Interest rates and economic growth

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Low interest rates kill off economic growth. Australia has maintained high rates over most of the period since the GFC, and even with the recent cuts our rates remain higher than the international standard. And how are we going?

The Australian economy is expanding at a much stronger clip than anticipated, with one analyst saying the latest GDP figures put doomsayers firmly in the corner as expectations of another rate cut were trimmed.

Meanwhile, back in the US of A, the land of near-zero rates: Shock Report on Jobs Signals Obama Economy Is on Brink of Recession.

If you step back and look at the whole business sector, a case can be made that the United States has been in a mild business recession for as much as a year, if not longer.

Take business fixed investment in equipment, software, plants, buildings, and so forth. This has been slowing for six straight quarters. It even went negative in the first quarter on a year-on-year basis. . . .

Core capital goods, including orders, shipments, and backlogs, have turned negative over the past three months and across the past year. This is a proxy for business investment, and it’s not a good omen.

Finally, the closely watched ISM reports for manufacturing and services are barely above 50. In other words, they point to the front end of a recession. On the manufacturing side, key indicators like production and employment are below year-ago levels. New orders are flat. On the services side, the overall index is below year-ago levels, as is employment and new orders.

The entire article is incoherent to an exceptional extent. In fact, economic policy is incoherent to an exceptional extent. But if you are looking at incoherence, this part of the Australian story is hard to beat:

JP Morgan chief economist Sally Auld questioned the [Australian] growth indicators and expects the RBA to cut rates to a new record low in August.

She said domestic final demand, which is the total amount of spending in the economy, only rose by 0.1 per cent in the quarter and 0.9 over the year.

Ms Auld said all price indicators in the quarterly release were very weak, vindicating the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut rates to 1.75 per cent last month.

“The headline GDP numbers are going to continue to be flattered by very strong net exports. Which will mean that GDP looks good, but it’s not the sort of growth that actually generates any inflation for you,” she said.

She wants inflation! Inflation is apparently good for growth. These people will ruin us yet. With Glenn Stevens gone, there is no certainty that we any longer have a steady hand on the monetary tiller. A rate cutter Glenn was not, but I suspect that even though they all watched him operate, and can see his success before their eyes, they are now going to bring rates down. Mistake, mistake, mistake if they do. If you would like to understand what’s wrong with artificially lowering rates, you would have to go back to economic texts written a hundred years ago or more, unless you would like to read my own, which is about to go into its third edition next year.

It is not enough to just say “what a jerk” and then move on

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Sure it’s funny in a pathetic kind of way. Sure the president of the United States has been elected because he can read a teleprompter while having black skin. Sure we know he pretended to have written two books when we know the first one was written by the communist Bill Ayres and the second was just a gaggle of campaign rhetoric written by no one in particular. The only people who will find the video truly funny are our enemies, the enemies of the United States, the enlightenment and Western civilisation. They laugh at us because so many across the US are simpletons and fools, and their president is all the proof they need.

The real issue is not how funny the video is but what can be done about what it reveals? It is essential to recognise that it is the media, our universities and that proportion of our own societies who are members of the far left that need to be countered with some kind of strategy. Donald Trump has begun what must not become merely his own theme, with no one else entering these wars on his side. Our enemies must be called out. Those who support Obama must be themselves made to share in the shame in having been taken in by such a transparent charlatan. The institutions that have given a pass to the infantile fantasies of the left must be ridiculed and deprived of funds. There is a great deal that needs to be done, but who will do it?

Nazis thought they were nice people too

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Screen-Shot-2016-06-02-at-11.24.07-PM

Via Instapundit where we find this in the comments:

F–k Godwin’s Law-
I hate nazis.
That is what they are. Wondering how many of them are paid by a guy who worked for the nazis.

BTW do you know who he means by the “guy who worked for the nazis”? A genuine possibility. More of the story from The Guardian: Protesters attack Trump supporters, as Trump calls for Clinton to ‘go to jail’

Inside the rally, the presumptive Republican nominee for president responded to a fiery speech earlier in the day by his main rival, Hillary Clinton, in which she lambasted him as “ temperamentally unfit” to be president and castigated his “thin skin”.

Trump struck out at Clinton, attacking her on her email controversy, saying: “I will say this: Hillary Clinton has to go to jail.”

It really is the White House or the Big House.

“I don’t think voters know quite how vindictive Turnbull is”

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Any idea what Andrew Bolt means?

I don’t think voters know quite how vindictive Turnbull is, and what depths his media team have stooped to in trying to intimidate journalists.

When I am permitted to reveal some confidences I will. I am not quite saying Turnbull is a Rudd, but I am saying that the advertising does not resemble the goods and there will be buyers’ remorse. Already many Liberal MPs are worried. The superannuation strife is just a hint of what’s to come.

I know he is shallow, mean-spirited, narcissistic and incompetent. He is a left-wing troll heading a party of what ought to be liberal conservatives. If there’s more, it is pointless to wait till the 3rd of July to let us know.

Meanwhile, we have Malcolm’s father-in-law venting steam on Tony Abbott in his new book just published. Either the author is incoherent or the writer of the article, since I really could not work out from this what he was saying. Ravings of an old man, I suppose. You work this out and get back to me:

The book also republishes a blistering letter Mr Hughes sent to his brother, the late Robert ­Hughes, world-renowned as an art critic and accomplished historian, when Mr Abbott became Liberal leader.

”This is a potentially catas­tro­ph­ic decision,” he wrote. “To elect Abbott in his place is the equivalent of putting the bull in charge of the china shop or the principal ­lunatic in charge of the asylum. Abbott’s behaviour in relation to the risks of global warming may be compared to the oscillations of the weather vane.”

Well, the catastrophe turned out to be that Abbott had a fantastic win at the 2013 election which allowed Malcolm to stage a coup to become the Prime Minister he could never have become on his own. If he meant anything else, I could not work it out.

Delusional thinking is kind of like deceiving yourself

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When I use the word delusional, there is nothing necessarily psychotechnical about it. So I went to the most authoritative source I could find, and this is what it says on Google:

Delusional comes from a Latin word meaning “deceiving.” So delusional thinking is kind of like deceiving yourself by believing outrageous things. Delusional thoughts are often a sign of mental illness, but the word can also be used more loosely to describe behavior that is just not realistic.

So perhaps this is only delusional in a loose sort of way:

President Barack Obama on Wednesday delivered a fervent appeal for a Democratic successor, wading deeper into the race to replace him even as his party has yet to produce a presumptive nominee.

Without mentioning any presidential candidates by name — Democrat or Republican — Obama lambasted what he said were economic myths peddled by the GOP, insisting any clear-eyed assessment shows the country better off now then when he took office.

The GFC began and ended during the presidency of George W. Bush. Again from Google:

The financial crisis of 2007–08, also known as the global financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to have been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Obama became President in January 2009. All the hard work had been done. He had the easier job of building the American economy back up. If he thinks things are better now than on the day he took over, I know which meaning of delusional I would choose.

And when you have decided about economic policy, let us move onto how well he thinks he’s done on medical care and peace in the Middle East. You might also find this interesting which is a CNN report on the speech in which the following video is taken. Guess which bit is never mentioned.

I might just further add that this has been up all day at Drudge, very unusual, and still has had only 757,071 hits. The reach of conservative-leaning media is small. Obama is such an embarrassment but they might still elect Hillary. And if the media has its way, they will.

“It’s called leadership”

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Does he believe it himself? Does anyone he talks to believe it? Yet you may be sure this has been focus-grouped to death and came out with a strong positive result so someone must at least say their vote will depend on it: No net cost for renewable plan: Labor.

Bill Shorten insists a plan to force commonwealth agencies to run on 50 per cent renewable energy will have no net cost.

But the opposition leader won’t say if the policy has been costed, relying on a government-commissioned report that found renewable energy puts downward pressure on power prices.

He’s also banking on technology getting cheaper before 2030.

“There’ll be no net cost,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Sydney on Thursday.

“I know if you want an economic plan you’ve got to have a plan for climate change.”

Mr Shorten repeatedly side-stepped questions on whether Labor had costed the plan to sign 10 to 15 year power purchase agreements with energy companies to buy renewables.

“It’s called leadership,” he said [to all the other lemmings].

Battle of Jutland

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Since we are memorialising World War I, I thought I would mention that May 31 was the hundredth anniversary of the Battle of Jutland. What the absence of any mention anywhere that I saw meant to me was that everything we worry about now will be as close to forgotten as it is possible to be in a century’s time. None of it will be irrelevant, just forgotten.

How delusional is he? This delusional

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This is no more than a teleprompter malfunction, which as usual exposes Obama as the inarticulate nonentity he actually is. His incoherence is protected by the media in the same way that FDR was never shown in a wheelchair by the press in his time. But that Obama should say one word about how he has begun some kind of social healing process which Donald Trump is about to tear apart is an example of such delusion that it does truly make you worry about the health of the American democracy.

And if you have any thoughts that the US remains a basically sound society without corruption now to its very roots, there is this to add to everything else you know. This story is bizarre because it is bizarre, but also because you won’t find this written in any of the mainstream media: Stunning Hidden Agendas Exposed – Trump University Lawsuit Brought By Firm Who Paid $675,000 To Bill and Hillary Clinton…. And if you find that bizarre, then what about this about the judge:

Donald Trump has accused Judge Gonzalo Curiel as having a bias, a specific agenda bias, to the benefit of the plaintiffs in the case; and it appears he is correct.

Judge Curiel, an activist for illegal immigration, even went as far as to work on behalf of San Diego La Raza activists to select illegal aliens for scholarships.

Go to the link and see it for yourself.

UPDATE: Never to be found in the mainstream press, but now at least posted at Drudge: Judge Presiding Over Trump University Case Is Member Of La Raza Lawyers Group.

United States District Court Judge Gonzalo Curiel, the man presiding over the class-action lawsuit against Trump University, is a member of the La Raza Lawyers of San Diego and oversaw the gift of a law school scholarship to an illegal alien.

In his 2011 judicial questionnaire to become a federal judge, Curiel revealed his history with La Raza. GotNews.com originally reported this Tuesday, and The Daily Caller has independently verified.

Curiel lists “La Raza Lawyers of San Diego” as a legal association he has been a part of in the questionnaire. Curiel’s office at the United States District Court for the Southern District of California confirmed to TheDC the judge’s membership in the group.

Curiel reveals more ties to the group in his questionnaire. He has spoken at two receptions held by La Raza Lawyers of San Diego, the most recent being in 2011. Last year, the group also held a reception for Curiel. The description of the event says, “This year we are proud to be honoring Judge Gonzalo Curiel at our reception and recognizing him for his leadership and support to the community and to our Association!”

That won’t, of course, stop Hillary, the Democrats and the media from pushing the case as an example of something. And this fact doesn’t, of course, mean that there isn’t something questionable here, although it raises many, many doubts that there is. And there would not have been anyone on the Republican side with some skeleton, either real or manufactured, that could not have been produced. It remains the case with Donald Trump, however, that at least he will fight it out on the ethical end and will not be cowed into retreat.

More of what else you don’t know

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This story is bizarre because it is bizarre, but also because you cannot find this written in any of the mainstream media: Stunning Hidden Agendas Exposed – Trump University Lawsuit Brought By Firm Who Paid $675,000 To Bill and Hillary Clinton…. And if you find that bizarre, then what about this about the judge:

Donald Trump has accused Judge Gonzalo Curiel as having a bias, a specific agenda bias, to the benefit of the plaintiffs in the case; and it appears he is correct.

Judge Curiel, an activist for illegal immigration, even went as far as to work on behalf of San Diego La Raza activists to select illegal aliens for scholarships.

Go to the link and see it for yourself.