Do Donald Trump and Andrew Bolt not have exactly the same position on migration?

My wife and I have just watched the segment on Bolt with Niall Ferguson and then Rowan Dean where the issue of multiculturalism and immigration was at the centre of the conversation. The way I would construct what was said is this:

  • there is this problem associated with migration where some people are entering the country who do not wish to become part of the majority culture
  • this has now created social tensions causing people to look for political solutions
  • the result has been this terrible situation where “populists” like Donald Trump are now able to get political traction.

My question then is this: In what way is Donald Trump not attempting to solve the very problem Andrew Bolt and the others have raised? They can give it any name they please, but when you get right down to it, the issue is how do we ensure that those allowed to migrate into Australia will become Australians, or in the US case, Americans.

So I will repeat what I have said before, following Kant: if you would will the end, you must will the means. Commentators, historians and magazine editors are not political leaders, and their skills are not in devising political programs. Are not Trump’s ends their ends? If not, what is it exactly that they do want? And if they more or less do share Trump’s ends, do they not see that he is onto something in the approach he is taking? Or if they support the ends but not the means, how would they go about achieving these ends?

It just does seem to me that they do support the ends that Trump is promoting, but for some reason find themselves unwilling to endorse either the means or the man.

Not even a paper tiger, more like a paper kitten

With Obama still president, the only person more mindful that Obama still has another seven months of havoc creation time available is Obama himself. Here is Victor Davis Hanson discussing How Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy De-Stabilized the World. But with time running out on Obama, as Hanson notes, this is prime time for troublemaking while Obama is still around:

Aggressors are not sure whether Hillary Clinton, if elected, will govern more like a traditional Democratic president committed to leading the Western alliance. And if Donald Trump were to be elected, no aggressor would know exactly why, when, or how he might strike back at them.

Given those uncertainties, it may seem wise in the waning months of 2016 for aggressors to go for broke against the predictable Obama administration before the game is declared over in 2017. For that reason, the next few months may prove the most dangerous since World War II.

Being published on the same day as we read all of this on Drudge:

CHINA WARNS USA: MILITARY READY ‘IF PROVOKED’
China Ready to Launch Nuke Subs…
NATO finalises military build-up to counter [more unpredictable] Russia
HUNGARY: US WANTS TO FILL EUROPE WITH MUSLIM MIGRANTS
Iran Is Demanding Reparations From US for 63 Years of ‘Spiritual and Material Damage’
EGYPTAIR PLANE DISAPPEARS FROM RADAR…

And what is Obama up to? Here is the latest news from Washington: Guard Charged With Assault After Confronting Transgender Woman Using Women’s Restroom, Police Say.

Those of you in Perth might be interested in seeing David Archibald, who is the author of the book Australia’s Defence (Connor Court), discuss all of this:

Free Public Lecture
Australia’s Defence
By David Archibald
Wednesday 25th May 2016
7:00pm at the Irish Club
61 Townshend Road, Subiaco
(between Hay St and Churchill Avenue)
Doors open at 6:30pm

The lecture includes 126 slides and will take one and a half hours. For a copy of the slide presentation, email him at: davidarchibald@australianliberty.org. I note that David is an ALA candidate in West Australia, but this should not in any way be seen as an endorsement for the ALA.

America’s anti-American foreign policy

This is one of the most insightful articles on American politics I have come across in quite a while. The title is “Anti-Americanism is the Foreign Policy of Fools”, but it’s his sub-title that more closely explains the text: Anti-Americanism is the only foreign policy that the American Left needs. The point is that the left has no foreign policy other than to oppose Republicans. It is simply a vehicle for domestic political advantage. The actual outcomes across the world are of no consequence other than in terms of whether or not it allows Democrats to win elections. But what makes this policy so profoundly striking is that at the centre of the political views of the left, and what gives it whatever consistency it has, is a deep and unabiding anti-Americanism. The article begins with an observation on Ben Rhodes, who by now should need no introduction.

Ben Rhodes knows next to nothing about foreign policy. He has no idea whether Iran will get nukes and couldn’t care less whether it’s moderate or not. He’s a failed fiction writer whose goal is “radically reorienting American policy in the Middle East in order to make the prospect of American involvement in the region’s future wars a lot less likely”. . . .

Rhodes sneers at the reporters whom he manipulated as knowing nothing. And he’s right. But he also doesn’t know anything. The condition is typical of an American left which has no foreign policy. It only has an anti-American domestic policy which it projects internationally without regard to its relevance.

What has brought Rhodes to prominence is his involvement in selling Obama’s capitulation to Iran.

The Iran deal had to happen to defeat “neo-conservatives”, the “war lobby” and whatever other leftist boogeyman was lurking around the premises. The men and women doing the defeating, like Rhodes, had zero interest in what was actually happening in Iran or what its leaders might do with nuclear weapons. They would tell any lie to help sell the deal because they were fighting a domestic battle of narratives. Iran wasn’t a real place. It was a fictional counter in a domestic ideological battle.

He provides another example from the previous Democrat administration:

Bill Clinton had no foreign policy. Like Obama, he viewed foreign policy in terms of his domestic conflicts with Republicans. He tried to engage diplomatically while retreating militarily. His botched intervention in Yugoslavia had strong similarities to Obama’s disastrous intervention in Libya.

The argument is that American foreign policy is, so far as the Democrats are concerned, merely domestic policy. The consistent theme is opposition to traditional American values which means opposition to the Judeo-Christian tradition.

Anti-Americanism, like most prejudices, is a license for ignorance. By embracing a prejudice against their own country, Democrats have lost any skill at foreign policy that they once had. Instead of learning anything about the world, they resort to the easy answer of turning away from the confusing problems of other countries to blame them all on us. Anti-Americanism is the only foreign policy that they need.

Until now, the Democrats could maintain this position without actually damaging America itself although the damage elsewhere has been immense. That is no longer so. Either the policy will have to go or America will. It will be impossible for both to exist long term.

A vote for the Liberals is not a vote for Malcolm

We all know that Malcolm Turnbull would not lift a finger to stop illegal immigration if things were up to him. The boats would just roll on in and nothing of consequence would be done. If you are looking for a reminder, you can find one here. He is a shallow narcissist, but most importantly represents none of the values that brought the Coalition to government in 2013. In contrast, I do not know what Bill Shorten himself believes, other than that he believes with all his heart that the polling shows that stopping the boats is a major aim across Australia. Unfortunately for him, but fortunately for us, many of his Parliamentary colleagues prefer virtue signalling to winning the next election.

Here, however, is what we find today: Federal election 2016: Turnbull leaves Shorten at sea over refugees.

Malcolm Turnbull has captured the necessary spirit on asylum-seekers for a Coalition leader and confronted suggestions that he is “soft on boats”.

There was no lawyerly dissembling for the Prime Minister yesterday; no awkward body language nor any weasel words as he not only defended Peter ­Dutton’s unvarnished reality about the financial cost of taking refugees, but also refined and ­extended the argument.

Turnbull heartily embraced the Immigration Minister’s “brutal” and “no sugar-coated” view of ­illegal boat arrivals and the cost of caring for refugees after Bill ­Shorten tried to turn border protection into a positive for Labor.

He might well have picked up one of Tony’s old set of speaking notes as he left for the press conference. Even as dense as he is, he knows that in the party he is the nominal leader of, he has no choice but to take this line. The slightest softness and he might well be cut down overnight by the party room. But as the next para in the story puts it:

Labor hopes to prove Turnbull inconsistent and insincere on ­social issues he once supported.

And that’s just the point. Malcolm’s own personal beliefs count for absolutely nothing. This is the view of the party room and it is absolutely united on this one issue, which may yet be the decisive issue in this election. There is then the National Party after that.

The idea of voting out the Coalition to teach those traitorous 52 Liberals a lesson is so bizarrely self-defeating that it leaves me dumbfounded. Rather than being Machiavellian – daringly clever in achieving some subtle but desirable conspiratorial end – it is the absolute opposite. It can never make sense to give your enemies a victory they don’t deserve. Losing is not a form of winning. Malcolm being the empty suit he is, will soon find the international environment dominated by a new President of the United States who is in many important respects, the American Tony Abbott. Malcolm will therefore adjust his views to suit the time, and one can only hope that sometime in 2017, he will be given his own gold (Cartier) watch and shoved out the Parliamentary door. Malcolm’s authority is diminishing each day as others begin to see him for what he is. There is so much political insanity around, getting the Libs back may be one of the most crucial election results in Australian history.

There is no such thing as a predictive theory of surprise, change and innovation

The argument is not new, which only means that it is a truth long known: The new astrology – By fetishising mathematical models, economists turned economics into a highly paid pseudoscience. But I have to say that this is a very long and tedious article, so long and tedious that no one will ever read it, at least among the economists. And this is point blank wrong:

After the Great Recession, the failure of economic science to protect our economy was once again impossible to ignore.

The failure of economic theory has been the least discussed issue among economists I have ever seen. If there has been a serious post mortem, I haven’t come across it. And the supposed issue, if any has arisen, has been the failure to predict the GFC which could never have been predicted. Even trying to trace it after it all happened has been near impossible. A crisis will almost inevitably seem to come from nowhere, although there will be some who can say afterwards that they could see it all before. The actual problem is with the theory itself, but let us go to the text to see what they have to say:

Ultimately, the problem is . . . with uncritical worship of the language used to model them, and nowhere is this more prevalent than in economics. The economist Paul Romer at New York University has recently begun calling attention to an issue he dubs ‘mathiness’ – first in the paper ‘Mathiness in the Theory of Economic Growth’ (2015) and then in a series of blog posts. Romer believes that macroeconomics, plagued by mathiness, is failing to progress as a true science should, and compares debates among economists to those between 16th-century advocates of heliocentrism and geocentrism. Mathematics, he acknowledges, can help economists to clarify their thinking and reasoning. But the ubiquity of mathematical theory in economics also has serious downsides: it creates a high barrier to entry for those who want to participate in the professional dialogue, and makes checking someone’s work excessively laborious. Worst of all, it imbues economic theory with unearned empirical authority. . . .

Romer is not the first to elaborate the mathiness critique. In 1886, an article in Science accused economics of misusing the language of the physical sciences to conceal ‘emptiness behind a breastwork of mathematical formulas’. More recently, Deirdre N McCloskey’s The Rhetoric of Economics (1998) and Robert H Nelson’s Economics as Religion (2001) both argued that mathematics in economic theory serves, in McCloskey’s words, primarily to deliver the message ‘Look at how very scientific I am.’

You cannot use maths because there is nothing to count, or at least nothing to count that really counts. That, and the fact that what was true last year is only the most imperfect guide to what will happen next. You cannot have a predictive theory of surprise, change and innovation. You can only have a theory of what conditions will lead to surprise, change and innovation, but that was done by the 1850s.

The Murdoch-Trump alliance

I might start being able to read The Oz again: Why Rupert Murdoch Decided to Back Donald Trump. It is dearly to be wished. From which:

The Murdoch-Trump alliance is the result of at least two private meetings between the billionaires this spring as well as phone calls from Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Murdoch’s view, according to those who’ve spoken with him, is that Trump is a winner whom the “elites” failed to take seriously. “He doesn’t like people to be snobs and treat Trump like a clown,” one person explained. Murdoch’s outlook is also informed by his take on the winnowed GOP field. When it came down to the final three candidates, Murdoch simply saw Trump as the best option. “He never liked Cruz,” the source explained. Kasich made a personal pitch to Murdoch that he could win on a second ballot at the convention, but failed to persuade. In March, Murdoch tweeted that the GOP would “be mad not to unify” behind Trump.

And hopefully after our election, he can have another look at Turnbull again, assuming the Libs win, of course. I look forward to Niki Savva’s next book on The Subtle Genius and Hidden Strengths of Tony Abbott. But first the Coalition has to win.

A little test you can try at home

Scott Adams – that’ right, Dilbert’s Scott Adams – on About those policy details. It is Trump’s policy details he had in mind, but the issue is no doubt universal in democracies if the argument is actually valid:

Here’s a little test you can try at home. In your mind, divide your friends and coworkers into two groups. One group understands a lot about making business decisions and one group has no business experience. Ask each of them individually this question:

How much detail should Trump provide on his policies?

A. Lots of detail so we know exactly what he plans to do.

B. We only need the big picture now because the details will be negotiated later, and the environment will change by then. Also, presidents have access to better advice and information than candidates.

I predict that your most experienced friends and coworkers will choose B. Let me know in the comments how it goes.

By the time I got to it, there were 3651 comments.

Life’s essential skills

A list of 25 Essential Skills I Wish Somebody Taught Me When I Was Younger. I will give you the last one, but if this is 25th, and it rightly belongs at the end, think of how useful the previous 24 might be:

25. How To Manage Your Personal Finances

Rule #1: Spend less than you earn.

Rule #2: Get another source of income (possibly a passive one)

Rule #3: Invest in assets (opportunities that have Return on Investment)

“Some of these,” as he writes, “can be learned within several hours while some require more than that. But, you have to know that learning even one of these skills can help you grow exponentially and give you incredible results in every area of your life.”