Right questions wrong answers

Thomas Sowell and I have many things in common most importantly of which was that we both did our PhDs on Say’s Law and for both of us this was the subject of our first books: here’s his and this is mine. And once you understand Say’s Law, you will never again think of economics in the same way. Rather than Keynes having disproved this law, he made it unfashionable, and thus it has remained for the past three-quarters of a century. But unfashionable or not, it is the indispensable core of economic reasoning which is why its original name was the law of markets. If you want to understand how a market economy works, you must understand Say’s Law.

Anyway. Sowell has put together a column on the nomination of Janet Yellen as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve (found here) and structures his comments around her incorrigible Keynesian approach to matters economic in much the same way I did myself the other day. This is from Sowell.

The Keynesian economists have staged a political comeback during the Obama administration. Janet Yellen’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve is the crowning example of that comeback.

Ms. Yellen asks: ‘Do policy-makers have the knowledge and ability to improve macroeconomic outcomes rather than making matters worse?’ And she answers: ‘Yes.’

The former economics professor is certainly asking the right questions — and giving the wrong answers.

The amazing part of the way Thomas Sowell writes is how much he can pack into a few hundred words. If you can read what he writes and still not at least start to think that maybe, just maybe, there is something to that classical economic theory after all then you are as incorrigible as Janet Yellen and about as clueless on how to manage an economy as well.

Keynesian economics is such junk science

It’s not that Greece has forecast a budget surplus that matters but that it has forecast a return to growth and stability going forward. That’s the story in the AFR and although this is all you can see at the link, this is pretty informative as it is:

The government has presented a draft budget for next year forecasting a tenuous return to growth, offering the first real hope that Greece could emerge from a six-year recession.

Well fancy that. They cut spending with a cleaver and the next thing you know they are forecasting a return to economic growth. No riots, no blood in the streets, just a quiet reversal of fortune.

I, of course, mention it because this is such a prime example of how useless Keynesian economic theory is that it is a scandal we haven’t had a mass book burning of all our macro texts. Where besides here are you going to find anyone to explain to you why cutting spending in the midst of recession is good for growth.

Now the story does go on to say that the economy has shrunk by a quarter since 2007. But it’s not the economy that has shrunk but the measured level of GDP. Since most of that shrinkage was in public sector waste, the economy did not shrink at all but actually expanded. With each cut in non-value-adding expenditure the actual effect has been positive. Our macroeconomic data, structured around a Keynesian framework as they are, provide not only zero information about the state of the economy, they may even provide negative information, telling you that things are getting bad when they are in fact on the mend.

The unemployment rate is now going to fall from 27% to 26% which is horrific all round no matter how you look at it. But what they had was unsustainable since most of the jobs lost did not pay for themselves from their own productivity. Now jobs will have to pay their own way. It’s not as pleasant as coasting on the value adding activity of others but it is the only way to create long term growth and stability.

Keynesian economics is such junk science.

Keynesian claptrap

‘We support genuinely liberal policies based on “Austrian economics” in contrast to the Keynesian claptrap routinely espoused,’ Day explains.

This is a quote from Bob Day, Senator Elect from South Australia in today’s Australian.

He thinks of it as Austrian economics but it is much older and broader than that. It is the economics of the entire economics profession during the entire pre-Keynesian era prior to 1936 starting from about 1776. Today’s macro, as I am fond of pointing out, is a classical economic fallacy. Until 1936, the economics of Y=C+I+G was seen as an absurd fallacy, obviously and unmistakeable nonsense. Now it is universally taught at all levels of economics as the fundamental truth.

Here is the issue. Y=C+I+G means total output in the domestic economy is determined by the total of consumption (C), private investment (I) and government spending (G). And thus, so far as this model is concerned, an increase in government spending is absolutely and in every way equivalent to an increase in private investment. If a mining company develops a new mine, according to macro theory, it is identical in every way in its effect on output and employment as increased spending on school halls. This is the economics taught in every mainstream first year macro course in the world. Claptrap doesn’t even get near how idiotic it is nor how destructive.

Welcome Senator Bob Day.