My favourite book ever

No one will any longer read it, but it is the best story by the world’s greatest story teller. It is The Histories by Herodotus. I mention it only because it is discussed here in War for the West, written by possibly my favourite living essayist, Joseph Epstein. The subheading for the article is, “What if the Persians had defeated the Greeks?” Just a bit of the article to give you a taste, and what I have found wonderous was that not all that long ago, the mayor of Athens was someone named Themistocles.

One cannot award so grand a victory to any single city-state or heroic figure, yet without the Athenians and Themistocles Greece would doubtless have fallen to Xerxes. Thermopylae apart, during the Persian war the Spartans, in Peter Green’s words, showed “over-cautious conservatism, slowness to move in a crisis.” In the war itself no city-state paid a higher price than the Athenians, having their city occupied and destroyed and all of surrounding Attica devastated by Persian troops. The Persian invasion goaded Athens, abetted through the suasion of Themistocles, to convert from a standard hoplite infantry to a naval power. When the Athenian silver mines at Laurium struck a rich vein, Themistocles convinced the assembly at Athens that the profits from the mines, rather than be divided among the populace, be used to build the Athenian fleet up from 70 to 200 triremes. He had also convinced them to build up the fortifications round the harbor at Piraeus, which would house these ships.

A tougher sale came later when Themistocles persuaded the Athenians to desert their city before the onslaught of the Persians and board their new fleet, with older men and women and children and their valuables sent off to safety at Aegina, Salamis, and Troezen. The winning strategy at Salamis, that of drawing the Persian ships into the narrow straits where the Greek triremes awaited, was also devised by Themistocles, and the Greek victory at Salamis is surely among the most significant battles in all history. Perhaps most impressive of all, Themistocles was able to convince the various Greek city-states to set aside their rivalries and join together, if only temporarily, to fight the barbarian foe. As Plutarch writes, Themistocles “put an end to all the civil wars of Greece, composed their differences, and persuaded them to lay aside all enmity during the war with the Persians.”

What makes Themistocles of special interest is that he wasn’t, like Pericles or Marcus Aurelius, a man of sterling character. He was closer to a Chicago politician, an operator, a main chancer, not above accepting bribes nor bribing others. No one was more adroit than he at manipulating the new Athenian democracy, perhaps because no one more embodied it in his person than he. “Themistocles,” wrote the classicist Maurice Bowra, “was the personification of the vigorous Athenian spirit.” In the language of the current day, Tom Holland notes that “he could infight, he could network, he could spin.” Herodotus does not pass up an opportunity to emphasize Themistocles’ wiliness. But Themistocles was ultimately wily for the public good. “I cannot tune a harp,” Themistocles said, “but I know how to take a modest city in hand and raise it to greatness.” Which is precisely what he did.

What happened after that you will need to read Epstein’s article to find out, or perhaps better, to read Herodotus’s Histories for yourself.

Your liberties are being taken away

This is the title Virologist accuses Fauci of cover-up – Video but just try getting the video. Try yourself, because I could not. Here’s the entire post:

“You need to wake up! Your liberties are being taken away, all because of the fake news that’s out there.”

Dr Judy Mikovits, PhD., molecular biologist and science researcher, accuses Dr Anthony Fauci of directing a cover-up.” What he (Fauci) is saying is absolute propaganda, the same kind of propaganda that he’s perpetrated to kill millions since 1984,” says Dr Mikovits, a former AIDS scientist. She says Fauci was responsible for the deaths of millions during the early years of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

(For those ten people in the world who may not know who Fauci is, he is director of the National Institute or Allergy and Infectious Diseases and has been heading the corona virus pandemic task force.)

Video

Mikovits, who wrote the book Plague of Corruption, is featured in a video attempting to expose Fauci, but the video keeps being removed from YouTube, Facebook and other outlets. That video can be seen here:  plandemicmovie.com.

Here are a few excerpts from the video:

“If we activate mandatory vaccines globally, I imagine these people that own the vaccines (Fauci, Redfield, Gates) stand to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” says Mikovits.

And yet, “there is no vaccine currently on the schedule for any rna virus that works.”

“If Fauci can’t be honest with the public about his connection with this lab (the Wuhan Institute of Virology), then Fauci has to go.”

Doctors wonder: “Why are we being pressured to add ‘covid’ to death certificates?”

Answer: “To increase the numbers…fear is a great way to control people.”

“Doctors are being incentivized to say that people died of Covid-19.” “Yeah. Thirteen thousand dollars from Medicare if you call it Covid-19.”

“In a survey polling nearly 2,300 doctors in 30 countries, hydroxychlorquine ranked as the most effective medication to treat the virus.”

“There is (sic) no dissenting voices allowed any more in this free country.”

“It’s beyond comprehension how a society can be so fooled, that the types of propaganda continue to where they’re just driving us to hate each other.”

“You need to wake up! Your liberties are being taken away, all because of the fake news that’s out there.”

Mikovits also accuses Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a prominent member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, of being responsible for the deaths of millions during the early years of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Thanks to Michele Selover for this video.

Again, the video can be seen here: www.plandemicmovie.com

Actually at the time of posting, the video cannot be seen. They may really be taking your liberties away. You may know it, you may be able to observe it. But you won’t be able to do a thing.

Common sense has passed away

Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years.
No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape. He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:
– Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
– Why the early bird gets the worm;
– Life isn’t always fair;
– And maybe it was my fault.
Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don’t spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).
His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.
Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children.
It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.
Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims.
Common Sense took a beating when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.
Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot . She spilled a little in her lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.
Common Sense was preceded in death,
-by his parents, Truth and Trust,
-by his wife, Discretion,
-by his daughter, Responsibility,
-and by his son, Reason.
He is survived by his 5 stepchildren;
– I Know My Rights
– I Want It Now
– Someone Else Is To Blame
– I’m A Victim
– Pay me for Doing Nothing
Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone.  If you still remember him, pass this on. If not, join the majority and do nothing.
 
 


— 

 

From The Times of London.

Models are not evidence

Seems sensible to me.

Models are not scientific evidence. Evidence is proof of something that has already happened. Model predictions have not happened.

Repeat it with me:

Models are not evidence.

Models are not evidence.

Models are not evidence.

This is true about lots of things, specially in economics. First the conception, then the model, then the real world, then the application, then the failure and then the forgetting about what happened so that the same mistakes can be made all over again.

Models are not evidence was a comment on this post at Instapundit. Along with these.

If there is a silver lining to this event, perhaps it will be that more people will come to understand why the models for climate change should not be taken as gospel. Models are based on assumptions, and the more complex the model, the greater the number of assumptions. When our so-called experts were so wrong with the models for a virus that acts much like many other similar viruses, how the heck can anyone expect experts to correctly model the interaction of everything in the earth’s atmosphere? It makes no sense.

Everyone’s got a cold, let’s shut the economy down. The hyperbole is strongly on the side of the jackboots.

If you want to live in fear, stay in your stinking lair and obey your government masters, you quivering slave.

It’s going to be fun watching the Blue City State folk impoverish themselves in an attempt to damage Trump’s re-election. While the rest of us are at work, restaurants, gyms, shopping, etc. At some point, they will have to throw in the towel and grudgingly rejoin the rest of the country, with the (delicious, to me) knowledge that this will enable Trump 2020.

I always ask them “why not lower the speed limit to 25mph too? If it saves one life…”

Don’t mean to be argumentative, but GIGO is only part of the problem. In all modeling software the data inputs are usually “tuned” by weighting factors. These factors are sometimes based on experiential data matrices or historical observations and collective norming, but at times they are little more than “knowledgeable estimates.” With experience – a whole lot of detailed experience – a model designer can fine tune the formulation and weighting factors to increase accuracy but this process is often somewhat less than rigorous “scientific method.” Consequently, in some instances, “modeling” is little more than a fancy word for guessing.

When they drew the line in the sand back at the start of March, Sarah was the only mod here who backed a free people and supported individual liberty. The rest went apocalyptic, demanding we sacrifice our rights for the common good (Yes, Glenn Reynolds wrote a USA Today article using that phrase), and screaming that the authorities weren’t locking us down fast enough. When push comes to shove, I know Sarah will support me and my freedoms, and that the rest of the mods here will happily sacrifice me. Don’t ignore that very important data point.

The government screwed up and by the way the worker lost his thumb

Here’s the story – Coroanvirus: Infected nurse not told of abattoir risk – which was on the front page of The Oz. It shows a phenomenal level of incompetence by the Victorian public service. I will slightly unscramble the narrative to emphasise what it says.

There is deep concern among those close to a 60 year old nurse that the Health Department and therefore the hospital had not identified an infection in a Cedar Meats worker on April 2 as a risk to the workplace.

The Sunshine Hospital nurse was not initially required to wear appropriate personal protective equipment while treating the worker, because the hospital had not been made aware of the risks.

The nurse was infected with COVID-19 while treating a Cedar Meats worker WITH A SEVERED THUMB because authorities had not alerted the hospital.

[This statement is in the paper but not online] The Australian has been told the nurse has lost her senses of smell and taste, along with her appetite, and is feeling extremely tired.

How often does losing a thumb happen in the public sector?

“Please Do  Not Feed the Animals”

Once in a while we just have to stand back in awe of government .
The Food Stamp Program,  administered by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, is proud to be distributing the greatest amount
of free Meals and Food Stamps  ever, to 46 million people.

Meanwhile, the National Park Service,  administered by the U.S.
Department of the Interior, asks us “Please Do  Not Feed the Animals.”
Their stated reason for the policy is because   “The animals will grow
dependent on handouts and will not learn to take care of themselves.”

Thus ends today’s lesson in  irony.

The need for sense and proportionality

Following my post on the History of Economic website, The presumption must always be in favour of individual rights and personal freedom, I received a number of comments off line which have made me think about how different the political world we live in is from Mill’s. The economics is still the same but the political philosophies that surround us are quite quite different.

I have had a number of comments sent to me offline that have made me think more deeply about the use of Mill’s principle in regard to the way in which the notion of “actions that are prejudicial to the interests of others” can be manipulated for sinister purposes. As our moderator noted right at the start of this discussion, this is an economics discussion forum, and with this in mind, let me note it is disturbing to see the way in which this entire episode surrounding the coronavirus has morphed into a form of centralised, socialist, and indeed fascist totalitarian outcome in which our economies have become, for all practical purposes, a centralised command economy in which the principles of Modern Monetary Theory seem to have become the means of organising production and providing incomes. Beyond that, parts of the food production industry have been ordered to stay open and to continue to produce even though their own individual profitability positions would have induced them either to reduce production or even close down. What is more worrisome still is that there seems to be only a small constituency who recognise the immense dangers to our political freedoms and to our longer-term economic prosperity. The billions and trillions of public sector outlays that have flowed out into the economy in a matter of months, while major enterprises such as our airlines have been closed down, suggests such a massive lack of understanding about how our societies operate and provision themselves, that I fear we will wake up in the not too distant future within economies that are no longer anything like as wealthy as they were, and find ourselves living within communities that are no longer anywhere as free as they once had been.

It really is, moreover, a worry how easily such major restrictions were accepted on our wandering down the street in the middle of the day, going out to shop, or showing up at a cafe with friends. Behind all of these restrictions are businesses that are going to the wall, people who have lost their livelihoods and public sector deficits that are mounting that will inevitably lead to some kind of major fiscal retribution and possibly even to an uncontainable inflation. Governments can certainly act on our behalf in restricting some of our freedoms as a matter of principle, such as by imposing a military draft. But there is also the need for some kind of sense and proportionality. The world in which Mill lived could not have contemplated the actions we have taken. Today, with our massive bureaucracies, and with our media unable, or perhaps even unwilling, to explain the major risks we have taken on, we seem to be blundering into a Venezuelan future that may become impossible to reverse.

You know what? No one knows.

The presumption must always be in favour of individual rights and personal freedom

This was posted at the Societies for the History of Economics website a couple of weeks back.

Of course, with the spread of the COVID virus, I have been thinking of the libertarian arguments of the constraints of government on liberty. But now the constraint on liberty is not from the government but from nature where one’s individual actions can harm others. I would assume that for a responsible libertarian, they would recognize their behavior affects the liberty (health) of another, and change their behavior. Besides having rights, liberty also means individual responsibility to protect the liberty of others from one’s actions. But what if individuals don’t and add to the tragedy of the commons?

If one believes ecological economists, individual constraints are going to increase with global warming. It is only by acting collectively to control global warming that we will be able to protect personal liberty from the constraints that nature will force on us. The point I’m getting at is that besides demanding rights, individuals need to act responsibly. If not, then collective action needs to step in to protect the common good. The libertarian argument for me has only made sense if individuals besides demanding rights are also willing to respect and act to protect the rights of others. If not, you get too many tragedies of the commons.

Irritating, specially when he brought global warming into the picture, and then another pair blew in to support this same argument. But before I could buy in myself three others joined in to argue the other side so I let it go, until yesterday. Then I posted this:

I am sorry to be buying back into this exchange of views after so long, but in editing something today I came across a passage in John Stuart Mill from his On Liberty. These are the first two paragraphs of Chapter V, “Applications”, which I believe discusses the point made in this earlier post.

The principles asserted in these pages must be more generally admitted as the basis for discussion of details, before a consistent application of them to all the various departments of government and morals can be attempted with any prospect of advantage. The few observations I propose to make on questions of detail, are designed to illustrate the principles, rather than to follow them out to their consequences. I offer, not so much applications, as specimens of application; which may serve to bring into greater clearness the meaning and limits of the two maxims which together form the entire doctrine of this Essay, and to assist the judgment in holding the balance between them, in the cases where it appears doubtful which of them is applicable to the case.

The maxims are, first, that the individual is not accountable to society for his actions, in so far as these concern the interests of no person but himself. Advice, instruction, persuasion, and avoidance by other people if thought necessary by them for their own good, are the only measures by which society can justifiably express its dislike or disapprobation of his conduct. Secondly, that for such actions as are prejudicial to the interests of others, the individual is accountable and may be subjected either to social or to legal punishments, if society is of opinion that the one or the other is requisite for its protection.

If, during a pandemic, wandering down the street in the middle of the day, going shopping, or showing up at a cafe with friends, is deemed to be “prejudicial to the interests of others, the individual is accountable” then our individual rights may in such circumstances be abridged. Being restated was what John Stuart Mill had already made clear in 1859. With this found not just in Mill, but in his On Liberty, then it is hard to argue this undefined belief system he described as “libertarian”, whatever this may in reality be, is opposed to communal action of this kind on principle. Even so, the presumption must be in favour of individual rights and personal freedom. At the beginning when this virus had only begun to have an effect on individuals and our communities, no one had any clear idea of the extent of the problem we were dealing with. Now that the smoke is clearing, and we have become aware of how much of an exaggerated concern there originally was, the issue must surely have become not whether but how soon the restrictions that have been placed on society ought to be lifted. That too would be consistent with the arguments made by Mill, whose argument must be the terms in which these issues are discussed if we are to continue to live in a free society.