John Stuart Mill and the logic of economics

I have just been confronted by two articles I have refereed, both on the economics of John Stuart Mill, that I rejected because they have no idea what Mill is trying to explain or the logic of what he is getting at. Both, however, are likely to be published no matter what I might think. Here was Mill, the man with the nineteenth century’s highest IQ, the author of the book on logic that was used for two generations across the English speaking world, a book still eminenty worth reading to this day, yet both of these papers criticise Mill for contradicting himself and faulty logic.

Mill’s Principles of Political Economy is far and away the best book on economic theory ever written. My own book on Free Market Economics (now in its second edition) is Mill brought up to date with a few modern gadgets. Also brought into the text and heavily criticised are the various additions to economic theory that have made economics far worse as a tool of analysis and a basis for policy, most notably MC=MR and Keynes.

All I can say is how exasperating it is to read these critics of Mill who cannot even begin to understand the problems with their interpretations. But what is the peculiar bit is that in being possibly the only economist in the world who thinks of Mill as the best economist who has ever lived, there is not a soul alive who I can turn to for support. I am not the smartest person on the world today, but I do come closer to understanding Mill than anyone else writing on economics. The massacre of our economies by the modern doctors of economic theory is as obvious to me as it is invisible to them. So on it will go but the certainty is that if we keep up in the way we have, we will never ever generate a recovery worth having and living standards will continue to fall.

Student demos for a conservative cause

Les Mis is a truly misbegotten piece of literature, which has irritated me in the same way each of the times I have seen it. My sympathies are instantly on the side of Inspector Jobert and his attempts to put down the demonstrators in the streets. These radical nitwits have poisoned the wells of western civilisatin and are about to snuff out our entire way of life on behalf of equality, climate change and multiculturalism, three of the most inane causes ever invented.

But what is going on in Hong Kong is different. Same students, same demos, but this time on behalf of conservative and small-l liberal causes. There the students are fighting a desperate, and almost certainly losing battle on behalf of their desire to be governed by people of their own choosing according to their own values based on how things have been done in the past. Alas, their values are personal freedom politically and capitalism economically. They are therefore, as they say, on the wrong side of history, something that all of those fools on the left will immediately understand and therefore viscerally oppose everything these students are trying to preserve.

Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?

The American economy is dead, dead, dead. That’s the reality. But then there is the politics. This is what the president says: Obama Claims His Economy Is A Success. And you know what? It’s hard to fault the politics even for a second. He is ruining the US and it is clear to anyone with the slightest awareness, even those media jerks who will never abandon their man. They all know, but they won’t say. So Obama just gives them copy and a story to run. The rest of us can say he is a liar but he has had six years’ experience walking all over every criticism which he knows he will never be called out on. Incredible to see, but the world always has been a mysterious place. This is the new politics:

President Barack Obama claimed Thursday that “the facts” demonstrate that his economic policies are safely guiding the nation’s towards middle-class prosperity.

“Those are the facts,” he said. “It’s not conjecture, it’s not opinion… I laid out facts,” he told his audience of upper-income progressives at Northwestern University in Illinois Oct. 2.

Obama’s pitch to the progressives combined a mix of flattery, selective data and visceral campaign pitches, including promises of cheap loans for his student audience, more power for would-be regulators and greater wages for women.

“If we make sure a woman is paid equal to her efforts, it won’t just give women a boost; it’ll give their families and the entire economy a boost… Let’s catch up to 2014, pass a fair pay law, and make our economy stronger,” he told his audience, which included many university-trained women, who comprise one of the most pro-Democratic voting blocs.

He also suggested that wise government leadership created many private-sector gains, such as the boom in oil-drilling and natural-gas fracking.

Progressive economic “policies are right for America, they are supported by the facts,” he said.

Why isn’t Keynesian theory dead, dead, dead?

obama gdp recovery v 1981

This comes via Powerline but is taken from a document put out by the Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee: The Obama Economy: a Chartbook. That 92% of American economists surveyed stated that the stimulus had lowered the unemployment rate below the level it would otherwise have been shows that 92% of American economists haven’t a clue which way is up. You really ought to look at the charts. There really is nothing left to say. Not that the American economy was doing all that well before Obama got his hands on it, but since then the decline has been unbelievable.

Yet the theory that has created this mess is still taught as the mainstream view in economics courses across the world. It’s all Keynesian aggregate demand all the time. But if you are curious about what went wrong, might I recommend you have a read of this.

It will also help to explain this, the incredible fall in median incomes.

obama economy median family income

What you are looking at here is evidence that the infrastructure that supports the American economy is crumbling. It’s not just GDP, which is a temporary measure that goes up and down, but the actual stock of capital that is falling to bits.

A study in self-delusion

This is a very long article that ultimately wore me out but even though written by someone on the left side of politics, gets to the heart of the matter. It is titled, I can tolerate anything except the outgroup and is about how we can let pass our true enemies who are really far away and reserve our greatest enmities for those who are nearby. The author, Scott Alexander, practices a very sophisticated form of self-delusion in his attack on conservative beliefs, but it is more interesting than usual. And it is nice that he at least sees some of what is wrong although will not finally grasp the point he continuously alludes to. Here is a bit of a summary:

Freud spoke of the narcissism of small differences, saying that “it is precisely communities with adjoining territories, and related to each other in other ways as well, who are engaged in constant feuds and ridiculing each other”. Nazis and German Jews. Northern Irish Protestants and Northern Irish Catholics. Hutus and Tutsis. South African whites and South African blacks. Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. Anyone in the former Yugoslavia and anyone else in the former Yugoslavia.

So what makes an outgroup? Proximity plus small differences. If you want to know who someone in former Yugoslavia hates, don’t look at the Indonesians or the Zulus or the Tibetans or anyone else distant and exotic. Find the Yugoslavian ethnicity that lives closely intermingled with them and is most conspicuously similar to them, and chances are you’ll find the one who they have eight hundred years of seething hatred toward.

But he says a good deal more. I thought this was true, although it is not at all true about me. What has alienated me from my high regard for America in the past is how it has embraced the values of the Democrats almost across the board. But I can still see what the author means:

My hunch – both the Red Tribe [Republicans] and the Blue Tribe [Democrats], for whatever reason, identify “America” with the Red Tribe. Ask people for typically “American” things, and you end up with a very Red list of characteristics – guns, religion, barbecues, American football, NASCAR, cowboys, SUVs, unrestrained capitalism.

That means the Red Tribe feels intensely patriotic about “their” country, and the Blue Tribe feels like they’re living in fortified enclaves deep in hostile territory.

Here is the conclusion:

We started by asking: millions of people are conspicuously praising every outgroup they can think of, while conspicuously condemning their own in-group. This seems contrary to what we know about social psychology. What’s up?

We noted that outgroups are rarely literally “the group most different from you”, and in fact far more likely to be groups very similar to you sharing almost all your characteristics and living in the same area.

We then noted that although liberals and conservatives live in the same area, they might as well be two totally different countries or universe as far as level of interaction were concerned.

Contra the usual idea of them being marked only by voting behavior, we described them as very different tribes with totally different cultures. You can speak of “American culture” only in the same way you can speak of “Asian culture” – that is, with a lot of interior boundaries being pushed under the rug.

The outgroup of the Red Tribe is occasionally blacks and gays and Muslims, more often the Blue Tribe.

The Blue Tribe has performed some kind of very impressive act of alchemy, and transmuted all of its outgroup hatred to the Red Tribe.

This is not surprising. Ethnic differences have proven quite tractable in the face of shared strategic aims. Even the Nazis, not known for their ethnic tolerance, were able to get all buddy-buddy with the Japanese when they had a common cause.

Research suggests Blue Tribe / Red Tribe prejudice to be much stronger than better-known types of prejudice like racism. Once the Blue Tribe was able to enlist the blacks and gays and Muslims in their ranks, they became allies of convenience who deserve to be rehabilitated with mildly condescending paeans to their virtue.

It’s a spooky article since where it leads is to the disintegration of all community feeling for those of a different political perspective. But what it most importantly means is that groups from alien cultures and far different practices and beliefs [FGM, for example] become the allies of convenience for the left, meaning there is no assimilation required and the fracturing of American society continues apace.

At the end, the conclusion is the same old same old that what is needed is more tolerance only that the tolerance should be directed at the outgroups of the left. What really needs to happen is that there is less tolerance for the ruining of American society by assuming everything everyone does is just fine and none of anyone else’s business but their own.

I am personally in virtually all of the characteristics part of the blue team but my sentiments are almost entirely red team. There is nothing I or anyone else on the conservative side of things can do to stop the ruin, but this kind of smarmy smugness about Democrat virtue and tolerance does make me smile at the self-delusions these people have.

The great discontinuity in Keynes’s economic thought

This is an extract from a note I have written to an economist in the United States whose work I have only just come upon. I am beginning to become aware of the various attempts by a number of economic schools to abandon modern neo-classical theory which, in my view anyway, mostly means trying to rediscover what the classical economists already knew. Perhaps there is more to it but so far I cannot see what. The interest in this letter, however, is in the nature of the Keynesian Revolution. I have no in-depth knowledge of Keynes’s Treatise on Money although am reasonably familiar with it. But it was published in 1930 while my interest begins in 1932 with Keynes’s discovery of demand deficiency as the explanation of recession and involuntary unemployment.

The paper I am commenting on treats Keynes’s ideas as if there had not been the great disruption at the end of 1932 when Keynes came upon Malthus’s 1820 letters to Ricardo. It was these that instantly converted him into a Keynesian theorist which he had not previously been, even though he had always sought to increase public spending to reduce unemployment during recessions. That virtually all of his contemporaries understood how thin Keynes’s arguments are is now just of historical interest and of interest to hardly anyone at all. Only by going back to those moments of transition, and by understanding what economic theory was like before 1936, is there any hope for again turning economic theory into something useful for analysing economic events. This then is what I wrote:

I would have written back straight away but Tuesdays is my heavy duty teaching day and I also didn’t want to clutter your inbox until I had read your brilliant article on Keynes. You cannot imagine how similarly we see the world and what a treat it is for me to read something like what you wrote. I will, of course, include this paper in my Anti-Keynesian Reader, but I must also beg your indulgence if I explain to you the 1932-1933 shift in Keynes’s thinking which is my speciality. I have also ordered your macroeconomics text which I am looking forward to since it came after your paper and must therefore incorporate the same ideas.

You have also made me even more aware than I was before that I have not been keeping up with the literature as well as I should. I found the scholarship of your article exhilarating and finished it at one go. I just sat down and read it and was only sorry that after thirty pages it turned out to be so short. My own excuse for not being aware of the most recent literature is that I spent the years from 1980-2004 as the Economist for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. I therefore think that my economic interests were driven by an eclectic interest in arguments that could be used to explain economic issues from the perspective on an entrepreneur. It is why the classical economists so appealed to me since that was their aim. From the marginal revolution on, I find almost nothing of much value in framing issues, specially since post the marginal revolution economics went micro and into equilibrium analysis, both of which are utterly contrary to what I could see right before my eyes being the need to make sense of an economy in which every business decision is fraught with the uncertainty of spending tonnes of money before the outcome of each of those decisions could be known. And while I may have been feeding on the classics, nothing I ever wrote looked archaic to those to whom our submissions went. Classical economics makes perfect sense and is much more logical and insightful than the kinds of economic theory we find today.

But what started me on the trajectory I travelled was a minor issue in the National Wage Case of 1980. I was brought on to write the economic submission to our industrial relations court on behalf of employers. It was explained to me that every argument in a court of law must be controverted so I had to go through the union submission, identify each argument they had made and then explain why it was wrong. Believe me, this was the easiest task I have ever been given, but one of them was easiest of all. This was the argument that wages had to be raised as a means to stimulate demand. So I just pointed out that you could not stimulate an economy by making employers pay an extra $100 a week so that employees could then spend that extra $100 in their shops. And then, in 1982, I was reading John Stuart Mill’s Principles, for no other reason than because I was interested in what he might have to say, and came across his Four Propositions on Capital which literally, on the spot, ended my days as a Keynesian. (And now, 32 years later, I am about to finally have an article published on these four propositions.) From there, I continued reading more of Mill and found a passage in which he pointed out how ridiculous it was that people thought an economy could be driven forward by demand. And the example he gave of how ridiculous this argument is was of someone who might steal from the till of the business they are working in, go out the back door and come back in the front and spend the money, and that the more this was done, the faster the business would grow. This was so exactly my own argument that it completely dumbfounded me. And yet, it was probably not until another couple of years later that I worked out that the notions that Mill was discussing are the actual meaning of “Say’s Law”. It has been coming to terms with Say’s Law and what it meant and all of its implications that has been the pole star for all of my economic writing ever since. And so, my Free Market Economics, which is me trying to do in my own fashion right now what Mill had done in 1848.

I have tried to explain over and again that Say’s Law is the Rosetta Stone for understanding The General Theory, and is also the foundational principle for understanding how an economy works. For the second, you can read my text when it gets to you. But the first is what you have written your article about which has been in so many ways a revelation to me. My speciality is the Keynesian Revolution and know less than perhaps I ought to about The Treatise and Keynes’s original monetary theories. You have perfectly situated Keynes’s arguments for me and his original conception which fits into everything I already know and understand. It is a tour de force, and I have tried to read everything I can on the critics of Keynes. But this is what I can add to what you have written. I have, of course, published things on this but to say that it has been ignored is something of an understatement. It so badly fits the narrative others wish to promote, and truly undermines Keynes as an original thinker and an honest purveyor of ideas, that it just cannot be allowed into the canon. Perhaps, however, you will see my point.

Keynes was doing exactly what you write all the way up to the end of 1932. He was going to write a book about the Monetary Theory of Production, almost certainly along the lines you set out. Unfortunately, it was just then that he came across Malthus’s long-lost letters to Ricardo which had just been discovered by his best friend, Piero Sraffa. In updating his “Essay on Malthus” for inclusion in his Essays in Biography, he read through those letters and discovered demand deficiency, the issue of the general glut debate of the 1820s. He therefore stopped writing about the monetary theory of production and began to write about Say’s Law. And rather than requiring a form of disequilibrium analysis, he is forced by what he wishes to argue, to adopt the most rigid form of equilibrium analysis. This may seem a conundrum to others who work forward from Keynes’s previous writings, but working backwards from The General Theory as I do, it seems perfectly clear to me what he had done.

Netanyahu’s speech to the UN

Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the UN on 29 September said what needs to be said. Here’s the central point of what he said in discussing Iran:

It’s one thing to confront militant Islamists on pick-up trucks, armed with Kalashnikov rifles. It’s another thing to confront militant Islamists armed with weapons of mass destruction.

But it’s coming, and it will not just be Israel in the firing line.

Why is this story not on the front page of every paper?

But at least it’s in The New York Post, Teen girls recall horrors of ISIS captivity:

Teenage girls who escaped the brutal clutches of ISIS terrorists have recounted a harrowing nightmare of beatings, torture, rape and degradation that included being forced to watch videos of men being beheaded.

The girls, members of the persecuted Yazidi minority from northern Iraq, say they were captured and sold or given as gifts.

“We would try to make ourselves look ugly,” an escaped girl, 15, told the Global Post news service. “Some women would cry or scream or fight, but it made no difference. They were always taken anyway,”

She said they were debased so badly that death, even by suicide, was more appealing than living under ISIS’s barbaric control.

“One girl hanged herself,” the teen said. “Another tried, but the ISIS guards stopped her and beat her very badly. No one else tried after that.”

One of the young victims said she became frail and sick because her guards gave them so little to eat.

Their captors also made them watch videos of beheadings of Yazidi men.

“In some [videos] they put the heads into cooking pots,” the anguished victim recalled. “Sometimes they would stand on them. There were so many heads. And they would ask us, ‘Do you know this one?’ and laugh.”

Another teen, a 19-year-old mother said her ordeal began when she tried to flee from her village in the Sinjar region of Iraq with her husband and infant child. ISIS vehicles caught up with them and others who were running, and forced the men to lie face-down on the ground.

The rebels executed boys as young as 14, she said. She watched as her husband was shot to death.

Clinging to her only child, the mother and other women were bundled on the backs of pickup trucks and taken to a holding facility. There, they were pressured to convert to Islam and given copies of the Koran.

“There was a big hall with three floors and each floor had five or six rooms,” the 15-year-old said. “They told us if we didn’t convert to Islam they would kill all the men in our families, so we said to ourselves, ‘It’s just words. In our hearts we are still Yazidi.’ So I did it to save my brother.”

No one doubts that these stories are true. It’s just that no one cares.

Someone says that Obama lied

Of course he lied. What else is new. If they report it in The New York Times, then I would like to know about it. This, however, is from The Daily Caller:

President Barack Obama has taken a lot of flack since his Sunday night “60 Minutes” interview, in which he blamed the intelligence community for his failure to tackle the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. And that is right and proper. Because not only was his excuse of blaming us a lie, but when questioned on his lie, White House press secretary Josh Earnest doubled down with a whole new lie — both of which are easily, publicly proven false.

On Sunday, Obama said the intelligence community had underestimated the rise of ISIS, saying in an interview with CBS, “Our head of the intelligence community, Jim Clapper, has acknowledged that, I think, they underestimated what had been taking place in Syria.”

But we know that isn’t true, as nearly a dozen administration officials have testified to the threat posed by ISIS publicly over the last year.

The fact that the president chose to use the word “they” instead of “we” immediately drew condemnation from friend and foe alike, who saw it as the president’s attempt to pass the buck.

The article is by “a ranking Department of Defense official” who prefers to stay anonymous. But it’s not as if no one knows. Everyone knows, even those who deny it to your face, while the rest prefer Obama lies to conservative truth. So we go on until we are over the falls.

ACCI and deficit spending

I did manage to get through Q&A last night but what caught me right from the start was where Wayne Swan, former Treasurer, said to Kate Carnell, the newly installed CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce, that ACCI had NEVER sought balanced budgets. Never is a long time and having been the ACCI Chief Economist up until a decade ago, I can say with perfect assurance that at least in my time, ACCI, previously known as the CAI, had never sought anything other than balanced budgets.

Way back, as far back as the days of Bob Hawke as Prime Minister, I wrote an article for our newsletter titled, “An Australian Economic Miracle?” Not many things on the net from the late 1980s, but I did find this:

“An Australian economic miracle, a truly Lazarus-like recovery is now a clear possibility,” says the Confederation of Australian Industry (CAI) in a newsletter this month.

Following the 1987 share market collapse, everyone across the world got religion and more especially Paul Keating here in Australia who balanced the budget in 1988. This was then – and always was while I was there – CAI/ACCI policy. Balancing the budget by lowering expenditure was a near-on certain cure-all for me and so it proved. What then wrecked it all was the almost immediate concern that the economy was overheating that then required the administration of a ridiculously high interest rate regime which brought on the “recession we had to have”. I had to spend the next five years shouting at the government for ruining it all with its monetary policies but it was by then too late.

But in that brave moment in 1988, Australia was set for the most remarkable recovery you ever saw. The flack I took for saying what I said, along with the organisation, was prodigious. But the then Labor Government, having balanced the budget, was indeed overseeing an economic resurrection that at the time no one had noticed was in place. So I wrote the article, signed off by my CEO, and once the recovery became common knowledge, had to endure the idiocies involved in cooling down what had only just picked up.

Balanced budgets work, and deficits do only harm. The evidence that the policies of the classical economists were overwhelmingly better than the policies of every mainstream text of the time, and of today as well, was demonstrated to me, just as it would be demonstrated again when Peter Costello balanced the budgets in the period after 1996. I am therefore pleased to see that Kate Carnell has reiterated the long-term policy of the Chamber.

And if you would like to have a better understanding of the underlying theory, you could not do any better than have a look at my Free Market Economics. Strange to relate, it is to my knowledge the only book of its kind.