Weak and fragile

global-growth

The chart is from Bloomberg so we can presume it’s reasonably accurate. I put it up since the outcome is exactly what I had expected. What more interesting is the alarmist title of the article: “Existential Threat to World Order Confronts Elite at IMF Meeting”. They really don’t have a clue, do they? Here’s one more example that they don’t see the order of cause and effect nor their own role in it:

Fed by stagnant wages and diminishing job security, the populist uprising threatens to depress a world economy that International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde says is already “weak and fragile.”

If things were strong and robust, no one would be saying a thing. The populist uprising is because these people are so incompetent, and the rest of us find it nerve wracking to watch them in action. I particular liked this:

Lagarde said last week that policy makers attending the Oct. 7-9 annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank have two tasks. First, do no harm, which above all means resisting the temptation to throw up protectionist barriers to trade. And second, take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive.

They wish to do no harm wish to but take action to boost global growth. And I like the implied definition of free trade found here:

Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of free trade over the past generation, China, still restricts access to many of its key industries, with economists worried about increasingly mercantilist policies. . . .

“The consensus in policy-making circles was that more trade meant better economic growth,” said Standard Chartered head of Greater China economic research Ding Shuang, who worked at the IMF from 1997 to 2010. “But the benefits weren’t shared equitably, so now we see a round of anti-globalization, anti-free trade.

The article didn’t say the form on which these economic leaders intend to “take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive” but my guess is they will try the same old tired nonsense that has done so well so far, as the data above can attest.

Redemption is always possible

Woodstock Nation meets the Jewish New Year: Sha Na Na Tova. Great title. The final para:

“They say you can’t go back again, but we did,” Cooper said a few weeks later when I ask him about that night. “It was just a magical night.”

On the day they performed at Woodstock, I was a long-haired New Left dragoon with no idea about anything except …. You know, I had no idea about anything but wanted to find out more so that I could know something. This chap now teaches religious studies. I teach free market economics. There is hope, but not for everyone.

My mantra on this has always been that I am very sorry that this transformation of our Western society happened at all, but if it had to happen, I wanted to be part of the transition team, which I was.

Hillary’s remake of The Sting

Thought of this last night but someone has already been there. It is surprising that more has not been made of the possibility that Hillary was in cahoots with the moderator although I can see that this is not the time for a distraction of this kind. The lessons of the first debate have no doubt been absorbed. Remembering The Sting may require you to be of a certain age. A fantastic film if you haven’t seen it with a surprising degree of relevance in the present election.

Internet in whose hands now?

obama-internet

So it has come to this: US cuts cord on internet oversight.

The US government on Saturday ended its formal oversight role over the internet, handing over management of the online address system to a global non-profit entity.

The US Commerce Department announced that its contract had expired with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, which manages the internet’s so-called “root zone.”

That leaves ICANN as a self-regulating organization that will be operated by the internet’s “stakeholders” — engineers, academics, businesses, non-government and government groups.

The move is part of a decades-old plan by the US to “privatize” the internet, and backers have said it would help maintain its integrity around the world.

The last bit is truly a marvel. The things that some people believe!

Why economic theory is not self-correcting

This is about the hard sciences mostly, but fits into my astonishment that Keynesian economics seems to survive every failure: Why Science Is Not Necessarily Self-Correcting.

In the absence of replication efforts, one is left with unconfirmed (genuine) discoveries and unchallenged fallacies. In several fields of investigation, including many areas of psychological science, perpetuated and unchallenged fallacies may comprise the majority of the circulating evidence.

Of course, with economics we are not even dealing with replicatable experiments but simply the received theory that is built into the models that are used to test them. It does seem to me that economists only look at models and never at what’s going on outside their windows in the actual economy. And although few economists even know this, the datasets they use – such as GDP, the CPI and the unemployment rate – are almost entirely designed to deceive rather than enlighten.

The 2016 UK HET Conference in Shanghai

ukhet-group-photo

The UK History of Economic Thought Conference this year was held in Shanghai because, as I understand it, the Chinese are interested in pursuing HET and want to see how it is done. They get it, that HET brings an extra and extremely important dimension to the study of economics, something it is hard to convince economists in the West about.

The UK meeting is always extremely good, and this one was no exception, in large part because they only have a handful of presentations and they are always plenary sessions so that for presenters, you really are guaranteed the benefit of listening to comments from quite knowledgable people. And on this occasion because all of the fees and expenses were paid (but not the air fares), and partly because it was in Shanghai, it did seem to attract an astonishing array of high quality papers. It was very pleasing to be included. The group photo is above.

Cheating at the debate

There are issues large and small that do make you wonder. This is among the small, but is neither irrelevant or insignificant: Presidential Debate Commission Admits Trump’s Mic Was Messed Up. Trump said it on the day but now it is confirmed.

But then there is the larger ones the most extraordinary one being the removal of Hillary’s notes from her podium by someone who then immediately crosses paths with the moderator after exchanging knowing looks. At Google, it is practically gone, although there were a few versions of this available a few days ago in a more extended form. I only found the one below which followed on from a much more brief version. It shows the man with grey hair and glasses taking something from Hillary’s podium and then looking over at the moderator before they briefly cross paths in the middle of the stage, but then goes on with much much more.

Why would you doubt for a second that if they could cheat they would cheat? And why would you doubt that the media would be in on it to the hilt?

Not even near peak stupid

wind-production

The text that came with the chart is unsourced but quite interesting:

The blackout of the entirety of South Australia is a poignant lesson as to why wind power is nonsense.

You will hear from a whole heap of truth deniers trying to protect the eco-crucifix industry by saying that the blackout had nothing to do with the fact that Labor has made South Australia completely reliant on renewable energy for its power.

But the cold hard fact is that the knockout of a transmission tower would not have stopped power being generated by a decent network with reliable coal-fired baseload power. What knocked out the power was the fact that every wind turbine powering South Australia ceased to operate as soon as wind speeds reached a critical level. They cannot produce power when there isn’t enough wind and they can’t produce power when then there’s too much wind. The proof: this graph showing wind power energy production in South Australia yesterday.

Thank God we aren’t reliant on those useless, bird-chopping wind turbine monstrosities here in Queensland.

I have now seen this South Australian story told round the world but in a way that suggests that this is just one of those really idiotic things that happened one time in some out of the way place in Australia. Really only mentioned for a laugh. Yet the people who did this are everywhere and wherever you find them they really are incapable of seeing and understanding cause and effect, but are filled with emotion about some remote possibility 50 to a 100 years from now. Unfortunately there is worse to come before it is better.

Just how unique is Australia!

aussie-mussies

For those who need translation: this is a cover story from The Australian Spectator on the Australian Muslim community. Nowhere else in the world would such a cover be possible. Australia must save itself. It really is the best country in the world in so many ways, but there is a lot of downside potential if we are not very very careful. The rest of the world seems to be a case study in lack of care.