A bit of a rant and tirade of my own

From the most recent of Captain Capitalism’s rantings and tirades of a frustrated economist:

As I’ve aged and become more experienced, I start to realize just how much of a fraudulent study economics is. Not because economics isn’t important. Not because there isn’t some serious important issues that economics addresses. It’s not even that the secret to riches for all does lay within economics (it does and it is what ultimately drives my eternal passion for economics). But rather how the field’s self-proclaimed experts have turned it into nothing more than self-serving political bunk. It is no longer simply about the “efficient allocation of resources” or “maximizing the wealth of people” but rather idiotic concepts like the Phillips Curve, running advanced (and ultimately flawed) economic models, fretting about things like the liquidity trap, drawing idiotic foursquare games for “prisoner theory,” and the hundreds of other temporary and fleeting relationships that have been observed in the past 60 years that the economist academians trump out and treat it as if it were a real science when in reality it is a constantly changing art as it is human psychology that underpins it all.

The unfortunate fact is that economics has gone from amongst the social sciences to join the non-science of socialist religious observance. So if I may continue to quote:

If you truly want to understand (or disprove some things about) economics, I argue going backwards. I argue going outside the study. I argue applying some basic, simple logic and factual testing to see if this increasingly complex “field” even makes sense anymore or is merely a circle jerk for wanna-be mathematicians just like religion is for most clergymen.

For example, a simple question I have, is WWII the only data point the Keynesianism can point to in history where it worked? And if so, why the hell did we base the entire western world’s governance and economic policies on something so ill-tested?

Another, precisely whose brilliant idea was it that government should intervene period? Who precisely died and made you economic king giving you authority to “provide incentives” or “boost demand curves?” Since when was it the government’s and politician’s responsibility to MANAGE people? (I’ll tell you who. One sick, power-hungry, totalitarian, that’s who).

And though I am certainly very political, shouldn’t we be concerned when the likes of Krugman call Republicans racist or we start claiming that 100% purely politically moves such as “diversity” have some kind of inherent value? i.e. – why is politics allowed to enter, let alone corrupt economists and their views?

I could go on, but these simple questions are identical to the basic, logical questions we need to ask (but aren’t allowed to) of religion.

Economics once really was useful and enlightening but you’d have to go back to its golden age, from Adam Smith to John Stuart Mill. Since the mathematicians took over sometimes around the 1870s, and economics became social-physics, it has been generally downhill. I read journals now as part of my penance, but it is mostly non-answers to unimportant questions. Meanwhile, not only do politicians invent whatever economic theory they need to suit their wishes, so too do their economic advisors. Economics was once a discipline. You obeyed its rules or your economy would unravel. There is only just that last small bit of Adam Smith-John Stuart Mill left to keep our economies from completely crashing, but even that small bit is eroding fast. Economics has for the most part gone back to being Mercantilist trash.

How to have a happy marriage

The best advice on how to have a happy marriage I have ever read. Here is what I found at the core of it:

Gottman wanted to know more about how the masters created that culture of love and intimacy, and how the disasters squashed it. In a follow-up study in 1990, he designed a lab on the University of Washington campus to look like a beautiful bed and breakfast retreat. He invited 130 newlywed couples to spend the day at this retreat and watched them as they did what couples normally do on vacation: cook, clean, listen to music, eat, chat, and hang out. And Gottman made a critical discovery in this study—one that gets at the heart of why some relationships thrive while others languish.

Throughout the day, partners would make requests for connection, what Gottman calls “bids.” For example, say that the husband is a bird enthusiast and notices a goldfinch fly across the yard. He might say to his wife, “Look at that beautiful bird outside!” He’s not just commenting on the bird here: he’s requesting a response from his wife—a sign of interest or support—hoping they’ll connect, however momentarily, over the bird.

The wife now has a choice. She can respond by either “turning toward” or “turning away” from her husband, as Gottman puts it. Though the bird-bid might seem minor and silly, it can actually reveal a lot about the health of the relationship. The husband thought the bird was important enough to bring it up in conversation and the question is whether his wife recognizes and respects that.

People who turned toward their partners in the study responded by engaging the bidder, showing interest and support in the bid. Those who didn’t—those who turned away—would not respond or respond minimally and continue doing whatever they were doing, like watching TV or reading the paper. Sometimes they would respond with overt hostility, saying something like, “Stop interrupting me, I’m reading.”

These bidding interactions had profound effects on marital well-being. Couples who had divorced after a six-year follow up had “turn-toward bids” 33 percent of the time. Only three in ten of their bids for emotional connection were met with intimacy. The couples who were still together after six years had “turn-toward bids” 87 percent of the time. Nine times out of ten, they were meeting their partner’s emotional needs.

You really should read it all.

Via Instapundit

How would it look if we adjusted for the media’s hard-left bias?

Here’s a story from the US: Obama as unpopular as George W. Bush in poll.

A president of such stunning incompetence, the stupidest man in the room everywhere he goes (he doesn’t tend to deal with dills), has fallen to the same level of approval as his predecessor who tried honourably and ably to deal with the problems he met. No one mentions 911, or the meltdown of the financial system that no one could have foreseen, as shown by the fact that no one did foresee it. Even so, by the time Obama became president, all the hard work in forestalling a massive recession had been done in the same way that AQ had been put on the run.

The irresponsible free press has been a disaster for America. It is hard to see how things can get better from here.

Yet you do have to wonder about the other 49% who are uncovered in this Gallup Poll:

Fifty-one percent of the Americans who responded to a Gallup poll conducted June 5-8 said that they do not believe the phrase “is honest and trustworthy” applies to President Barack Obama.

Is that to be interpreted to mean that the remaining 49% do think that the phrase “is honest and trustworthy” does apply to the president? Those hicks, who laugh at the 0.1% of Americans who are Young Earth Creationists, are more inexplicably dull-witted than anything I have come across in years. Words fail.

The siege of Baghdad begins

Iraq crisis: Baghdad prepares for the worst as Islamist militants vow to capture the city:

Iraq is breaking up. The Kurds have taken the northern oil city of Kirkuk that they have long claimed as their capital. Sunni fundamentalist fighters vow to capture Baghdad and the Shia holy cities further south.

Government rule over the Sunni Arab heartlands of north and central Iraq is evaporating as its 900,000-strong army disintegrates. Government aircraft have fired missiles at insurgent targets in Mosul, captured by Isis on Monday, but the Iraqi army has otherwise shown no sign of launching a counter-attack.

The nine-year Shia dominance over Iraq, established after the US, Britain and other allies overthrew Saddam Hussein, may be coming to an end. The Shia may continue to hold the capital and the Shia-majority provinces further south, but they will have great difficulty in re-establishing their authority over Sunni provinces from which their army has fled.

Understanding the high dollar and rising house prices

The Australian ran an above-the-fold front page story today on Pitch to foreigners locks out locals before ‘for sale’ sign goes up. It is a pretty disturbing story, specially when it goes with this one on Our housing costs are out of whack, says IMF and this one, IMF warns over Australian house prices. Let me start with the last one:

HOUSING is less affordable in Australia than in any other country except Belgium, the International Monetary Fund says, warning that rising prices might point to an unsustainable boom.

The IMF is stepping up its analysis of housing markets around the world, having concluded that property booms and busts were implicated in two-thirds of the past 50 banking crises. “The era of benign neglect of housing booms is over,” deputy managing director Min Zhu said.

House prices, rents and incomes should, in theory, all move in tandem.

On this basis, the Australian real estate market is one of the most exposed in the world.

Let’s see if we can work out what’s happening in the property market. Back to that first story about locking out locals:

AUSTRALIAN real estate is being marketed and sold exclusively to foreign investors — including Chinese millionaires — with local buyers not even aware the properties in question are up for sale.

More than 100 real estate firms have sprung up in mainland China, exclusively selling Australian real estate — both fixed and off-the-plan — directly to wealthy Chinese investors, bypassing Australian buyers.

At the upper end of the fixed-home market, prestige Sydney property agency Simeon Manners — which says it has sold more than $100 million of Sydney property to “China’s most astute buyers and investors” — operates a sales site that cannot be accessed from within Australia.

Director Mark Manners said many of the listings on the site — sydneyluxuryproperty.com — could only be accessed from a foreign IP address and were private or off-market listings placed on behalf of owners who wanted a discreet sale to a foreign purchaser.

Even those geniuses at the IMF should be able to work out from this why Australian property prices are so high and perhaps also why the dollar is so high. Our locals are being driven out by money that is flowing into Australian property from overseas. I had a student in my class this year – it’s a graduate class so he was not young young but in his early twenties. And he was telling us about his experience in trying to arrange a loan for more than a million to buy a house. If you are trying to compete for houses with Chinese millionaires trying to park their American dollars, you will have your problems.

This is a genuine issue and it genuinely needs attention. Especially when you combine it with this from The Age a couple of days ago, Melbourne’s tiny flats would be illegal in other cities:

Melbourne is becoming a city of “super-dense” towers, packed with tiny apartments that would be banned in Hong Kong, New York and London.

A scathing report from Melbourne City Council shows some of the city’s newest developments are up to 10 times as dense as permitted by law in some of the world’s most urbanised centres.

Sydney, London and Adelaide all have rules that ban new one-bedroom apartments smaller than 50 square metres. But in Melbourne, 40 per cent of the city’s newest apartments are smaller than this.
The boom in shrinking homes is being driven by a market that satisfies the needs of overseas investors at the expense of residents, according to the Melbourne City Council’s draft housing strategy.

The report warns Victoria’s capital “is in danger of leaving a lasting legacy of poor-quality housing”, because of a lack of enforceable density or height controls.

Bang ’em up and put ’em out, specially since no one cares. They are buying off the plan, sight unseen. This lasting legacy of such poor quality housing is a catastrophe. The trouble with so many in politics is they think all investment is to the good. Their ignorance of what makes a great city great is going to leave this country with a legacy of very poor quality but high priced housing that will remain a blight for decades to come.

The crossing of the Rhine – 406 AD

This is known to history as the Barbarian Invasions:

31 December 406 is the often-repeated date of the crossing of the Rhine by a mixed group of barbarians that included Vandals, Alans and Suebi. The Rhine-crossing transgressed one of the Late Empire’s most secure limines or boundaries, a climactic moment in the decline of the Roman Empire that initiated a wave of destruction of Roman cities and the collapse of Roman civic order in northern Gaul.

More here.

The real world is not Game of Thrones

The tepid reaction, even on the conservative side of politics, to the ruin of the American state as well as the civilisation of the West, astonishes me. These events will have real world consequences. It’s not like watching Game of Thrones. There will be consequences and they will affect their very own lives for the worse. Ours as well but we don’t get to vote in the US.

What’s the matter with these people? Obama may well be a hate-filled narcissist who seeks the destruction of the United States so he, at least, is getting what he wants. As for the rest, it is beyond comprehension, but the world we know is disappearing.

History happens all the time

Here’s a cumulative list of stories from Drudge over the past couple of days. The most important: Obama Popularity Hits Low in Poll After Prisoner Exchange. He’s fallen to 44%. That is, if there were an election, he would win in a walk tomorrow. Meanwhile . . .

From the Middle East:

Washington Watches As Iraq Speeds Toward Disaster…
‘Mass beheadings’ by al-Qaeda forces in Mosul and Tikrit…
Governemt on brink of collapse…
Refugees flee tide of terror…
Turkey calls for emergency NATO meeting…
Militants Sweeping Toward Baghdad…
U.S. Embassy Prepares for Possible Evacuation…
Jihadis Become World’s Richest Terror Outfit after Looting Bank for $429 million…
SPIRAL: Al-Qaeda seizes Iraq city…
Surprise Assault…
Arms windfall for insurgents…
Jihadis Become World’s Richest Terror Outfit after Looting Bank for $429m…
Terrified residents flee…
Maliki offers weapons to citizens willing to fight…
White House Struggles With Naming Foreign Policy Achievements…

On the border.

‘FREE PASS’…
EX-BORDER AGENTS: IMMIGRANT FLOOD ‘ORCHESTRATED’…
Sheriff Likens Influx Of Illegals To Hurricane Katrina…
Arpaio Worries Of Disease Being Brought Into USA…
Illegals flagging down border patrol to gain entry…
Central American newspapers tout Obama amnesty…
DANGER: CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT AZ SHELTER…
Widespread sexual activity…
Issa: ‘Flood Going To Mean Children Dying’…
Border Agent Issues Plea for Help…
PAPER: Influx ‘threatens to transform nation’…
‘Vast swaths’ of border unprotected, cartels ‘in control’…
Homeland Security chief: ‘Problem’…
Illegals flagging down border patrol to gain entry to USA…
Central American newspapers tout Obama amnesty program…
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT AZ SHELTER…
Chicken pox, staph infection fears…
Widespread sexual activity…
Feds violating child abuse laws?
Valerie Jarrett in secret meetings with activists…
PAPER: Influx ‘threatens to transform nation’…
Homeland Security chief: ‘Problem’…

Is there perhaps at least a chance that things might change?

DC ROCKED: CANTOR LOSES PRIMARY…
SALON: Drudge and the right’s frenzied paranoia…
MAG: Immigration Reform Will Go Down With Cantor…
Todd: Children Flooding Border Sealed fate…
White House Spins: It Wasn’t Immigration…
GOP Leadership in ‘chaos’…
Meet The Candidate Who Beat Top Republican…
‘Miracle From God’…
Press Conference…
‘Tea Party’ no help…

Change? Forget it. The President to come.

HILLARY: Taliban 5 ‘Not a Threat to the United States’…
Backtracks From ‘Dead Broke’ Comments…
‘I Fully Appreciate How Hard Life Is For So Many’…
Diane Sawyer destroys on Benghazi…
POLL: Popularity slips…
CLINTONHEADS SPEND NIGHT ON STREET FOR BOOK SIGNING…
Rules: ‘NO Posed Photography With Author’…
‘Media Mutiny’ After Press Barred…
HOLDS AT #2 ON AMAZON?
PRICE SLASHED…
Outside groups go to war…
Huma back by her side…

Huma back by her side – the news just gets better and better.

As for the economy, same as ever; nothing new to report.

The latest news from the front

Here’s a story from Drudge: Obama Popularity Hits Low in Poll After Prisoner Exchange. He’s fallen to 44%. He’d win in a walk tomorrow.

From the Middle East:

SPIRAL: Al-Qaeda seizes Iraq city…
Surprise Assault…
Arms windfall for insurgents…
Jihadis Become World’s Richest Terror Outfit after Looting Bank for $429m…
Terrified residents flee…
Maliki offers weapons to citizens willing to fight…
White House Struggles With Naming Foreign Policy Achievements…

On the border.

Illegals flagging down border patrol to gain entry to USA…
Central American newspapers tout Obama amnesty program…
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT AZ SHELTER…
Chicken pox, staph infection fears…
Widespread sexual activity…
Feds violating child abuse laws?
Valerie Jarrett in secret meetings with activists…
PAPER: Influx ‘threatens to transform nation’…
Homeland Security chief: ‘Problem’…

Is there perhaps at least a chance that things might change?

DC ROCKED: CANTOR LOSES PRIMARY…
SALON: Drudge and the right’s frenzied paranoia…
MAG: Immigration Reform Will Go Down With Cantor…
Todd: Children Flooding Border Sealed fate…
White House Spins: It Wasn’t Immigration…
GOP Leadership in ‘chaos’…
Meet The Candidate Who Beat Top Republican…
‘Miracle From God’…
Press Conference…
‘Tea Party’ no help…

The President to come.

HILLARY: Taliban 5 ‘Not a Threat to the United States’…
Backtracks From ‘Dead Broke’ Comments…
‘I Fully Appreciate How Hard Life Is For So Many’…
Diane Sawyer destroys on Benghazi…
POLL: Popularity slips…
CLINTONHEADS SPEND NIGHT ON STREET FOR BOOK SIGNING…
Rules: ‘NO Posed Photography With Author’…
‘Media Mutiny’ After Press Barred…
HOLDS AT #2 ON AMAZON?
PRICE SLASHED…
Outside groups go to war…
Huma back by her side…

Huma back by her side – the news just gets better and better.

As for the economy, same as ever; nothing new to report.