What’s united about the United States?

What a mess! The only part that unites the Democrats is that the president is no longer Donald Trump. Let them enjoy it while they can since from here on it things will only get worse. All from Lucianne.com just now.

LET ME NOW ADD THIS ONE:

Don’t Call Biden’s Plan ‘Stimulus’ — It’s Just Another Keynesian Fantasy Issues & Insights, by The Editorial Board Original Article Joe Biden’s promised stimulus is meant to boost an economy devastated by the Democrats’ national shutdown by handing out more checks and imposing a $15 national minimum wage. Sorry, it won’t work. “We must act now, and we must act decisively,” Biden said. Sounds good, but do we really? What he and Congress have proposed is an incoherent mess that will do the precise opposite of what he says it will. Even worse, it’s premised on the long-discredited idea that the government can stimulate the economy by spending more. From false premises come bad policies that will hurt many low-income

Is it really “long-discredited”? I thought it was mainstream macro. Maybe this time it will be discredited, but hope springs eternal in the socialist breast.

_______________The rest were all here before

The painful symbolism of the 26,000 National Guard Troops in D.C. American Thinker, by Andrea Widburg Original Article  Those of you who are reading this post are the type of people who pay attention to things. That’s why you already know that 26,000 National Guard troops drawn from all over America and from Puerto Rico, have assembled in Washington, D.C., in advance of Joe Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday. (That’s about three divisions worth of troops.) But have you given serious thought to what the troops’ presence means? (snip) I’m inclined to agree with Tucker Carlson’s brilliant Monday night opening monologue regarding the deeper meaning behind a massive D.C. lockdown

Joe Biden: Amnesty for Everyone Who Was Here on January 1 Breitbart Economy, by Neil Munro Original Article President-elect Joe Biden’s amnesty plan will reportedly provide the glittering prize of U.S. citizenship to everyone who can show they were in the United States illegally on January 1, if Congress passes the wage-cutting, nation-changing legislation amid a deep economic recession.“To qualify, immigrants must have been in the United States as of Jan. 1, a move meant to blunt any rush to the border,” according to a description provided “by transition officials” to the Washington Post.But the “rush to the border” is likely because migrants and the coyotes’ smuggling industry can backdate documents

Activists: Biden’s Embrace of Transgender Athletes a Blow to Women’s Rights Breitbart Sports, by Penny Starr Original Article President-Elect Joe Biden’s promise to embrace transgender ideology will likely include supporting biological men who say their gender identity is female to compete in sports against biological women. Attorneys representing transgender athletes and women athletes expect Biden’s Department of Education to reverse course in two lawsuits in Idaho and Connecticut that the Trump administration had backed to protect women’s rights. (Snip) Transgender athletes are getting an ally in the White House next week as they seek to participate as their identified gender in high school and college sports — although state legislatures, Congress and the courts are all expected to have their say this year, too.

Trump’s 1776 Commission slams schools for trying to paint the US as an ‘evil country’ with ‘distorted histories’ on slavery, defends the Founding Fathers and urges teachers to reject ‘activist propaganda’ in MLK Day report Daily Mail (UK), by Luke Kenton & Lauren Fruen * Original Article The Trump administration’s 1776 Commission has slammed what it calls ‘re-education attempts’ that re-frame the United States as ‘an evil country’ in a scathing report released on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The 45-page document blasts ‘destructive scholarship’ that the commission says misrepresents the history of slavery and racial discrimination in the nation’s schools and colleges. It also likened American liberals to the Italian fascist leader Benito Mussolini, who the commission said ‘sought to centralize power under the management of so-called experts.’ ‘States and school districts should reject any curriculum that promotes one-sided partisan opinions,

Incoming White House Climate Team Blames Systemic Racism’ for Climate Change Washington Free Beacon, by Collin Anderson Original Article A pair of top incoming White House environmental aides has blamed “systemic racism” as a driver of climate change in an attempt to justify a government-led economic overhaul.President-elect Joe Biden named progressive policy adviser Maggie Thomas as Office of Domestic Climate Policy chief of staff and climate advocate Cecilia Martinez as “senior director for environmental justice” on Thursday. Both Thomas and Martinez have cited racial inequality as perpetuating climate change, arguing that the Biden administration’s environmental policy must be centered on “racial and economic justice.”

NY Times Says We Need A Return To Trump’s Booming Economy But CNN Admits Biden Has No ‘Magic Wand’ Hot Air, by John Sexton Original Article According to the NY Times, Biden’s incoming economic team has one goal: Get back to the booming pre-Covid economy of the Trump administration: As President-elect Joseph R. Biden, Jr. prepares to take office this week, his administration and the Federal Reserve are pointed toward a singular economic goal: Get the job market back to where it was before the pandemic hit. The humming labor backdrop that existed 11 months ago — with 3.5 percent unemployment, stable or rising work force participation and steadily climbing wages — turned out to be a recipe for lifting all boats, creating economic opportunities for long-disenfranchised groups and lowering poverty rates.

Socialists can never be convinced that socialism does not work

 

Q: Why do people keep defending socialism if it had never worked before? Why do people keep defending socialism?Capitalism keeps harming them again and again if it had never worked before

A: Says who? Our socialist military defeated the fascists in WWII, in association with the Socialist Soviets. We built public schools, roads, utility grids, public water supplies, drug testing, food quality testing and many other things. They work pretty well. I was also reminded that the Inca and early Christian’s were socialists in practice, though the term was not yet in use.

___________________________________________________________

Socialists are a pretty stupid lot. The above is from Quora where you do find quite a lot of ignorant fools defending socialism as above. Does he really think the Incas were socialists? Were all of those Victorians who built public schools and roads etc socialists?

Here’s how you tell a socialist from a non-socialist in one easy lesson. A socialist believes an economy can be run like a single business, with all of the decisions made by head office, usually located in the capital city. Public works and public schools are not evidence of socialism. Central planning and the replacement of private firms by the public sector is. And most important of all, in a market economy there needs to be a price mechanism to allocate the resource base between different uses whereas among socialists they just spend the money on their favourite projects.

For a bit more on this, you might have a look at my I, Mechanical Pencil in which I explain in more detail the role of the price mechanism which can never be explained sufficiently well for those who are determined to introduce a socialist economy guaranteed to impoverish just about everyone.

I can believe it only because it’s so insane

See the additional details here: Biden says small business will receive no aid unless they’re owned by minorities, women.

Of course, women are already in a majority and after four years of Biden/Harris white men will be in a minority too. I bet that won’t count.

Of course, white male owned large business – say Facebook, Twitter and Amazon – will do really well for themselves.

Did we or did we not have a recession?

From Recession ends but not pain from the Herald Sun today. Except the question is, do these moron modern economists think we have even been in a recession since the definition is two consecutive quarters of negative growth? I’m afraid, to consult a modern economist about the nature of an economy or what to do about almost anything at all is an almost total waste of time. The economy is dead, millions of employees in the private sector are without jobs, and businesses across the country are closing down, but we were not officially in a recession. Economic theory was once of such great interest but has become a dead end for actually learning anything of value about the operation of an economy or the kinds of policies that would bring things back to life.

As for fixing things, I have been saying for a long time, just leave things alone and it will all come good over the next year. This is what I published at the AEIR on March 26, 2020: A Classical Economic Response to the Coronavirus Recession.

If ever there has been a downturn that cannot in any way be explained as a fall in demand it is the forced closures that have followed the coronavirus panic. The downturn is entirely structural in nature, even if, as is the usual case, the problem has been driven by government actions and decisions.

That is why when I hear discussions of the need for a stimulus I am even more than usual amazed at how beyond sense economic policy has become. What is needed, and what is largely being done, are measures to hold both capital and labour in place until the closures are brought to an end.

There are businesses that will open the moment the law allows. There are millions of jobs that will be immediately filled again the moment these businesses reopen, which will see their customers flooding back.

So what do we find on the business pages of The Oz today to go along with the massive quarterly growth in GDP.

Surging iron ore price lifts ASX

Property rises tipped to rise 9pc in 2021: SQM Research

Ultra-luxury property market sets new sales records through pandemic.

Meanwhile, proving how out of it a modern economist is there is also this: Shock recovery in house prices unnerves the RBA.

That would be a stunning outcome for the housing market given earlier fears of a collapse in prices as the pandemic forced the economy into lockdown, fuelling forecasts of double-digit unemployment, stalled population growth, rising mortgage defaults and even potential instability in the banking system.

They would not have a clue just as their earlier forecasts make clear they had no clue then either.

Marvellous Melbourne in the news

I don’t know that this is a mask infringement, but it has certainly been noticed. This is from our sister blogsite in Canada: They Went From “Flatten The Curve” To “Put Your Hands Behind Your Back” So Fast We Didn’t Even Notice.

Then there was this on the front page of the Hun today: Show us the money.

Plea to reveal project overruns & delays as blowouts top $6.4bn COST blowouts on 10 of Victoria’s key infrastructure projects, including the West Gate and Metro tunnels, have risen to more than $6.45bn. Concerns over delays and associated ballooning expenses on projects have prompted calls for the urgent release of detail on their progress. The information was left out of the budget for the first time in years on Tuesday, with Treasurer Tim Pallas saying the coronavirus pandemic made preparing progress reports difficult. But sources close to the government have detailed blowouts of $6.45bn on just 10 projects, including $2bn on the Metro Tunnel and $1.2bn on the West Gate Tunnel. The state budget revealed only 84 per cent of timelines on the West Gate project were met last year.

They can spend and spend and spend, but adding value and covering the costs of deficits with a projected revenue stream, that they’re not so good at.

FROM THE HERALD SUN: This is a pictorial from inside the paper to give you some idea of the massive cost blowouts Victoria is absorbing. And now they intend to add another $10 Billion to build a train to the airport. Where are the adults?

In the hands of thieves and loonies

Economic ignorance beyond the superhuman. These people are certifiably insane but we elected them. You just have to see the numbers: Victoria’s budget John Cain/Joan Kirner to a new dimension.

Victoria’s debt bill will skyrocket to $154.8bn over the next four years even as the Andrews government bets that it can avoid a third wave of COVID-19 and kickstart a rapid economic recovery. Tim Pallas’s sixth state budget reveals the sea of red caused by the coronavirus crisis, with Victoria a whopping $23.3bn in deficit as the economy shrinks by 4 per cent this year after almost three decades of uninterrupted economic growth.

They must have already sold the State to the Chinese because there is zero means for these people to fix the books and pay these debts. And do let me add this:

The budget papers also reveal Victoria’s public service wages bill has soared almost 10 per cent this year – and will blow out by $6bn over the next four years. Mr Pallas defended the massive increase in borrowing, saying it had been recommended by the Reserve Bank and the federal government, and that interest charges – averaging 4.4 per cent of revenue a year – were manageable.

I want every Victorian politician’s retirement super to be discounted by five percent a year until the deficit is gone. And if this has been endorsed by Morrison, I want to hear him say so. None of them know a thing about managing an economy.

Stealing from the poor to give to the rich

The data above is from the United States. Real wages are rising which is as good a reason for the Deep State to get rid of a president as I have ever heard. Imagine letting workers earn more which is taking money right out of the hands of the people who run projects funded by the public sector.

Government spending is in part hiring the useless to do unproductive jobs plus creating programs that soak up billions of dollars supposedly to create jobs.

And keeping interest rates as low as possible is all part of the process. The role of interest rates is to allow the market to determine which projects are the most likely to have a positive return. Near-zero interest rates allow governments to compete physical capital away from private entrepreneurs at the lowest possible cost to Treasury. This was from the RBA Governor on the fifth of November: Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision. There was a time a discussion such as this would cause a first year student to fail the course. Now it is the highest good sense in economic policy.

Wages growth remains subdued and is expected to remain at around its current rate for some time yet. A further gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. Taken together, recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.

The virtue in having higher wages growth, you see, is so it might raise the inflation rate towards its target range. Not so that wage earners might earn a higher income, but so that inflation might rise which means that any wage increase projected will come without productivity growth. Otherwise, if productivity were also rising there would be no inflation.

Moronic doesn’t quite capture it.

What my book on classical economics is actually about

This was the start of the review of my book on Classical Economic Theory and the Modern Economy provided by EH.Net to the Societies for the History of Economics online list:

This book is about how little Steven Kates thinks of the “modern economy,” an umbrella term for all variants of Keynesian economics. Bold and pretentious statements abound. “Just about the whole of modern economic theory is perniciously wrong … there is virtually nothing useful one can learn from a modern economics text in how to manage an economy” (p. 1). “Economists know nothing whatsoever about the analytical depth of the classical economists” (p. 16). Kates aims “to explain why classical economics is vastly superior” (p. 17). Kates wants to convince us that he is “almost uniquely placed” to do so, though he acknowledges “how obscure [he is] within the world of economics” and notes that “virtually no one sees things as [he does]” (p. 17). This does not prevent him from boasting about how, as chief economist of Australia’s national employers’ association, he “never made a single wrong call on the economy or the effects of public policy” (p. 20). Unfortunately, the book is filled with errors. Relevant quotes and texts are omitted or distorted for the sole purpose of justifying his anti-Keynesian narrative.

As you may see, not a positive review. He describes my discussion of  my record of accurately predicting the harmful consequences of using Keynesian policies as “boastful”, but at least it’s accurate which you would think would count for something. Because economists are so convinced that their theories are right, they never, and I mean never, go back for a post mortem to see what went wrong. And what I point to is not just failures, but also to the phenomenal success of Peter Costello’s economic management from 1996 onwards where the economy ripped along not only with zero deficits year after year but also zero debt! Anyway, I have written my book and this chap speaks for almost the entire profession in his review. At least writing for an Australian audience here at Catallaxy, there will be at least some memory of much of what I write. Also, you should go to the article at Quadrant if you would like to see not just what I wrote but also how I wrote. The difficulty in cutting through their arrogant ignorance is just how it is.

_____________My reply to the review is found below

Suppose I believe, as I do believe, that economic theory reached its highest level of analytical power in the economic theory of the mid-to-late-nineteenth century, and especially with the economic theory presented by John Stuart Mill in his Principles of Political Economy first published in 1848, how would I go about saying so? Suppose going further, I had come to believe, based on having reached this conclusion, that virtually the whole of modern economic theory is vastly inferior to economic theory of the mid-to-late nineteenth century, how exactly should I go about trying to explain what I think to others? Suppose, as in fact is actually how things have turned out, that I had concluded that a student of modern economics, who studies modern macro and micro, is by that very fact, unable to read a nineteenth century economics text and understand what it says, how should I have tried to express those thoughts to others? This was the dilemma I faced and Classical Economic Theory and the Modern Economy is how I went about trying to resolve these problems.

The sad but for me not surprising part is that it would be very difficult for a modern economist to make sense of what I am saying, as Guy Numa in the review of my book has so clearly shown. Perhaps I should not be surprised to find such a negative review of my book, but none the less I find it very disappointing. But at least I can be grateful for his undertaking the review which has highlighted a number of important points although he has has missed the central point the book was trying to make. If you would like to understand what the book is about, I can only suggest you read this brief article of mine that was published at the start of this month, by the Australian magazine Quadrant, which is titled: “What Classical Economists Knew that Modern Economists Do Not”. If you go to the link, this is how the passage from my book starts:

“# My aim in writing this book is to explain why classical economics is vastly superior to modern economic theory. And in attempting to demonstrate that this is so, I will explain how a classical economist understood the operation of the economy. But in outlining the classical approach to economic analysis, I begin with the recognition that anyone who has already been taught modern economics will be virtually incapable of understanding classical economic theory.

“# I will therefore start with a personal explanation of why I believe I am almost uniquely placed to explain classical economic theory and why it is important that we do so. It will be argued that the disappearance of classical economic theory has led to an enormous loss in our ability to understand what needs to be understood if we are to make sense of how an economy works.

“# Modern economic theory is a labyrinth. Perhaps all theory is like that. Once one enters into its precincts it becomes virtually impossible to escape other than by accident. I will therefore explain how I accidentally found my way out as a possible way to assist others to attempt to do the same.

“# And even as I begin, I will acknowledge how obscure I am within the world of economics. I have published papers and books. I have attended conferences and meetings of economic societies around the world. And in all this time, I have come across virtually no one who sees things as I do. There are a handful of others, but our numbers are trivially small. So to my story.”

Guy describes my approach as “boastful”. I think of my attitude as exasperated, since if you go to the link, you will find the lengths that I have gone to in an attempt to get these points across in the past. There have been others who have tried to do this before me, with Henry Hazlitt and W.H. Hutt the most notable. In criticising Keynesian macro, I would not describe their attitude as “boastful”. I am merely following in their tradition.

I will just emphasise that the book is not about Say’s Law although Say’s Law naturally does come into it. It is about the classical economic theory that was the core of the profession between the 1840s and its complete disappearance with the publication of The General Theory in 1936. But the following discovery of mine is for the first time acknowledged by someone else and it is important where Numa wrote: “It is true that Taylor invented the term ‘Say’s Law.’” That is, it was the American economist Fred Taylor who invented the term “Say’s Law” in the twentieth century where it became a much discussed issue mostly in the US during the 1920s and 1930s. It is Taylor’s understanding of Say’s Law that ends up being refuted in The General Theory. J.B. Say’s Law of Markets, first stated in 1803, has virtually nothing to do with Say’s Law and to bring J.B. Say into it obscures the core issues. That too is discussed in my book, along with the also unknown fact that the phrase “supply creates its own demand” is also twentieth century American having been first stated by the American economist, Harlan McCracken in 1933. The origins of The General Theory cannot in my view be properly discussed without knowing these facts.

I will close by using the same quotes from my book used in the review by Numa since these do accurately describe what the book is about: “Just about the whole of modern economic theory is perniciously wrong … there is virtually nothing useful one can learn from a modern economics text in how to manage an economy” (p. 1) and “Economists know nothing whatsoever about the analytical depth of the classical economists” (p. 16). Both of these statements, so far as I am concerned, are absolutely true. If you want to know why I think so and why it matters, you really should read the book.

US GDP growth 33.1%

AN UNSURPRISING UPDATE:

GDP Explodes 33.1% — Media Bury The Story

A few weeks ago we noted that the third-quarter GDP number was likely to be a stunner, defying the endless claims by the press that the economy will struggle to emerge from the COVID-19 lockdowns. We also warned that voters wouldn’t get the news through the mainstream press. Well, we were right on both counts.

__ Original story is below the line

It’s the sort of thing that only really interests economists since it has no personal meaning for anyone. Nevertheless, better this than the opposite. In its own way the Democrat decision not to provide a “stimulus” helped things out a bit, not that they would have known. Discussed here: U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected.

Increased consumption along with sold gains in business and residential investment as well as exports fueled the third-quarter rebound. Decreases in government spending following the expiration of the CARES Act rescue funding subtracted from GDP.

It no doubt did subtract from GDP but it also added to growth. These Keynesian measures are such misleading indicators.

In academia who would self-report anything else?

I have just received a note from a journal that my article will not be included in a forthcoming overview of one of the world’s great economists (now sadly deceased).

I am sorry to inform you that your proposal has not been selected for inclusion in the special issue. There were many excellent proposals, including some with significant overlap with yours. We have decided to go with a few more historically oriented pieces by young scholars.

The probability that someone else will be writing on Say’s Law approaches nil, but I suspect this is a form-letter sent out to everyone whose proposals were rejected. Nothing new here for me. I mention it really only to draw attention to the above chart. Economics is in the blue columns on the right, but they’re all more or less the same no matter what the discipline (although economics is a bit better than the others). These are the social sciences where you would expect this kind of outcome, but I wonder how different it would look for physics and chemistry.

The chart is from THE GEEK IN PICTURES at Powerline which has a number of equally interesting charts about the world we inhabit.