The most interesting part about the Vice Presidential debate was that there was not a dime’s worth of difference between the arguments put by Mike Pence and the views of Donald Trump. The difference is entirely in presentation along with the various self-imposed constraints that Pence has learned through many years of experience. He knows how to phrase what he says and knows how to craft the arguments just so. But so far as what they amount to, they are exactly the same as Trump’s.

Kaine on the other hand was a much worse version of Hillary. She was more polished and understood her position and how to present it to the back teeth. I found Kaine irritating and shallow to a startling degree. I have always recognised that anecdote is the replacement for analysis when you are dealing with people unused to complex ideas. But if underneath anything he said there actually was a complex idea of any sort, I missed it.

Pence described how a Trump administration would deal with national defence, illegal immigration, economic revival and racial tensions. He defended removing illegals along with stop and frisk policing. What possibly surprised me most about Kaine was the extent to which he repeated Trump’s policy proposals over and again, I imagine under the assumption that just to hear what Trump wishes to do is automatically to be in opposition. That’s what comes from locking oneself in the media sounding board where no other ideas seem to come through. My suspicion, however, is that for those who like what Trump has to offer, it is exactly what he proposes that is what they like. Kaine did no more than reinforce in the minds of Trump’s supporters why they are voting as they are.

Who knows if any of the more difficult parts can be done? But there is little doubt that most Americans want a stronger military, defeat of ISIS, border security, a revival of the economy, a tax system that promotes economic growth and a more cohesive community.

And then there were the two personalities on display. Kaine had no presence or substance. Pence seemed a deeper thinker who has had his ideas forged in the fires of debate among those who disagree with many of the things he says. As a conservative, even in a party of the right, he would be a lonely presence. It was a positive pleasure to listen to him.

Trump-Pence are not just running mates, but might hopefully even be thought of as a succession plan. I think this election remains a toss up. But if Trump should manage to win in November, and Pence remains a typical example of the kinds of personnel that Trump chooses for the various slots in his administration, there is reason – perhaps only dimly – but there is reason to hope for improvement, and not just a minor relief but even long term.

Only Trump makes this at all possible. Pence, however, provides evidence how it might even be done.

Mike Pence and Tom Kaine @ noon today AEDT. The usual channels. For some background: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37455377 on the two men who might be president.

A journalist generally has about as much education and worldly knowledge as a Grade IV teacher. Which is why we have this from today’s Cut & Paste:

But at The Sydney Morning Herald, veteran Canberra hand Tony Wright suggested The Donald had enjoyed some familiarity with lines of Peruvian marching powder:

Donald Trump made a fool of himself so many times it wasn’t worth counting. He told half-truths and plucked lies out of the air (“I opposed the ­invasion of Iraq”). He blurted streams of incomprehensible free association. He raved, interrupted and sniffled like a coke addict.

As it happens, I didn’t then and don’t now oppose the war in Iraq. It has turned out disastrous, but who could have expected an incompetent foreign policy dunce like Obama would become the American President (who, for the record, is equally incompetent on domestic policy).

Trump did oppose the War in Iraq, but not the War in Afghanistan, which means he took the same position as Obama but I would not expect any “journalist” to know this since few of them seem to want to know facts that are contrary to what they prefer to believe. My guess, though, is that if Trump had been president since 2008 he would not have done everything he could to undermine the stability in the Middle East that had finally been created. ISIS belongs to Obama and Hillary. Hillary is the last person in the world anyone should ask to fix up the mess she is largely responsible for.

I can’t hear them, but Victor Davis Hanson can. His title is A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall but his meaning is that we are on the edge of a war we are not preparing for and will be unable to fight.

Russia has been massing troops on its border with Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently believes that Europe is in utter disarray and assumes that President Obama remains most interested in apologizing to foreigners for the past evils of the United States. Putin is wagering that no tired Western power could or would stop his reabsorption of Ukraine — or the Baltic states next. Who in hip Amsterdam cares what happens to faraway Kiev?

Iran swapped American hostages for cash. An Iranian missile narrowly missed a U.S. aircraft carrier not long ago. Iranians hijacked an American boat and buzzed our warships in the Persian Gulf. There are frequent promises from Tehran to destroy either Israel, America or both. So much for the peace dividend of the “Iran deal.”

North Korea is more than just delusional. Recent nuclear tests and missile launches toward Japan suggest that North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un actually believes that he could win a war — and thereby gain even larger concessions from the West and from his Asian neighbors.

Radical Islamists likewise seem emboldened to try more attacks on the premise that Western nations will hardly respond with overwhelming power. The past weekend brought pipe bombings in Manhattan and New Jersey as well as a mass stabbing in a Minnesota mall — and American frustration.

Europe and the United States have been bewildered by huge numbers of largely young male migrants from the war-torn Middle East. Political correctness has paralyzed Western leaders from even articulating the threat, much less replying to it.

Instead, the American government appears more concerned with shutting down the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, ensuring that no administration official utters the words “Islamic terror,” and issuing warnings to Americans not to lash out due to their supposedly innate prejudices.

The last para of the article: “War clouds are gathering. A hard rain is soon going to fall.” If he’s right, we won’t have long to wait to find out.

You can see my own views of the debate at Quadrant Online which in many ways is similar to Trump’s.

Donald Trump said on “Fox & Friends” this morning that last night’s presidential debate went well, despite the fact that he was asked much tougher questions than Hillary Clinton . . . .

Trump pointed out that moderator Lester Holt pressed him on his tax returns, the President Obama birther scandal and his stance on the Iraq War.

He said that Clinton, on the other hand, was not asked about her email scandal, the Clinton Foundation or the Benghazi terror attack.

Trump said that even though it was obvious that Holt leaned “more than a little” to the left, he was satisfied with the message he got out to the American people, particularly his policies on illegal immigration, law and order, and trade.

“Those are basically the three things we’re going to have to get out. And I got them out early and strong,” Trump said. “And a lot of people think the poll numbers are going to go up because of that.”

And his poll numbers are going up with virtually every poll that is run untouched by human hands – that is, every poll not run through the media and their polling organisations – show Trump having won last night. In the end, as I point out at Quadrant, American is not electing a debating team, it is electing the person who must lead them through the next four years which may be among the most perilous in American history. Who knows what is happening, but I will end with this from a comments thread at Lucianne:

There is a truly unscientific poll going on wherever 7-11 is found…they have a sale on hot beverages in their new “thermal” extra large cups with either “Republican”, “Democrat” or a “rant” design. On the east end of Long Island (of all places) there is a shortage of Republican cups and it´s attributable to brisk sales, not someone hiding the pubbie cups. The discount to buy these cups is significant (around 33 cents with tax) but the demonrat cups aren´t selling according to a friend who´s an owner.

Granted it´s unscientific but in the past when they´ve done this you don´t see the pubbie cups selling out.

This election has a feel like the one in ´72 where no one “voted” for Nixon yet he won 49 States over McG.

The media are all-in for Hillary and it is up hill for Trump in every way, but we shall see in November, and before that we will have two more debates.

I cannot deny that I was disappointed at the end of the debate. Trump ought to have put her away with so many issues opened up for which there are answers aplenty. He went after her in the first half and drove her to the edge of the field but then let her back.

So let me think about this a bit more. First, the totally one-sided “moderating” really is irritating. The issues that will matter looking forward for the next four years do not include where Obama was really born or what Donald Trump shows on his tax form. These are not policy matters and do not much matter. What counts are the things that were not touched, such as Benghazi, her public email server which has allowed every foreign intelligence agency to read every email she sent, the open border that is not being sealed off and would not be by Clinton, her inveterate lying on everything, large and small. These were not brought into the mix by the moderator.

Second, I think Trump is conscious of the Romney experience. Romney won the first debate and then didn’t win the election. If there is anything that Trump has shown, it is that he gets his timing right. I thought he let her off the hook in a number of places which he ought to have driven a Panzer division through, but didn’t. I don’t know if it was deliberate, but on purpose or not, he will be back for the second and third events. What did Hillary learn from this? Nothing that I think can help her, while Trump learned a lot.

Third, the Trump I saw was not the Trump I believe he can be. The Trump others saw for the first time was, however, someone who does not scare the horses and had as presidential a look about him as one could wish. That Trump has won every one of the online polls asking who won the debate says something about the common expectation which he more than seems to have filled.

Fourth, Hillary’s desire to raise taxes on “the rich” and increase the minimum wage are massive disasters that would ruin the working lives of many, especially those at the bottom. Trump, on the other hand, wants to lower taxes and remove regulations on business. Hillary panders to the ignorant while Trump has a more sophisticated view of how a capitalist system works. It is not a zero-sum game in the way it is discussed by Clinton. Adding to that, his aim to re-negotiate the various trade deals, and have others contribute to the cost of their defence by the United States. These are the kinds of changes that really can make the American economy succeed. Nothing that Hillary says or has ever done, makes you think she has much of an idea how things work, other than via various forms of patronage and corruption.

In all, I wish it had been more of a win for Trump. But on this very day the electoral college for the first time rolled in his favour. He has till the start of November to build on what he has achieved, and there is no reason to think he cannot do what needs to be done. And there is always the possibility that the people who are voting understand that they are not selecting a debating team but who will lead their nation for the next four years during one of the most perilous times in its history.