were happier, and

2) No new jobs were created.

As Yahoo reports, this was the widest such study to be conducted in recent years in Europe

“The recipients of a basic income had less stress symptoms as well as less difficulties to concentrate and less health problems than the control group,” Minna Ylikanno, lead researcher at Finland’s welfare authority Kela, said in a statement.

“They were also more confident in their future and in their ability to influence societal issues,” she added.

Results at this stage are preliminary and relate only to the first year of the study, meaning Friday’s findings are far from conclusive. But a hoped-for stimulus to levels of employment has not yet materialized, the project’s researchers said.

“The recipients of a basic income were no better or worse than the control group at finding employment in the open labour market”, Ohto Kanninen, research coordinator at the Labour Institute for Economic Research, said in a statement.

Shocker!!  Who could have seen that coming?

Give people free money for doing nothing, with no conditions, and they will be happier to sit around all day in non-productive utopia.

Finally, we note that, based on these results, Finland’s social affairs minister, Pirkko Mattila, conceded on Friday that the government has no plans to roll out the scheme across the whole country.

And let there be no doubt that whoever might have received this helicopter money would have spent it, to the last Euro.

2019 Battle Lines: Capitalism and Growth (L-N) versus Socialism and Degrowth (ALP)

The story is from the US and about them but applies to us just as well: 2020 Battle Lines: Capitalism and Growth (R) versus Socialism and Degrowth (D). Here is much of the article but there is more at the link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG9N4ZP5MQA

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a character familiar to anyone who has spent substantial time on campuses in the past two decades

She’s a walking, talking social justice warrior soundbite machine, someone whose knowledge is a mile wide and an inch deep. Social media, where she excels, is perfect for shallow but woke wisdom.

At one level, she is the gift Donald Trump and Republicans could not have hoped for in their wildest dreams. Her wacky Green New Deal is so preposterous in many of its details and in its totality, it is a caricature. It’s a prime example of what I call Progressive or Parody?, where it’s “very hard to distinguish progressive political and social positions from parody.”

That four of the leading Democrat presidential candidates (Harris, Warren, Booker, Gillibrand) rushed to co-sponsor or endorse the Green New Deal will be a theme Republicans will drive home from today through Election Day 2020. That these four kneecapped themselves as General Election candidates is Ocasio-Cortez’s greatest accomplishment (for Republicans) so far.

At another level, though, Ocasio-Cortez should be taken seriously precisely because she is a character familiar to anyone who has spent time on campuses in the past two decades. She represents an ignorant ahistorical adoration for socialism that has captured a significant portion of the Democratic Party. Socialists like Ocasio-Cortez are the energy in the Democratic Party, which explains why presidential candidates immediately jumped on her bandwagon.

Capitalism versus Socialism is one battle line for 2020. Whether or not the ultimate Democrat nominee endorses the Green New Deal, the Green New Deal will be made to be the Democrat platform whether Democrats like it or not. Let’s have a vote on Capitalism versus Socialism.

At another level, it’s not just Capitalism versus Socialism. In listening to a 2015 audio of Mark Levin, I heard a term I had not heard before: Degrowth.

What is Degrowth? An academic association devoted to Degrowth describes it as follows:

Sustainable degrowth is a downscaling of production and consumption that increases human well-being and enhances ecological conditions and equity on the planet. It calls for a future where societies live within their ecological means, with open, localized economies and resources more equally distributed through new forms of democratic institutions. Such societies will no longer have to “grow or die.” Material accumulation will no longer hold a prime position in the population’s cultural imaginary. The primacy of efficiency will be substituted by a focus on sufficiency, and innovation will no longer focus on technology for technology’s sake but will concentrate on new social and technical arrangements that will enable us to live convivially and frugally. Degrowth does not only challenge the centrality of GDP as an overarching policy objective but proposes a framework for transformation to a lower and sustainable level of production and consumption, a shrinking of the economic system to leave more space for human cooperation and ecosystems.

Watch this video promoting degrowth, and it sounds a lot like the Green New Deal.

___

And in Oz, these people have already blown up power stations and are dead set on a socialist-green agenda. There’s a lot of stupidity around. I just hope there isn’t that much, but we shall see soon enough.

The Green Socialist agenda

What is most useful in the greater scheme of things is that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is more proof than anyone could wish to have how mad they are, but also that they have an agenda. But just because you and I think they’re mad doesn’t mean they won’t get their way on much of what they seek. There are plenty out there just like them. Green Socialism is the farthest extreme of mass poverty creation ever devised, but as Maduro in Venezuela makes all too evident, just because they have wrecked the place does not mean you can change course once they take political power into their own hands. The rest is from Drudge this morning.

BEIN’ GREEN

DEMS GO ECO WILD!
Rebuild every single building in USA...
Phase out air travel in next 10 years...

TARGETS COW FLATULENCE...
Government-guaranteed job for all!
Money for people 'unwilling to work'... 
Socialist wish list...
2020 litmus test...
Print money to pay for it?
Ocasio-Cortez boosts progressive theory that deficits aren't so scary...
Cries at defund ICE press conference...
VIDEO: Venezuelan socialism victims send message to Americans... 

AND HERE IS THAT AGENDA: Taken down, probably on orders from Democrat Central Command, but you know the aims and intent still lurk in the hearts of evil doers everwhere. Here it is on Scribd.

The Green New Deal

If there is any lingering doubt how insane they are just read it for yourself.

Via Scott Johnson at Powerline: MS. Found in a Memory Hole.

The media is more dishonest than anyone can imagine

I received this note which really is astonishing:

Regarding SOTU: Did you notice at about the 1 hour 21 minute mark of USA Today’s SOTU broadcast they edited out the word “never” when Trump put down Socialism? USA Today used their 2 second delay privilege in “live” broadcasting to black out “never” so it sounded like Trump said “the US will … be a Socialist state”.

Watch, it’s just like he says – start at around 1:19:

It’s not a glitch. They really cannot bear the thought that the United States may not become a socialist country. They are not just dishonest, but evil.

I had put this version up since it was the first one available at Youtube. But they added afterwards the various so-called “fact checks” that attempt to counter the points the President made. They are the most vile liars imaginable, worse than the Soviet press who lied because of the threat of the gulag. These people do it because they are dishonest, and clearly wish to actually see the US, and the rest of us, become socialist tyrannies.

State of the Union one day later

Remember when the Democrats were going to stop Trump from delivering his State of the Union. Funny how he seems to get his way in the end. The Wall is next.

As for the politics, Trump’s State of the Union is an almost perfect dye-marker for your own political beliefs. You won’t see a more perfectly designed and written defence of conservative values in the modern world. And I agree with this from Instapundit.

ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT TRUMP’S SPEECH LAST NIGHT is how it seemed calculated to demolish all the standard anti-Trump tropes from the media and from the left and to do so with compelling imagery. Consider:

Trump’s a Nazi: Praise for Holocaust survivors, and a touching rendition of “Happy Birthday.” (With Trump waving his fingers like a conductor).

Trump hates minorities: Brags about record low black, Hispanic, and Asian unemployment — while white-clad Democratic women, overwhelmingly white themselves, sat prune-faced.

Trump’s a Russian tool: Withdrawing from the INF Treaty.

Trump’s a warmonger: Without me, Trump says, we’d be at war on the Korean peninsula. Also, I’m looking at pulling out of Afghanistan.

Trump hates women: Except he got even the prune-faced white-clad Democratic women up dancing (and chanting “USA! USA!”) when he talked about record female employment in and out of Congress.

And his rebuke to socialism was designed to strip the glamour that the media have tried to imbue it with by tying it to the abject misery of Venezuela.

The 70% of those who did not like the speech from the mean-spirited, Marxist-Progressive Democrats remains the problem. They really do want to turn the US into Venezuela. Ignorant fools they may be, but they still get to vote.

AND NOW THIS: The State of the Union set to music.

More at the link.

How to explain why socialism leads to poverty

It is a common mis-perception on the right side of the political divide that they understand and can explain why socialism leads to poverty. The reality is that virtually no one can do this. I had made it part of many conversations over the years, especially after the Venezuelan economy had collapsed, to ask what exactly the problem with socialism is, but it is a much more difficult question than most people seem to understand. There is no doubt that every attempt to introduce socialism anywhere has led to economic ruin. It is as plain as day that socialism rapidly leads to a major reduction in living standards. Absolutely inevitable, but why? There is a relatively small but important literature on this question, but it is complex and is mostly for specialists who have a deeper understanding of the nature and operation of a market economy. You won’t get it unless you have studied economics already, or are prepared to put in the time. You are more than welcome to enter into the intricacies of the Socialist Calculation Debate which explains why without a free market an economy cannot determine either what to produce, and more importantly so far as the certain failure of a socialist economy is concerned, how to produce. Which is why every such economy must fall into an abyss from which they cannot even begin to emerge until their socialist institutions are removed.

I have therefore written an article, that I hope will be accessible to anyone, on why all socialist economies are doomed. I have based it on an earlier classic article published in 1958, I, Pencil which is why I have titled my own version, I, Mechanical Pencil. This is how I, Mechanical Pencil begins, which will explain what I wrote, and the connection with its earlier predecessor.

Many years ago, one of my early ancestors wrote his own life story in a wonderful autobiographical tale titled I, Pencil. He told the story of how he came to be, how he had been the result of thousands of many independent decisions made all over the world by many tens of thousands of individuals. Their collective actions explained how he came to be the pencil he was.

His aim was to explain why socialism doesn’t work. Whatever name you associate the idea of ‘socialism’ – whether it is ‘democratic’, ‘scientific’, ‘utopian’ or something else – socialism inevitably brings poverty and privation to the vast majority who are robbed of their political freedom as well. His aim had been to explain how our free market economic system brings us both freedom and prosperity; how a market economy is indispensable if we are to live our lives as we wish and in our own way, while also becoming more prosperous with each passing year.

Yet I fear his message has been lost in the modern world; in part because we live in different times with different kinds of problems, but also because many fail to separate out the political side of socialism from the economic. Socialist economies are always run from the centre and inevitably become a dictatorship with democratic constraints on the government crushed by those who take control. That is the certainty of it. Political freedom disappears when a socialist government takes over. The loss of freedom is straightforward and unmistakeable. There are no exceptions.

But hidden away beneath the political dimension are the reasons behind the economic catastrophe that follows the introduction of a socialist regime. These outcomes are visible at every turn. There is no disguising the massive reductions in income and personal wealth that are inflicted upon virtually everyone in a socialist economy, other than, of course, those who run the country. Everyone sees it, but virtually no one understands why so many things go so wrong everywhere within the economy and almost all at once.

I have therefore set out to explain why this happens, because we take the prosperity we have so much for granted. We now live in far and away the richest communities that have ever existed. Even the poor are only relatively poor, and live better than all but the royalty of earlier ages – in fact, probably even better than royalty then did as well. I won’t say things are perfect or could not be improved. But I will say that any solution to our problems that tries to make things better by introducing a socialist program of some kind is not only doomed to failure but is absolutely certain to make conditions far worse. Of this, there should be no doubt whatsoever.

I commend the article to you and feel free to pass it along as far and wide as you like.

PDT on anti-semitism

In his State of the Union, the President focused on anti-semitism which is again a force for evil in the world today when one would have hoped it had disappeared into the past. This has been highlighted by Scott Johnson at Powerline in a post on The State of the Union is Good. These are the relevant parts of his post.

I want to highlight one especially important theme. President Trump has taken a lot of unjustified grief for alleged anti-Semitism. What a farce.

Last night the president recognized individual Holocaust survivors among his special guests, but he went beyond gestures. He expressed support of the Jewish people and opposition to anti-Semitism (see, e.g., the case of Iran). He mentioned his support of Israel as well. The Jewish theme made for a powerful motif. Here he knit together Trump foreign policy with recognition of a law enforcement hero:

My Administration has acted decisively to confront the world’s leading state sponsor of terror: the radical regime in Iran.

To ensure this corrupt dictatorship never acquires nuclear weapons, I withdrew the United States from the disastrous Iran nuclear deal. And last fall, we put in place the toughest sanctions ever imposed on a country.

We will not avert our eyes from a regime that chants death to America and threatens genocide against the Jewish people. We must never ignore the vile poison of anti-Semitism, or those who spread its venomous creed. With one voice, we must confront this hatred anywhere and everywhere it occurs.

Just months ago, 11 Jewish-Americans were viciously murdered in an anti-semitic attack on the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. SWAT Officer Timothy Matson raced into the gunfire and was shot seven times chasing down the killer. Timothy has just had his 12th surgery — but he made the trip to be here with us tonight. Officer Matson: we are forever grateful for your courage in the face of evil.

He wasn’t done:

Tonight, we are also joined by Pittsburgh survivor Judah Samet. He arrived at the synagogue as the massacre began. But not only did Judah narrowly escape death last fall — more than seven decades ago, he narrowly survived the Nazi concentration camps. Today is Judah’s 81st birthday. Judah says he can still remember the exact moment, nearly 75 years ago, after 10 months in a concentration camp, when he and his family were put on a train, and told they were going to another camp. Suddenly the train screeched to a halt. A soldier appeared. Judah’s family braced for the worst. Then, his father cried out with joy: “It’s the Americans.”

A second Holocaust survivor who is here tonight, Joshua Kaufman, was a prisoner at Dachau Concentration Camp. He remembers watching through a hole in the wall of a cattle car as American soldiers rolled in with tanks. “To me,” Joshua recalls, “the American soldiers were proof that God exists, and they came down from the sky.”

I began this evening by honoring three soldiers who fought on D-Day in the Second World War. One of them was Herman Zeitchik. But there is more to Herman’s story. A year after he stormed the beaches of Normandy, Herman was one of those American soldiers who helped liberate Dachau. He was one of the Americans who helped rescue Joshua from that hell on earth. Almost 75 years later, Herman and Joshua are both together in the gallery tonight — seated side-by-side, here in the home of American freedom. Herman and Joshua: your presence this evening honors and uplifts our entire Nation.

All in all, an excellent speech with many highlights.

Quotable quote: “Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country. America was founded on liberty and independence –- not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free. Tonight, we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist country.”

There has never been a moment in all the years since he entered public life, which for me is now four years ago, that I have ever doubted the sincerity of a word he has said. He is the most remarkable man I have ever seen hold high office and we are blessed to have him where he is.