Pierce, epistomology and economic theory

This is a posting by Menno Rol on the SHOE website

The heart of the epistemology of Pierce can be formulated as the claim that sticking to old beliefs is a man’s normal inclination and that this is in fact rational. In order to learn, we update old beliefs with a certain unwillingness in the face of counterevidence, facts that we stumble upon daily. The updating process runs via hypothesis making: inference to the best explanation. What counts as the best explanation depends not only on the newly encountered facts, but just as much – or even more – on our old beliefs. Again, this is rational.

Economics develops ever more into the direction of a science of information exchange – think of Levitt & Dubner’s “Freakonmics”, Constanze Binder’s “Agency, Freedom and Choice” and Frydman & Goldberg’s “Imperfect Knowledge Economics”. If this is true, then it seems that Pierce’s approach becomes ever more relevant for economists.

This may be supplemented by an earlier post:

You asked the SHOE-List about case studies on Peirce’s abductive reasoning. The following publications on Peirce’s philosophy in economics might be of interest to you, although I am not quite sure to what extent they can be considered case studies:

  • James Wible. 1998. The Economics of Science: Methodology and Epistemology as if Economics Really Mattered. Routledge. (See: Chapter 4. Also: check Index.)
  • A. W. Dyer. 1986. “Veblen on Scientific Creativity: The Influence of Charles S. Peirce” Journal of Economic Issues 20(1)
  • Altug Yalcintas. 2013. “The Problem of Epistemic Cost” American Journal of Economics and Sociology 72 (5)

How short life is when all of this is there for study if only one had the time.

History of economics comes to TV

I shall fortify myself for the ordeal but tonight at 9:30 on SBS:

John Maynard and Keynesianism – BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders examines how three extraordinary thinkers, Keynes, Hayek and Marx, helped shape the 20th century. John Maynard Keynes was the first economist to become a global celebrity. He made his name during the worst economic crisis the world had seen, the Great Depression. His theory that only government spending could kick-start a depressed economy was controversial, but recently both the US and UK governments have pumped money into their stuttering economies.

We have seen how well government spending has been at kick starting our economies but I shall look on with interest. Good to see some recognition of the importance of the history of economic thought.

Mitt Romney – the President who should have been

my political views in 2012

As the survey result showed, I had a 91% overlap with the political views of Mitt Romney, and truth to tell, I have still not recovered from the American election and the disappearance of Romney from the public stage. As discussed in my Quadrant article on Lessons for the Australian election, he would have been the perfect president for our times.

Romney was far and away the best candidate available to the Republicans. In an environment of the politics of personal destruction, there was virtually no element of his life history that could be used against him. He was conservative to an exceptional degree. He was personally warm and humane. He had a professional background that made him almost ideal in trying to find a way through the fiscal mess previous administrations had created. He would have rid the USA of Obama’s impending health care disaster while being able to work with the states to make a system of health care universally available. And on foreign policy he would have supported our Western way of life against a rising tide of totalitarian regimes of various denominations. In each of these aspects he presented a fundamental difference from Obama.

Whether the pieces can be put together again after this loss is something I very much doubt but time does heal at least some of the wounds some of the time. But a tragic outcome all the same.

So God made an entrepreneur

This is the number one Superbowl ad which extols the virtues of a farming life. But if you watch it, which is quite an extraordinary piece of craftsmanship, what it is really extolling is the ethic that applies across the board to all forms of business. There is a sentiment about farmers, perhaps, but the same as is said here could be said about anyone who is trying to keep a business together in the heart of the city. But if they ran an ad about how hard it is to make a living by employing others in a business enterprise you would not get the same response, not by a long chalk.

Ten Simple Rules for Getting Grants

Citation: Bourne PE, Chalupa LM (2006) Ten Simple Rules for Getting Grants. PLoS Comput Biol 2(2): e12. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.0020012 [Taken from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Website]

This piece follows an earlier Editorial, “Ten Simple Rules for Getting Published” [1], which has generated significant interest, is well read, and continues to generate a variety of positive comments. That Editorial was aimed at students in the early stages of a life of scientific paper writing. This interest has prompted us to try to help scientists in making the next academic career step—becoming a young principal investigator. Leo Chalupa has joined us in putting together ten simple rules for getting grants, based on our many collective years of writing both successful and unsuccessful grants. While our grant writing efforts have been aimed mainly at United States government funding agencies, we believe the rules presented here are generic, transcending funding institutions and national boundaries.

At the present time, US funding is frequently below 10% for a given grant program. Today, more than ever, we need all the help we can get in writing successful grant proposals. We hope you find these rules useful in reaching your research career goals.

Rule 1: Be Novel, but Not Too Novel

Good science begins with new and fresh ideas. The grant writing process should be a pleasure (no, we are not kidding), for it allows you to articulate those ideas to peers who have to read your grants but not necessarily your papers. Look at grant writing as an opportunity to have an impact. Feel passionate about what you are writing—if you are not passionate about the work, it is probably not a good grant and is unlikely to get funded. “Me-too” science will not get funded when funding levels are low. On the other hand, science that is too speculative will not be supported either, particularly when funds are tight—sad but true.

Rule 2: Include the Appropriate Background and Preliminary Data as Required

You need to convince reviewers that the work you propose needs to be done and that you are the best person to do it. Different granting programs require differing amounts of preliminary data. For certain programs, it can be said that the work must be essentially done before the grant is awarded, and that the funds are then used for the next phase of the research program. There is some truth in this. So where appropriate, do provide some tantalizing preliminary result, making sure to tell the reviewers what these results imply with respect to the specific aims of your proposal. In formulating the motivation for your proposal, make sure to cite all relevant work—there is nothing worse than not appropriately citing the work of a reviewer! Finally, convince the reviewer that you have the technical and scientific background to perform the work as proposed.

Rule 3: Find the Appropriate Funding Mechanism, Read the Associated Request for Applications Very Carefully, and Respond Specifically to the Request

Most funding organizations have specific staff to assist in finding funding opportunities, and most funding agencies have components of their Web sites designed to help investigators find the appropriate programs. Remember, programs want to give away money—the jobs of the program’s staff depend on it. The program staff can help you identify the best opportunities. If your grant does not fit a particular program, save your time and energy, and apply elsewhere, where there is a better programmatic fit.

Rule 4: Follow the Guidelines for Submission Very Carefully and Comply

Many funding bodies will immediately triage grants that do not comply with the guidelines—it saves the program time and money. This extends to all the onerous supporting material—budget justification, bibliographies, etc. Get them right and keep them updated for future applications. Even if it goes to review, an inappropriately formulated application may aggravate the reviewers, and will have a negative impact even if the science is sound. Length and format are the most frequent offenders.

Rule 5: Obey the Three Cs—Concise, Clear, and Complete

The grant does not have to fill the allotted page count. Your goal should be to provide a complete reckoning of what is to be done, as briefly as possible. Do not rely on supplements (which may not be allowed) or on Web sites (review may be actively discouraged since it has the potential to compromise anonymity). Specify the scope up-front and make sure it is realistic with respect to the funds requested. A common temptation for inexperienced grant writers is to propose to do too much. Such applications are usually judged as overly ambitious and consequently poorly rated.

Rule 6: Remember, Reviewers Are People, Too

Typically, reviewers will have a large number of grants to review in a short period. They will easily lose concentration and miss key points of your proposal if these are buried in an overly lengthy or difficult-to-read document. Also, more than likely, not all the reviewers will be experts in your discipline. It is a skill to capture the interest of experts and nonexperts alike. Develop that skill. Unlike a paper, a grant provides more opportunity to apply literary skills. Historical perspectives, human interest, and humor can all be used judiciously in grants to good effect. Use formatting tricks (without disobeying rule 4), for example, underlining, bolding, etc., and restate your key points as appropriate. Each section can start with a summary of the key points.

Rule 7: Timing and Internal Review Are Important

Give yourself the appropriate lead time. We all have different approaches to deadlines. Ideally, you should complete a draft, leave sufficient time to get feedback from colleagues, and then look at the grant again yourself with a fresh eye. Having a spectrum of scientific colleagues who are similar to the likely reviewer pool critique your grant is very valuable.

Rule 8: Know Your Grant Administrator at the Institution Funding Your Grant

At the end of the day, this person is your best advocate. How well you understand each other can make a difference. Many grant administrators have some measure (limited to complete) discretionary control over what they fund. The more they know and understand you and your work, the better your chances of success. Do not rely just on E-mail to get to know the grant administrator. Do not be intimidated. Talk to them on the telephone and at meetings where possible—they want to help.

Rule 9: Become a Grant Reviewer Early in Your Career

Being on review panels will help you write better grants. Understanding why grants get triaged before complete review, how a panel reacts to a grant, what the discretionary role of program officers is, and what the role of oversight councils is provide valuable lessons for writing successful grants of your own and for giving others advice about this process.

Rule 10: Accept Rejection and Deal with It Appropriately

Rejection is inevitable, even for very good grants when funding levels are low. Learn to live with rejection and to respond appropriately. Do not be defensive; address each criticism head on and respond with facts and not emotional arguments. When resubmission is necessary, make it very clear to the reviewer that you understand what was wrong the first time. Indicate precisely how you have fixed the problems. In the resubmitted application, never argue with the validity of the prior review. If the grant was close to being funded the first time around, remind the reviewers of that fact by including the previous score if appropriate, and make it crystal clear why this version is much improved.

There are no previously unrevealed secrets to grant writing presented here. Rather, it is a concise picture intended to help our early career readers take the next step. If you feel like you need more detail, take a look at Kraicer’s article [2]. Good luck on getting those grants.

Copyright: © 2006 Bourne and Chalupa. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Make the Balanced Political Reporting Provision Permanent at All Times

I see that the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Act 1983 contains a provision which more or less instructs the ABC to provide equal time to the government and the opposition when we have entered into an election period. The present question is whether we are in an election period of not. But why debate this question. We should make this a permanent obligation on any publicly financed media outlet in Australia, and not just during an official election period.

The Act as it happens is pretty clear that so far as equal time is concerned, we are definitely into that zone. Here is the key provision:

‘election period’ means:

(a) in relation to an election to the Legislative Council of Tasmania, or an ordinary election to the Legislative Assembly for the Australian Capital Territory–the period that starts 33 days before the polling day for the election and ends at the close of the poll on that day; and

(b) in relation to any other election to a Parliament–the period that starts on:

(i) the day on which the proposed polling day for the election is publicly announced; or

(ii) the day on which the writs for the election are issued;
whichever happens first, and ends at the close of the poll on the polling day for the election.

I think this provision for equal time provides the perfect answer to the problem that has beset right side parties in dealing with the ABC almost since its start. However, the ABC is not a privately owned broadcaster, it is a publicly owned, taxpayer-funded organisation. It is we the people who are the owners.

What an incoming Coalition Government must therefore do is make this provision for equal time not just a necessity during an official election period however defined but a permanent provision that must be adopted at all times and in all circumstances by any broadcaster financed more than 50% by public monies.

It may not appeal to an incoming Coalition government to provide such a forum to Labor, but truth to tell, they have it anyway. Such an amendment to the Act that covers the ABC, SBS and Radio Australia would not only appear fair and reasonable but would be. The ABC and SBS could have its Leigh Sales and George Negus to its heart’s content but they would also have to balance this with a fair dose of Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones.

And I don’t mean this as a bit of whimsy. This ought to become hard and fast Coalition policy. Not only will it be seen widely as fair and balanced, but it will actually be a major step towards protecting our democracy. There really will be open debate on all issues that is fostered by our public broadcaster.

A Government such as this one which has actively sought to reduce the media’s ability to report and criticise can have nothing to say about a provision that will insist that all sides of every policy issue are heard and debated in the public forum.

It should also be a component of this Act that the ABC, SBS and Radio Australia demonstrate in their Annual Reports exactly how it has complied with this provision, by showing that equal time has been devoted to presenting both sides of every major political question.

With ideas, demand creates its own supply

Russ Roberts at Cafe Hayek discusses the possibility that we get the economics we demand.

I suggested that we get the economics we deserve, the economics that most everyday people want to hear. I’ve often wondered why my viewpoint (or Don’s or Pete’s or Adam Smith’s or Milton Friedman’s) has such limited traction in the marketplace for ideas. We have to concede that we are not the market leaders. Interventionism, market failure, Keynesianism–they are all doing ‘better’ in the marketplace in that they dominate the best universities and much of political discourse.

There is quite a bit to that. It is also part of an ethos that says we can fix this problem so solutions that make you believe you are actually doing something useful and positive have a value. It is the action itself that is valued, not the result.

And while within the economy itself, there is an error adjustment mechanism that weeds out the unproductive and unprofitable, with ideas there is the reverse in action, where demand (for certain ideas) creates its own supply (of these ideas). The will to believe invades our texts. Eventually, maybe, reality takes command but there is no reason to think it is any kind of certainty. People die for the most metaphysical of ideas. That they won’t cling to their economic theories even though they don’t work requires an ability to change not just what we think but who we are.

Sixties nostalgia

Scott Johnson at Powerline has a quite gripping column today based on coming across a copy of Marcuse’s One Dimensional Man. He asks whether anyone reads it any more but as a coincidence perhaps, I was looking at my own copy just yesterday and thought I might give it a read for old time’s sake. A very powerful book in its time but today would hardly cause a ripple since its ideas are now absorbed into the thought processes of Presidents and Prime Ministers all across the Western world. But Scott also goes through a list of books each one of which was an important part of my own education, except for The Strawberry Statement for which I have no memory. How could I have let that one go by, but I can recall others he left out? Here is Scott’s full list:

Paul Goodman, Growing Up Absurd (published in 1960, restored to print in the NYRB Classics series, in which we learned how corporation deadened our souls).

Frantz Fanon, The Wretched of the Earth (gone but not forgotten, Fanon makes a cameo appearance in Dreams From My Father, but of course).

R.D. Laing, The Politics of Experience (mental illness is good).

Carlos Castenada, The Teachings of Don Juan: A Yaqui Way of Knowledge (the first in Castenada’s endless series of fictional sociological studies of an Indian shaman working wonders with psychedelic drugs…heavy!).

Norman O. Brown, Life Against Death: The Psychoanalytical Meaning of History (hey, it inspired Jim Morrison…the book has an interesting chapter on Jonathan Swift).

James Simon Kunen, The Strawberry Statement: Notes of a College Revolutionary (turned into a lousy movie, now a collector’s item…damn, what did I do with my copy?).

Eldridge Cleaver, Soul on Ice (sick, sick, sick, and still in print…I recall that Eric Hoffer nailed it as ‘soul on horse manure’).

There are two sorts of people on the right today, those who were once on the left and those who weren’t. It is those of us who once were who are the ones more terrified about the left because we were there and know just how much there is to fear about the kinds of people we were but thankfully no longer are. I only wish there were a lot more like us and a lot less of the others who stayed as they were then. I used to think that the world would be a better place once we were finally gone from positions of power and influence but the startling reality is that our miseducation of the generation that followed has created a monster even more awful than we were ourselves. Gillard is infinitely worse than Hawke while Obama makes me wish we had Bill Clinton back again.

And when you finish Scott Johnson’s column, you really should go onto the column by Dan Henninger that inspired it. It’s short but here is the para that matters:

The original argument for the Obama presidency was that this was a new, open-minded and liberal man intent on elevating the common good. No one believes that now. This will be a second term of imposition. As he said in the inaugural: ‘Preserving our individual freedoms ultimately requires collective action.’ That is Marcusian.

Don’t know what Marcusian means? Then I worry you may not know just what you are up against.

Post 250

We have just come back from twelve days in New Zealand where I went to shield myself from my birthday. Enjoyed the whole time especially Rotorua with the hot springs, mud baths and volcanic geology amazing. Wellington is what Canberra ought to have been had they not decided to indulge themselves in the potential of the automobile, as it was considered to be in 1913. Had they had today’s sensibilities to the internal combustion engine, they would have left out roads altogether and built everything along tram tracks and railway lines. Canberra has its features but Wellington is a more interesting place to be. Anyway, birthday over, it is now time to get back to work which in New Zealand consisted of interviewing half a dozen people about my Handbook on the Free Market Economy. It will be a fantastic book if I can pull it off but it will not be easy and will require an incredible amount of co-operation. But New Zealand – with its Fencing Wire Number 8 mentality – was the place to begin this research.