Donald Trump and the Middle East

Trump may end up being even better than I ever imagined he might be. This is from Caroline Glick and titled, The Trump way of winning the war. “Winning the war” here means bringing a lasting peace to the Middle East.

The PLO is disoriented, panicked and hysterical. Speaking to Newsweek this week, Saeb Erekat, PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas’s chief conduit to Israel and the Americans, complained that since President Donald Trump was sworn into office, no administration official had spoken to them.

“I don’t know any of them [Trump’s advisers]. We have sent them letters, written messages. They don’t even bother to respond to us.”

The Trump administration’s shunning of the PLO is a marked departure from the policies of its predecessor. For former president Barack Obama, together with Iran, the Palestinians were viewed as the key players in the Middle East. Abbas was the first foreign leader Obama called after taking office.

Erekat’s statement reveals something that is generally obscured. Despite its deep support in Europe, the UN and the international Left, without US support, the PLO is irrelevant.

Irrelevancy may yet lead to accommodation. Trump is on the right side in the great ideological war of our time, and he may even have the strategy to win it. I have always believed that The Great Man theory of history was where the balance of the truth lay, and we are seeing it again. Trump is indispensable.

“How is it playing out in Australia?”

That one’s from Canada, and this is from an old mate in the US: “What does the Australian press have to say about this?” These were their entire messages.

What “it” and “this” are no one needed to tell me. But truly how stupid do you have to be to have made an arrangement with Obama after the election to send boat people from Nauru and Manus to the US? If Malcolm believed he was going to get points for having stood up to the US against Trump, as clueless as I have always thought him, he has plumbed levels of stupidity and political incompetence until now unimaginable. From The Australian:

Australia’s alliance with the US has hit its lowest point in decades, in a clash over a divisive refugee deal that led Donald Trump to ­berate Malcolm Turnbull in priv­ate before staging a public retreat from the agreement.

This morning the President has said he loves Australia and will “respect” the deal, but that nations are taking advantage of the US. White House spokesman Sean Spicer said his boss was “unbelievably disappointed” about the “horrible deal” and that refugees will only be allowed in the US if they pass extreme vetting. But Mr Trump’s top officials have tried to smooth over the rift, holding a meeting with ambassador Joe Hockey.

For Malcolm apparently to have tried to push Trump, by telling him that as a fellow businessman that a deal is a deal, must rank as politically incompetent as anything I have ever seen. That Trump now thinks of Malcolm as a flea-weight no-account fool only means he has the same assessment of the PM as the rest of us.

UPDATE WITH COMMENTS ON THE ARTICLE FROM THE OZ: There are now 830 comments on the linked article, and these are the top 22 in order from the list ordered according to “Top Comments” and there was no need to stop there.

1) Chronology is important here.

1. 10 months out from US presidential election, Turnbull visits US. He meets Hillary and snubs Trump.
2. In the weeks leading up to US presidential election, Turnbull does a deal with a dead duck President.
3. Turnbull and Obama agree to not announce it (hide the deal) until the US presedential election is over. They both want Hillary to get up, and the deal would be excellent ammunition for Trump in a campaign dominated by illegal immigration.
4. Trump wins. Turnbull panics.
5. Turnbull has to call Greg Norman to find out how to get in touch with Trump.
6. Turnbull announces deal publicly 5 days later, and before he has spoken to Trump about it.
7. Trump understandably gives him a smack down on the phone.
8. Turnbull spins the phone call, and in desperation to announce something good in his otherwise failing Prime Ministership, announces the deal as done.
9. Trump is annoyed that Turnbull couldn’t keep quiet. Trump has been placed in a contradictory position that could damage him politically.
10. Trump gives Turnbull a smack down on Twitter, and leaks the phone call to return the favour.

The problem exists because of Turnbull, and Turnbull alone.
– At no point has Turnbulll invested in a personal relationship with Trump. Mostly because he exists in the same elitist bubble as people who predicted a thumping Hillary win.
– He did a sneaky deal with left wingers and helped hide it from voters in the US.
– He then tried to pump his own political fortunes up and didn’t care about the damage it might do to Trump.

Turnbull has to go. He is damaging the Liberal party and the nation.

2) I feel sympathy for Trump. Why should he in the American interest accept these illegal boat people who came to this country largely for economic opportunism, they have rampaged, trashed Manus island, we won’t take them, so why should Trump call on the American taxpayer to live in America?

3) Greg Sheridan in his column today notes, Trump’s reluctance to commit to actual numbers to be resettled in the US from Manus Island or Nauru is no different from Obama’s. The Obama administration gave Turnbull an “announceable”, a media event, a virtual solution to the resettlement issue which itself did not guarantee that the US would take a single person unless it was satisfied through its own vetting procedures.

Trump is right to ask “why”? What’s in it for America? He should take all the time he needs to scrutinise this “virtual solution”.

4) Australia just keeps creating more problems for itself, by not enforcing its border laws on illegal immigrants. If they have been vetted and found to be unsuitable they should be deported.

5) This was a deal cooked up by Turnbull and Obama in the interim period between Trump winning the US election and actually taking up Office. It was very similar to Gillard’s NDIS policy, made just before she went out the door, a little bomblet if you like, to tickle up the new lot when they get in. Gillard was never going to have to take responsibility for the NDIS much like Obama with the refugee deal. What Turnbull didn’t reckon on was how Trump was going to react to what he knew was a stitch up. You are the one who blew it Malcolm, you knew Obama was gone, why did you make this deal with a bloke who was literally gone? Also, where the hell us Bishop in all this? Attending gala functions???? That will help!

6) Aubsolutely. Why Turnbull would do a deal with a outgoing President, knowing full well the incoming President’s attitude to illegal immigration, is anybodies guess. You don’t have to be real smart to work out Obama left it as a time bomb, why didn’t Turnbull recognise that? So the new President gets a call from a PM who arrogantly ignored him, as a Clinton Supporter, and on Trump’s win, asks Australia to ” stay calm” and then expects Trump to be jolly and happy about piling a bunch of economic refugees Australia does not want, into the US? Turnbull once more has shown his inability to judge the scene, and his arrogance in not being able to get it. How embarrassing for our country.

7) Of course this is a super Dumb deal. If Trump takes refugees then its a Green light to refugees to flee to Australia in hope of to getting to USA . If Trump vets and refuses to take them then nobody else in the world will take. Turnbull actions during President Elect period, fully knowing Trump stance on refugees showed no respect to incoming new President Trump and has turned a good relation to a shaky relationship. It is Turnbull who is sneaky and tricky , his Obama deal during President Elect period was poor timing, disrespectful to an incoming President and whatever the outcome not in the interest of Australia in any way.

8) This agreement was made after Trump was elected. Obama signed off on it to cause trouble for Trump. For such a highly intelligent person, couldn’t Turnbull see how this would affect Australia once Trump took charge.

9) I think Obama agreeing to the deal was a practical joke aimed at his successor, and it has worked. Turnbull thinks he was clever to get it through but he was a stooge in a practical joke.

10) I’m embarrassed as an Australian because it seems to me that Turnbull took an opportunity to offload the costly and potentially dangerous fallout from the ALP/Greens’ huge mistake onto a friendly neighbour by cynically enabling Obama’s typically unpatriotic, petulant lefty ploy to leave a landline for Trump. Like any good neighbour, Trump has to accept the steaming bucket of poop because it would be rude not to. Too clever by half, Turnbull. Did I mention that I feel embarrassed? Ashamed might be a more apt description.

11) Smart move now is for Turnbull to ring Trump and unilaterally revoke the deal. Why should we call on the US to bail us out of a relatively simple problem just because Turnbull can’t face up to The Greens and the rest of the open border mob? He’s putting the civil rights of 1250 detainees ahead of the security of the electorate. These are illegal immigrants, not refugees. If they don’t pass our security clearances, ship them back to their countries of origin. If the country of origin won’t take them, send them to the first country that gave them residency before they travelled onwards to Australia.

12) Just deport them. They flew into Indonesia then ditched their documentation before setting sail for Australia. They are criminals. What about the genuine refugees sitting in tents all over the world with no food or air conditioning.

13) Of course it’s a dumb deal for America. You have to wonder why Obama did it? What advantage is it to America?

14) This is not the first time Obama threw Australia under the bus for his own domestic political agenda. Remember his speech at University of QLD in 2014 with its thinly veiled castigation of the Abbott government for it’s stance on global warming while comparing it to the US’ achievements in carbon abatement? All conveniently neglecting to mention that a significant reason for the US’ carbon reduction was the use of coal seam gas obtained through hydraulic fracturing.

The goal was to use Australia as a whipping boy (wanting his daughters to be able to visit the barrier reef in the future) so he could prove his climate change credentials back home. But at the same time, he ruled out any show of political support for the efforts of the democratically elected government of his closest ally to do exactly what the US was doing…fracking!

15) It IS a stupid deal. It shows the Liberal Government caving in to the refugee industry. People on Nauru and Manus can go home or stay where they are.

16) Obama set this up as timebomb, and Turnbull walked into it. There is no point in blaming Trump, for the arrogance and stupidity of Obama and Turnbull, two men who knew well the attitude Trump has towards illegal refugees. Once more poor judgement from Turnbull, as Obama has the last laugh. We don’t want a bunch of economic refugees dumped on us, nor surprisingly does the US. Yet because of this deal by these two fools, they have to take them. Angry? Trump has every right to be outraged.

17) I would keep out of it Bill. Trump would make mincemeat of you. Even your Union thugs would look like choir girls, up against this bloke. Just sit back and watch the fun.

18) This is not about Trump. It is about Turnbull and Bishop with the connivence of Obama trying to pull a swifty after Trump was elected, and to leave a behind a hand grenade to embarrass him into accepting the refugees. Their arrogance is astounding.

Well, it back fired and will sound the end of Turnbull. He was less than honest with the people on reporting his conversation with Trump. This will force Corey Bernadi’s hand as the liberal/national coalition is domed. Pauling Hanson is now likely to win a majority in both Queensland and WA. People have had enough, one nation may not be the complete answer, but it is an answer. I feel extremly sorry for Peter Dutton in all this, the unsung hero of the government.

Its telling that Bishop has gone into hiding.

19) Never going to be easy in the first few months when you have to clean up Barack Obamas mess.Who would take 1250 people without passports…I agree with Trump it is a Bum deal. Turnbull is fortunate Trump has said he is prepared to proceed.

We should not forget Turnbull on his first visit to America laughed at the thought of Trump becoming President. Malcom met with Clinton and Rubio.

20) Oh get over it ! If we are so touchy that we can’t take a robust phone call from a new and besieged President over what is not an inconsiderable number of illegals, then it is we who need to toughen up. Political correctness is out and straight talking is in, and about time. At least Trump didn’t call Turnbull, barking mad, as Shorten called Trump. I would say that Turnbull was used by Obama to get one in on Trump, and Turnbull believed him.

21) Its all an act .
Donald Trump will Honour it as he knows a deal is a deal .
He doesn’t want to upset Australia so he is pretending to be outrage so it will look good domestically for him.
He has to look tough on refugees no matter where they come from

22) While the media choose to write negative articles about Trump, the real story in all of this is that Turnbull is so thoroughly out of his depth he is in danger of drowning. It was Turnbull who went to the US cozying up to Obama and Clinton (not even understanding the Trump just might win the election); it was Turnbull who did this deal with a President who was packing up to leave!

Who is the incompetent politician in this debacle – his name is Turnbull.

America’s fantasy president

Obama must truly think there are people who actually respect anything he says or does. Here we have Obama Already Out of Retirement: Ex-president gives successor exactly 10 days before making public criticism. You can read the vapid nonsense that is coming from Obama at the link. Here is some commentary on how dull-witted all of it is.

Michael Johns, who served as a speechwriter in the administration of George H.W. Bush, said it is unseemly for Obama to criticize his successor.

“This is entirely unprecedented in modern presidential politics and violates the unstated decorum that generally has governed the conduct of presidents after leaving office,” said Johns, who president and executive director of Tea Party Community. “Everything Trump has done in the first week is truly consistent with what he promised he would do.”

Mark Krikorian, executive director of the of the Center for Immigration Studies, said he figured Obama would be “psychologically incapable” of staying quiet during the Trump administration.

“It doesn’t surprise me at all,” he said. “I’m surprised it took him so long.”

Krikorian said Obama seems poised to be the “fantasy president” for people who supported Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

Johns said he was taken aback the ferocity of the response to what amounts to a short-term pause in travel from some of the most dangerous countries on earth.

The response is so ferocious because the left understands that if Trump succeeds, Republicans will be the natural party of government as far as the eye can see. The stakes are high, and while Trump remains ahead, it is still early days. But it remains as true now as it was at the start that no one on the right side of the ledger could have withstood all of this, done so much and still have remained viable.

“My favorite label is mommy”

A great interview with Kelly-Anne Conway: ‘They never saw this coming’: A Q&A with Kellyanne Conway. All to be read, but this stood out for me.

I don’t consider myself a feminist. I think my generation isn’t a big fan of labels. My favorite label is mommy. I feel like the feminist movement has been hijacked by the pro-abortion movement or the anti-male sentiments that you read in some of their propaganda and writings. I’m not anti-male. One does not need to be pro-female and call yourself a feminist, when with it comes that whole anti-male culture where we want young boys to sit down and shut up in the classroom. And we have all of these commercials that show what a feckless boob the man in the house is. That’s not the way I see the men in my life, most especially my 12-year-old son. I consider myself a postfeminist. I consider myself one of those women who is a product of her choices, not a victim of her circumstances.

Everyone is a product of our choices and the circumstances we find ourselves in. There is clearly no reason that any woman cannot reach any level in the societies of the West.

The inauguration timetable in Australia

The inauguration takes place in the early afternoon of the 20th of January in the US but will occur in Australia in the early hours of January 21st. Here is the Australian timetable.

Saturday, 1:00am AEDT

The President-elect attends a morning worship service.

Saturday, 1:30am AEDT

The Inaugural Swearing-in Ceremony begins. The crowd will be entertained by performers until the President-elect arrives.

Saturday, 2:30am AEDT

President-elect Trump heads to the White House for a meeting with soon-to-be former President Barack Obama. From there, they head to the swearing-in ceremony at the US Capitol together.

Saturday, 3:45am AEDT

Incoming vice-president Mike Pence takes his oath of office.

Saturday, 4:00am AEDT

Which is noon (local time), at which point the term of the new administration officially begins. Mr Trump will step up and take the oath of office, administered by the Chief Justice of the United States, John Roberts.

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.

Saturday, 4:10am AEDT

President Donald Trump’s Inaugural Address.

Saturday, 5:00am AEDT

After the conclusion of the inaugural ceremony, Barack Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden (as well as their families) will be escorted out by the new President and Vice-President.

Saturday, 5:30am AEDT

An Inaugural Luncheon organised by the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies.

Saturday, 6:30am AEDT

After lunch, President Trump and Vice-President Pence lead the Inaugural Parade along Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House.

Saturday, 11:00am AEDT

The day finishes with Inaugural Balls held across Washington.

Almost gone

uninstalling-obama

Listening to Obama’s last press conference. Such a windbag! Future generations are going to wonder where his reputation for being a great speaker came from. One platitude after another. If you didn’t know his record, if you didn’t know what he has actually done over the past eight years, you might even conclude he’d be an all right president. But we do know what he’s done. Cannot wait to see him gone.

FOLLOWED BY: Been watching on the BBC. The very next show is about Donald Trump who apparently thinks of himself as some kind of comic book character – Batman or Superman or something. Anyway, it’s about Trump, Putin and the “secret dossier”. Is it fact or fiction or some of both, they ask. We still don’t know. The entire story is right now, even while I’m watching, being treated as something we still need to wait on further evidence. We have even been shown a supposed tape of some businessman being taped in bed with some woman, presumably not his wife. And now they are interviewing some “Russian gangster” about this association with Trump in Moscow. Now the interviewer is in Washington looking more deeply at the evidence. And on it goes, but enough for me. What a contrast between the two stories! What a world we are about to enter. Do they know they are lying? No doubt, but they could not care less.

Standard errors of sub-standard theory

Apparently, Trump has almost entirely overlooked economists for any of the major posts which has led to this article: Economists Contemplate Life on the Outs. The President-Elect does not seem to value economists very highly, which the following reaction might help you understand why.

“Donald Trump doesn’t matter,” Yale’s Robert Shiller, the outgoing president of the American Economic Association and a winner of the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, said during a discussion of the long-run prospects for the economy. “He’ll only be here for four years and he’s gone.” Shiller later admitted that could be wishful thinking: “I’m a natural optimist, so I don’t want to speculate on how bad things could get.”

But the response that truly made me laugh is this where, to translate, economists are said to be perfectly aware how bad things might go but focus on the most likely outcomes even though improbable seriously bad events often occur instead. Here it is in their own words:

In their academic research, the more [economists] know about something, the more they emphasize their standard errors. The closer you get to the op-ed page or policy advising, the standard errors shrink down to nothing. You look at the predictions that economists made about what would happen with Brexit, what would happen with the election of Trump, what would happen with the downgrade of U.S. debt, etc., and a lot of those were appallingly wrong. I think we need to do a better job conveying some of our uncertainty, some of the standard errors around what we do.

The real story is that they don’t have a clue since they have been following standard macro with its emphasis on aggregate demand for eighty years. Shunting these people to the side is one more example of Trump’s good judgment. If he really does cut spending and cut regulations and only spends public money on what genuinely adds value, he will be doing pretty well most of what needs to be done. But having said that, I do note that the adjustment process may – may – lead through a relatively steep valley before things finally begin to improve. And now that I have covered all possibilities, we can sit back and see what actually happens.

Donald Trump is the Tom Brady of politics

It’s five in the morning where I am, but am up and watching the Patriots v the Texans. I do indeed like Boston which is why I am preparing for a wrecked day tomorrow, even though we are in Copenhagen just for the weekend. But it’s the Boston QB that I like to watch, and this is not even remotely because he is one of the few people in sport to say a good word about the president-elect.

In fact, it is very hard to find a good word said about him anywhere. But among those who do, it turns out, is Tony Abbott who has put out a statement on RESPONDING TO THE TRUMP PRESIDENCY that was published in The Oz. I have no idea whether this is much noted back home, but it does seem a useful addition to the debate. The great fear on the left is not that Trump will fail but that he will succeed. At least here there is recognition on how he might and what we might learn from Trump’s approach:

In just a few days Donald Trump will become President of the United States and leader of the free world. It’s high time for people everywhere to stop lamenting the rise of Trump and to start responding to it. If he does what he has said he would – and we have to assume he’ll try – economic policy here in Australia will need to respond fast. It will be a good opportunity for the government not just to talk about agility but actually to be agile.

There is as much to worry about what Trump does on the economy as there is to hope. But if he does succeed, and he really might, he will re-write the policy agenda for a generation to come.

Might mention that with five minutes to go in the game, Boston has not just an impossible lead, but is beating the spread. I can only hope Trump does as well.

The deep state

If you are not spooked by all of this then you are made of tougher stuff than I am.

MEDIA AND CIA FALL FOR ‘GOLDEN SHOWER’ HOAX…
TAPPER, BLITZER RATTLED…
YOU’RE ACTING LIKE NAZIS, TRUMP TELLS SPY CHIEFS…
Russian tech expert named in report never even contacted!
GREENWALD: ‘Deep State’ Sabotage…

The last of these comes with the title, “The Deep State Goes to War with President-Elect, Using Unverified Claims, as Democrats Cheer”. Here is the opening text, but I have to say this is terrifying and in no sense politics as usual, unless this really is politics as usual, although we have never actually seen it revealed so openly.

IN JANUARY, 1961, Dwight Eisenhower delivered his farewell address after serving two terms as U.S. president; the five-star general chose to warn Americans of this specific threat to democracy: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” That warning was issued prior to the decadelong escalation of the Vietnam War, three more decades of Cold War mania, and the post-9/11 era, all of which radically expanded that unelected faction’s power even further.

This is the faction that is now engaged in open warfare against the duly elected and already widely disliked president-elect, Donald Trump. They are using classic Cold War dirty tactics and the defining ingredients of what has until recently been denounced as “Fake News.”

Their most valuable instrument is the U.S. media, much of which reflexively reveres, serves, believes, and sides with hidden intelligence officials. And Democrats, still reeling from their unexpected and traumatic election loss as well as a systemic collapse of their party, seemingly divorced further and further from reason with each passing day, are willing — eager — to embrace any claim, cheer any tactic, align with any villain, regardless of how unsupported, tawdry and damaging those behaviors might be.

The serious dangers posed by a Trump presidency are numerous and manifest. There are a wide array of legitimate and effective tactics for combatting those threats: from bipartisan congressional coalitions and constitutional legal challenges to citizen uprisings and sustained and aggressive civil disobedience. All of those strategies have periodically proven themselves effective in times of political crisis or authoritarian overreach.

But cheering for the CIA and its shadowy allies to unilaterally subvert the U.S. election and impose its own policy dictates on the elected president is both warped and self-destructive. Empowering the very entities that have produced the most shameful atrocities and systemic deceit over the last six decades is desperation of the worst kind. Demanding that evidence-free, anonymous assertions be instantly venerated as Truth — despite emanating from the very precincts designed to propagandize and lie — is an assault on journalism, democracy, and basic human rationality. And casually branding domestic adversaries who refuse to go along as traitors and disloyal foreign operatives is morally bankrupt and certain to backfire on those doing it.

Morally bankrupt it most certainly is. Certain to backfire on those doing it is very optimistic. If this is how things really are, Nazi is not going too far at all in describing what is going on. If the evidence were not before our eyes of the way in which the media and the CIA have worked with the Democrats to undermine Trump’s authority you would think all of this is impossible.