Why isn’t Keynesian theory dead, dead, dead?

obama gdp recovery v 1981

This comes via Powerline but is taken from a document put out by the Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee: The Obama Economy: a Chartbook. That 92% of American economists surveyed stated that the stimulus had lowered the unemployment rate below the level it would otherwise have been shows that 92% of American economists haven’t a clue which way is up. You really ought to look at the charts. There really is nothing left to say. Not that the American economy was doing all that well before Obama got his hands on it, but since then the decline has been unbelievable.

Yet the theory that has created this mess is still taught as the mainstream view in economics courses across the world. It’s all Keynesian aggregate demand all the time. But if you are curious about what went wrong, might I recommend you have a read of this.

It will also help to explain this, the incredible fall in median incomes.

obama economy median family income

What you are looking at here is evidence that the infrastructure that supports the American economy is crumbling. It’s not just GDP, which is a temporary measure that goes up and down, but the actual stock of capital that is falling to bits.

A study in self-delusion

This is a very long article that ultimately wore me out but even though written by someone on the left side of politics, gets to the heart of the matter. It is titled, I can tolerate anything except the outgroup and is about how we can let pass our true enemies who are really far away and reserve our greatest enmities for those who are nearby. The author, Scott Alexander, practices a very sophisticated form of self-delusion in his attack on conservative beliefs, but it is more interesting than usual. And it is nice that he at least sees some of what is wrong although will not finally grasp the point he continuously alludes to. Here is a bit of a summary:

Freud spoke of the narcissism of small differences, saying that “it is precisely communities with adjoining territories, and related to each other in other ways as well, who are engaged in constant feuds and ridiculing each other”. Nazis and German Jews. Northern Irish Protestants and Northern Irish Catholics. Hutus and Tutsis. South African whites and South African blacks. Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. Anyone in the former Yugoslavia and anyone else in the former Yugoslavia.

So what makes an outgroup? Proximity plus small differences. If you want to know who someone in former Yugoslavia hates, don’t look at the Indonesians or the Zulus or the Tibetans or anyone else distant and exotic. Find the Yugoslavian ethnicity that lives closely intermingled with them and is most conspicuously similar to them, and chances are you’ll find the one who they have eight hundred years of seething hatred toward.

But he says a good deal more. I thought this was true, although it is not at all true about me. What has alienated me from my high regard for America in the past is how it has embraced the values of the Democrats almost across the board. But I can still see what the author means:

My hunch – both the Red Tribe [Republicans] and the Blue Tribe [Democrats], for whatever reason, identify “America” with the Red Tribe. Ask people for typically “American” things, and you end up with a very Red list of characteristics – guns, religion, barbecues, American football, NASCAR, cowboys, SUVs, unrestrained capitalism.

That means the Red Tribe feels intensely patriotic about “their” country, and the Blue Tribe feels like they’re living in fortified enclaves deep in hostile territory.

Here is the conclusion:

We started by asking: millions of people are conspicuously praising every outgroup they can think of, while conspicuously condemning their own in-group. This seems contrary to what we know about social psychology. What’s up?

We noted that outgroups are rarely literally “the group most different from you”, and in fact far more likely to be groups very similar to you sharing almost all your characteristics and living in the same area.

We then noted that although liberals and conservatives live in the same area, they might as well be two totally different countries or universe as far as level of interaction were concerned.

Contra the usual idea of them being marked only by voting behavior, we described them as very different tribes with totally different cultures. You can speak of “American culture” only in the same way you can speak of “Asian culture” – that is, with a lot of interior boundaries being pushed under the rug.

The outgroup of the Red Tribe is occasionally blacks and gays and Muslims, more often the Blue Tribe.

The Blue Tribe has performed some kind of very impressive act of alchemy, and transmuted all of its outgroup hatred to the Red Tribe.

This is not surprising. Ethnic differences have proven quite tractable in the face of shared strategic aims. Even the Nazis, not known for their ethnic tolerance, were able to get all buddy-buddy with the Japanese when they had a common cause.

Research suggests Blue Tribe / Red Tribe prejudice to be much stronger than better-known types of prejudice like racism. Once the Blue Tribe was able to enlist the blacks and gays and Muslims in their ranks, they became allies of convenience who deserve to be rehabilitated with mildly condescending paeans to their virtue.

It’s a spooky article since where it leads is to the disintegration of all community feeling for those of a different political perspective. But what it most importantly means is that groups from alien cultures and far different practices and beliefs [FGM, for example] become the allies of convenience for the left, meaning there is no assimilation required and the fracturing of American society continues apace.

At the end, the conclusion is the same old same old that what is needed is more tolerance only that the tolerance should be directed at the outgroups of the left. What really needs to happen is that there is less tolerance for the ruining of American society by assuming everything everyone does is just fine and none of anyone else’s business but their own.

I am personally in virtually all of the characteristics part of the blue team but my sentiments are almost entirely red team. There is nothing I or anyone else on the conservative side of things can do to stop the ruin, but this kind of smarmy smugness about Democrat virtue and tolerance does make me smile at the self-delusions these people have.

The great discontinuity in Keynes’s economic thought

This is an extract from a note I have written to an economist in the United States whose work I have only just come upon. I am beginning to become aware of the various attempts by a number of economic schools to abandon modern neo-classical theory which, in my view anyway, mostly means trying to rediscover what the classical economists already knew. Perhaps there is more to it but so far I cannot see what. The interest in this letter, however, is in the nature of the Keynesian Revolution. I have no in-depth knowledge of Keynes’s Treatise on Money although am reasonably familiar with it. But it was published in 1930 while my interest begins in 1932 with Keynes’s discovery of demand deficiency as the explanation of recession and involuntary unemployment.

The paper I am commenting on treats Keynes’s ideas as if there had not been the great disruption at the end of 1932 when Keynes came upon Malthus’s 1820 letters to Ricardo. It was these that instantly converted him into a Keynesian theorist which he had not previously been, even though he had always sought to increase public spending to reduce unemployment during recessions. That virtually all of his contemporaries understood how thin Keynes’s arguments are is now just of historical interest and of interest to hardly anyone at all. Only by going back to those moments of transition, and by understanding what economic theory was like before 1936, is there any hope for again turning economic theory into something useful for analysing economic events. This then is what I wrote:

I would have written back straight away but Tuesdays is my heavy duty teaching day and I also didn’t want to clutter your inbox until I had read your brilliant article on Keynes. You cannot imagine how similarly we see the world and what a treat it is for me to read something like what you wrote. I will, of course, include this paper in my Anti-Keynesian Reader, but I must also beg your indulgence if I explain to you the 1932-1933 shift in Keynes’s thinking which is my speciality. I have also ordered your macroeconomics text which I am looking forward to since it came after your paper and must therefore incorporate the same ideas.

You have also made me even more aware than I was before that I have not been keeping up with the literature as well as I should. I found the scholarship of your article exhilarating and finished it at one go. I just sat down and read it and was only sorry that after thirty pages it turned out to be so short. My own excuse for not being aware of the most recent literature is that I spent the years from 1980-2004 as the Economist for the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. I therefore think that my economic interests were driven by an eclectic interest in arguments that could be used to explain economic issues from the perspective on an entrepreneur. It is why the classical economists so appealed to me since that was their aim. From the marginal revolution on, I find almost nothing of much value in framing issues, specially since post the marginal revolution economics went micro and into equilibrium analysis, both of which are utterly contrary to what I could see right before my eyes being the need to make sense of an economy in which every business decision is fraught with the uncertainty of spending tonnes of money before the outcome of each of those decisions could be known. And while I may have been feeding on the classics, nothing I ever wrote looked archaic to those to whom our submissions went. Classical economics makes perfect sense and is much more logical and insightful than the kinds of economic theory we find today.

But what started me on the trajectory I travelled was a minor issue in the National Wage Case of 1980. I was brought on to write the economic submission to our industrial relations court on behalf of employers. It was explained to me that every argument in a court of law must be controverted so I had to go through the union submission, identify each argument they had made and then explain why it was wrong. Believe me, this was the easiest task I have ever been given, but one of them was easiest of all. This was the argument that wages had to be raised as a means to stimulate demand. So I just pointed out that you could not stimulate an economy by making employers pay an extra $100 a week so that employees could then spend that extra $100 in their shops. And then, in 1982, I was reading John Stuart Mill’s Principles, for no other reason than because I was interested in what he might have to say, and came across his Four Propositions on Capital which literally, on the spot, ended my days as a Keynesian. (And now, 32 years later, I am about to finally have an article published on these four propositions.) From there, I continued reading more of Mill and found a passage in which he pointed out how ridiculous it was that people thought an economy could be driven forward by demand. And the example he gave of how ridiculous this argument is was of someone who might steal from the till of the business they are working in, go out the back door and come back in the front and spend the money, and that the more this was done, the faster the business would grow. This was so exactly my own argument that it completely dumbfounded me. And yet, it was probably not until another couple of years later that I worked out that the notions that Mill was discussing are the actual meaning of “Say’s Law”. It has been coming to terms with Say’s Law and what it meant and all of its implications that has been the pole star for all of my economic writing ever since. And so, my Free Market Economics, which is me trying to do in my own fashion right now what Mill had done in 1848.

I have tried to explain over and again that Say’s Law is the Rosetta Stone for understanding The General Theory, and is also the foundational principle for understanding how an economy works. For the second, you can read my text when it gets to you. But the first is what you have written your article about which has been in so many ways a revelation to me. My speciality is the Keynesian Revolution and know less than perhaps I ought to about The Treatise and Keynes’s original monetary theories. You have perfectly situated Keynes’s arguments for me and his original conception which fits into everything I already know and understand. It is a tour de force, and I have tried to read everything I can on the critics of Keynes. But this is what I can add to what you have written. I have, of course, published things on this but to say that it has been ignored is something of an understatement. It so badly fits the narrative others wish to promote, and truly undermines Keynes as an original thinker and an honest purveyor of ideas, that it just cannot be allowed into the canon. Perhaps, however, you will see my point.

Keynes was doing exactly what you write all the way up to the end of 1932. He was going to write a book about the Monetary Theory of Production, almost certainly along the lines you set out. Unfortunately, it was just then that he came across Malthus’s long-lost letters to Ricardo which had just been discovered by his best friend, Piero Sraffa. In updating his “Essay on Malthus” for inclusion in his Essays in Biography, he read through those letters and discovered demand deficiency, the issue of the general glut debate of the 1820s. He therefore stopped writing about the monetary theory of production and began to write about Say’s Law. And rather than requiring a form of disequilibrium analysis, he is forced by what he wishes to argue, to adopt the most rigid form of equilibrium analysis. This may seem a conundrum to others who work forward from Keynes’s previous writings, but working backwards from The General Theory as I do, it seems perfectly clear to me what he had done.

Netanyahu’s speech to the UN

Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the UN on 29 September said what needs to be said. Here’s the central point of what he said in discussing Iran:

It’s one thing to confront militant Islamists on pick-up trucks, armed with Kalashnikov rifles. It’s another thing to confront militant Islamists armed with weapons of mass destruction.

But it’s coming, and it will not just be Israel in the firing line.

Why is this story not on the front page of every paper?

But at least it’s in The New York Post, Teen girls recall horrors of ISIS captivity:

Teenage girls who escaped the brutal clutches of ISIS terrorists have recounted a harrowing nightmare of beatings, torture, rape and degradation that included being forced to watch videos of men being beheaded.

The girls, members of the persecuted Yazidi minority from northern Iraq, say they were captured and sold or given as gifts.

“We would try to make ourselves look ugly,” an escaped girl, 15, told the Global Post news service. “Some women would cry or scream or fight, but it made no difference. They were always taken anyway,”

She said they were debased so badly that death, even by suicide, was more appealing than living under ISIS’s barbaric control.

“One girl hanged herself,” the teen said. “Another tried, but the ISIS guards stopped her and beat her very badly. No one else tried after that.”

One of the young victims said she became frail and sick because her guards gave them so little to eat.

Their captors also made them watch videos of beheadings of Yazidi men.

“In some [videos] they put the heads into cooking pots,” the anguished victim recalled. “Sometimes they would stand on them. There were so many heads. And they would ask us, ‘Do you know this one?’ and laugh.”

Another teen, a 19-year-old mother said her ordeal began when she tried to flee from her village in the Sinjar region of Iraq with her husband and infant child. ISIS vehicles caught up with them and others who were running, and forced the men to lie face-down on the ground.

The rebels executed boys as young as 14, she said. She watched as her husband was shot to death.

Clinging to her only child, the mother and other women were bundled on the backs of pickup trucks and taken to a holding facility. There, they were pressured to convert to Islam and given copies of the Koran.

“There was a big hall with three floors and each floor had five or six rooms,” the 15-year-old said. “They told us if we didn’t convert to Islam they would kill all the men in our families, so we said to ourselves, ‘It’s just words. In our hearts we are still Yazidi.’ So I did it to save my brother.”

No one doubts that these stories are true. It’s just that no one cares.

Someone says that Obama lied

Of course he lied. What else is new. If they report it in The New York Times, then I would like to know about it. This, however, is from The Daily Caller:

President Barack Obama has taken a lot of flack since his Sunday night “60 Minutes” interview, in which he blamed the intelligence community for his failure to tackle the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. And that is right and proper. Because not only was his excuse of blaming us a lie, but when questioned on his lie, White House press secretary Josh Earnest doubled down with a whole new lie — both of which are easily, publicly proven false.

On Sunday, Obama said the intelligence community had underestimated the rise of ISIS, saying in an interview with CBS, “Our head of the intelligence community, Jim Clapper, has acknowledged that, I think, they underestimated what had been taking place in Syria.”

But we know that isn’t true, as nearly a dozen administration officials have testified to the threat posed by ISIS publicly over the last year.

The fact that the president chose to use the word “they” instead of “we” immediately drew condemnation from friend and foe alike, who saw it as the president’s attempt to pass the buck.

The article is by “a ranking Department of Defense official” who prefers to stay anonymous. But it’s not as if no one knows. Everyone knows, even those who deny it to your face, while the rest prefer Obama lies to conservative truth. So we go on until we are over the falls.