Scientific method and climate change

It really does get tedious to read the various defences of the climate change hypothesis wheeled out by scientific illiterates. Take The Age today with its editorial that “The evidence is in: science gets an F”. See why we need a Minister for Science and a paid up CSIRO. The Age is concerned about this:

The rather unedifying sight of the brush-off by advisers to the government of the scientific evidence on the great challenge facing the planet: climate change.

Science, I’m afraid, is not a set of conclusions but a method of investigation. The scientific method is about demonstrating some hypothesis is possibly true by arranging a series of repeatable experiments that will allow you to reach a tentative conclusion along the lines of the evidence is consistent with this hypothesis being valid. It’s a methodology that has gone a long way in the past thousand years to changing just about everything about what we do and how we think.

I am told, for example, that water is made up of two gases, hydrogen and oxygen. It seems completely implausible to me but apparently the evidence is pretty conclusive. It seems that water can be broken down into these two gases if you know how, and can be made to appear if these two gases are brought together in a particular way. Here the science is pretty settled, although we must always keep an open mind.

In regard to climate change, however, the evidence, such as it is, has more in common with economics than making liquids out of gases. In economics we develop theories but there are no repeatable experiments. We use common sense and a review of history to piece together hypotheses about the nature of reality. We then test these by making predictions about what will happen in the future based on our theories. Oddly, and it is an oddity, almost no economist I have ever heard of has changed any opinion based on the fact that some forecast did not turn out as predicted. There are always other circumstances – those other conditions that were not controlled as the world unfolded – that they are able to conjure up that caused the outcome to be different from the prediction. So on we go with our theories near immortal based on nothing other than historic authorities who said something sometime back that happened to catch on.

Thus climate change. Where is the evidence? Every prediction of every model has now been falsified by events. Not one has predicted the way things actually turned out. I don’t expect anyone to change their mind as a result, but I do wish they would shut up about this being about accepting science. There are no repeatable experiments, just forecasts that never actually forecast correctly. More like a pseudo-science if you ask me, like astrology or reading the Tarot.

A new idea: helping the environment while not clobbering the economy

lake superior ice bergs

It’s across the front page of The Age and presumably The SMH but it is also posted at Drudge under the heading, Aussie Prime Minister seeks alliance to ‘dismantle’ Obama’s climate policy…. On Drudge it comes with an accompanying story, about icebergs on Lake Superior in June! (see the picture above). This is from the SMH, editorially assisted by myself to balance the editorial charaterisation posted by Mark Kenny as part of his story:

Tony Abbott is seeking a conservative alliance among “like-minded” countries, aiming to dismantle global moves to introduce carbon pricing, and undermine a push by [far-left] US President Barack Obama to push the case for action through forums such as the G20.

It’s not as if ruining your economies through actions to contain global warming is necessarily a left-right thing, it just turned out that way. Helping the poor by creating so many more of them is not my idea of policy genius. This is more my sort of thing:

[Mr Abbott] said it was important that policies to address output did not “clobber the economy” while not helping the environment.
The comments were immediately backed up by Canada with Mr Harper declaring there was no chance of any country acting for the planet if it involved costs to its economy.

“It’s not that we don’t seek to deal with climate change,” he said.

“We seek to deal with it in a way that enhances our ability to create jobs and growth, this is their position.

“No country is going to take actions that are going to deliberately harm jobs and growth in their country, we are just a bit more frank about that than other countries.”

The uncompromising attitude of both leaders suggests neither is inclined to yield to pressure from the US to revive the issue of climate change ahead of next years’ climate summit, nor back any international coordination such as additional regulations or a trading scheme.

Politics is politics. Icebergs in June at the start of summer but half the world is worried about global warming so you gotta say what you gotta say. But you must also do what you must also do. One more reason why bringing Labor back would be a step into the dark ages, in more ways than one.

Climate change alarmism is a belief system

I thought the role of a monarch was to stay above the fray. This is the kind of stupidity you would have thought his more politically tuned-in minders would have saved him from. Apparently not.

Prince Charles has called for an end to capitalism as we know it in order to save the planet from global warming.

In a speech to business leaders in London, the Prince said that a “fundamental transformation of global capitalism” was necessary in order to halt “dangerously accelerating climate change” that would “bring us to our own destruction”.

He called for companies to focus on “approaches that achieve lasting and meaningful returns” by protecting the environment, improving their employment practices and helping the vulnerable to develop a new “inclusive capitalism”.

But with a different perspective, and in this case from someone who understands politics in a way HRH never will, there is this, by Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, in a presentation with the title, “The Trouble With Climate Change“. And the trouble for him is that many of those who have a different view are beyond any rational discussion of this issue, something he knows from first hand experience. Here is the text:

There is something odd about the global warming debate — or the climate change debate, as we are now expected to call it, since global warming has for the time being come to a halt.

I have never shied away from controversy, nor — for example, as Chancellor — worried about being unpopular if I believed that what I was saying and doing was in the public interest.

But I have never in my life experienced the extremes of personal hostility, vituperation and vilification which I — along with other dissenters, of course — have received for my views on global warming and global warming policies.

For example, according to the Climate Change Secretary, Ed Davey, the global warming dissenters are, without exception, “wilfully ignorant” and in the view of the Prince of Wales we are “headless chickens”. Not that “dissenter” is a term they use. We are regularly referred to as “climate change deniers”, a phrase deliberately designed to echo “Holocaust denier” — as if questioning present policies and forecasts of the future is equivalent to casting malign doubt about a historical fact.

The heir to the throne and the minister are senior public figures, who watch their language. The abuse I received after appearing on the BBC’s Today programme last February was far less restrained. Both the BBC and I received an orchestrated barrage of complaints to the effect that it was an outrage that I was allowed to discuss the issue on the programme at all. And even the Science and Technology Committee of the House of Commons shamefully joined the chorus of those who seek to suppress debate.

In fact, despite having written a thoroughly documented book about global warming more than five years ago, which happily became something of a bestseller, and having founded a think tank on the subject — the Global Warming Policy Foundation — the following year, and despite frequently being invited on Today to discuss economic issues, this was the first time I had ever been asked to discuss climate change. I strongly suspect it will also be the last time.

The BBC received a well-organised deluge of complaints — some of them, inevitably, from those with a vested interest in renewable energy — accusing me, among other things, of being a geriatric retired politician and not a climate scientist, and so wholly unqualified to discuss the issue.

Perhaps, in passing, I should address the frequent accusation from those who violently object to any challenge to any aspect of the prevailing climate change doctrine, that the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s non-disclosure of the names of our donors is proof that we are a thoroughly sinister organisation and a front for the fossil fuel industry.

As I have pointed out on a number of occasions, the Foundation’s Board of Trustees decided, from the outset, that it would neither solicit nor accept any money from the energy industry or from anyone with a significant interest in the energy industry. And to those who are not-regrettably-prepared to accept my word, I would point out that among our trustees are a bishop of the Church of England, a former private secretary to the Queen, and a former head of the Civil Service. Anyone who imagines that we are all engaged in a conspiracy to lie is clearly in an advanced stage of paranoia.

The reason why we do not reveal the names of our donors, who are private citizens of a philanthropic disposition, is in fact pretty obvious. Were we to do so, they, too, would be likely to be subject to the vilification and abuse I mentioned earlier. And that is something which, understandably, they can do without.

That said, I must admit I am strongly tempted to agree that, since I am not a climate scientist, I should from now on remain silent on the subject — on the clear understanding, of course, that everyone else plays by the same rules. No more statements by Ed Davey, or indeed any other politician, including Ed Milliband, Lord Deben and Al Gore. Nothing more from the Prince of Wales, or from Lord Stern. What bliss!

But of course this is not going to happen. Nor should it; for at bottom this is not a scientific issue. That is to say, the issue is not climate change but climate change alarmism, and the hugely damaging policies that are advocated, and in some cases put in place, in its name. And alarmism is a feature not of the physical world, which is what climate scientists study, but of human behaviour; the province, in other words, of economists, historians, sociologists, psychologists and — dare I say it — politicians.

And en passant, the problem for dissenting politicians, and indeed for dissenting climate scientists for that matter, who certainly exist, is that dissent can be career-threatening. The advantage of being geriatric is that my career is behind me: there is nothing left to threaten.

But to return: the climate changes all the time, in different and unpredictable (certainly unpredicted) ways, and indeed often in different ways in different parts of the world. It always has done and no doubt it always will. The issue is whether that is a cause for alarm — and not just moderate alarm. According to the alarmists it is the greatest threat facing humankind today: far worse than any of the manifold evils we see around the globe which stem from what Pope called “man’s inhumanity to man”.

Climate change alarmism is a belief system, and needs to be evaluated as such.

It is beyond rational argument and into the realm of good and evil. We must reform capitalism, ruin our economies, devastate living standards in the name of a forecast change in global temperatures for which evidence has evaporated over the past fifteen years.

Piketty and scientific fraud

scientific method phd comics

The diagram above works just as well for climate change as it does for almost every left-of-centre political meme based on some kind of scientific conclusion. But I mention it because of Piketty and his apparently fraudulent data on income distribution. It doesn’t surprise me that hiding the decline is a universal practice on the left. But the real issue is that it should not matter.

You have to be ignorant as the day is long not to know that capitalism has made us wealthy beyond all possible expectation, even going back thirty years never mind three hundred. We now have a vast number of people who do not work because we produce at such a prodigious rate that it just doesn’t require more than about a quarter of the working population to produce enough for us to maintain a 1950s and better lifestyle for those who choose not to bother actually earning an income. In our society who hasn’t got a phone, a car, a colour TV, enough to eat, clothes to wear and a place to live. There are always people on the fringe who circumstances have dealt a bad card, but really we are beyond any issue of deprivation that had existed for the entire course of human history up until say around that same 1950s mark.

So Piketty lied. The people who line up behind the book will care about that as much as they did about Climategate. It is about power and wealth, with the facts of the case as close to a non-issue as it is possible to be. The only interesting question about wealth distribution to these people is that they would like more of our wealth distributed to themselves.

North Korea in the battle against climate change

korea arial view

This is truly beyond parody. From The Guardian, North Korea: an unlikely champion in the fight against climate change. As the story says:

North Korea’s energy security problem is well documented, revolving around four distinct challenges: supply, generation, power transmission, and secondary usage. Of these four challenges, electricity generation and transmission are the two that can be addressed through the UNFCCC.

Renewable energy may be the most appropriate vehicle for increasing generation capacity because unlike large centralised fossil-fuels, renewables can be scaled locally which reduces their up-front cost.

Just how batty are these people. From Powerline where Steve Hayward thought the story might have come from The Onion but this is so disconnected from reality that insanity comes to mind as a possible inspiration.

Mark Steyn discussing Brendan O’Neill interviewing George Brandis

A bit convoluted, but here goes. Mark Steyn has an article, Medieval Moralists, in which he quotes from an interview with George Brandis conducted by Brendan O’Neill which may be found in a posting with the heading, Free Speech Now. This is the passage Steyn has taken from that Brandis interview with O’Neill:

Brandis says he’s been a fan of free speech for ages. He reminds me that in his maiden speech to the Senate, given 14 years ago when he was first elected as senator for Queensland, he let everyone know that ‘one of my most fundamental objectives would be to protect freedom of thought and expression’. He tells me he has long been agitated by ‘the cultural tyranny of political correctness’. But there were two recent, specific things that made him realise just what a mortal threat freedom of speech faces in the modern era and that he would have to dust down his Mill, reread his Voltaire, and up the ante in his war of words against, as he puts it, the transformation of the state into ‘the arbiter of what might be thought’. The first thing was the climate-change debate; and the second is what is known down here as The Andrew Bolt Case.

He describes the climate-change debate – or non-debate, or anti-debate, to be really pedantic but also accurate – as one of the ‘great catalysing moments’ in his views about the importance of free speech. He isn’t a climate-change denier; he says he was ‘on the side of those who believed in anthropogenic global warming and who believed something ought to be done about it’. But he has nonetheless found himself ‘really shocked by the sheer authoritarianism of those who would have excluded from the debate the point of view of people who were climate-change deniers’. He describes as ‘deplorable’ the way climate change has become a gospel truth that you deny or mock at your peril, ‘where one side [has] the orthodoxy on its side and delegitimises the views of those who disagree, rather than engaging with them intellectually and showing them why they are wrong’.

He describes how Penny Wong, the Labor Party senator for South Australia and minister for climate change in the Julia Gillard government, would ‘stand up in the Senate and say “The science is settled”. In other words, “I am not even going to engage in a debate with you”. It was ignorant, it was medieval, the approach of these true believers in climate change…’

The great irony to this new ‘habit of mind’, he says, is that the eco-correct think of themselves as enlightened and their critics as ‘throwbacks’, when actually ‘they themselves are the throwbacks, because they adopt this almost theological view, this cosmology that eliminates from consideration the possibility of an alternative opinion’. The moral straitjacketing of anyone who raises a critical peep about eco-orthodoxies is part of a growing ‘new secular public morality’, he says, ‘which seeks to impose its views on others, even at the cost of political censorship’.

And as for free speech being free, if you go to the article you can find a bit of first-person experience shared by Steyn in replying to some Canadian nong, Adam Stirling, who finds it a bit tedious to hear Steyn go on about free speech:

The only reason Master Stirling can read me in a Canadian national newspaper is because Maclean’s and I fought a long, hard public battle and won it! And we’ve got seven-figure legal bills to prove it! How funny is that?

And therein lies a tale, which Steyn’s article also discusses.

UPDATE: Here is Mark Steyn again discussing The slow death of free speech. It all needs to be read but here is a bit from the middle:

I’m opposed to the notion of official ideology — not just fascism, Communism and Baathism, but the fluffier ones, too, like ‘multiculturalism’ and ‘climate change’ and ‘marriage equality’. Because the more topics you rule out of discussion — immigration, Islam, ‘gender fluidity’ — the more you delegitimise the political system. As your cynical political consultant sees it, a commitment to abolish Section 18C is more trouble than it’s worth: you’ll just spends weeks getting damned as cobwebbed racists seeking to impose a bigots’ charter when you could be moving the meter with swing voters by announcing a federal programmne of transgendered bathroom construction. But, beyond the shrunken horizons of spinmeisters, the inability to roll back something like 18C says something profound about where we’re headed: a world where real, primal, universal rights — like freedom of expression — come a distant second to the new tribalism of identity-group rights.

Even the ABC is questioning global warming

It’s not true, of course. Yet this is not my notion but is from a post at Watt’s Up with That? titled, Now even Australia’s ABC is asking questions about the new IPCC report and why Dr. Richard Tol asked his name to be removed from it. Still, this must represent progress of sorts:

Nicholas Stern is challenged by ABC’s Tony Jones on China/coal/renewables propaganda, and comes out looking very foolish indeed.

I’m not sure I’d go that far but you can see that for a change there is actually some effort made to challenge the facile nonsense that is the preserve of the GWL:

***NICHOLAS STERN: What China is doing is growing rapidly and trying to reduce the fraction of coal in its energy portfolio and it’s succeeding in doing that.

TONY JONES: Sorry, can I interrupt you there. Do you know what it is at the moment? I found it hard to actually find details of this. What is the percentage of power produced by coal?

NICHOLAS STERN: I think it’s around – you’ll have to check this Tony but I think it’s just below 60 per cent coming down from considerably above 60 per cent.
Don’t hold me on those numbers. All I can tell you is that it’s coming down pretty rapidly in China as a result of direct policy and notwithstanding a likely doubling of the economy in 10 years, that they aim, during that period, to find a peak in coal and then bring it on down thereafter…

***TONY JONES: Finally, as scientists meet in Japan to thrash out the final wording on the IPCC’s next assessment report on the impact of climate change, British economist Professor Richard Toll who was one of the lead authors, has asked for his name to be taken off the document, claiming it’s alarmist and has been changed from talking, as he says, about manageable risk to the four horsemen of the apocalypse. How much damage will his departure do to the credibility of the final report?

NICHOLAS STERN: Not much. He’s always been somebody who as argued that the damages from climate change are there but very small. He’s an outlier really and I think his departure won’t make much difference.

Meanwhile it’s Earth Hour tonight so get the Kleig lights out of storage. And re the War on the West and our way of life, I see from Instapundit that this week would have been Norman Borlaug’s 100th birthday. This quote applies to much more than just food, given these same environmentalists aim to cut back on every aspect that makes modern life pleasant:

[Most Western environmentalists] have never experienced the physical sensation of hunger. They do their lobbying from comfortable office suites in Washington or Brussels. If they lived just one month amid the misery of the developing world, as I have for 50 years, they’d be crying out for tractors and fertilizer and irrigation canals and be outraged that fashionable elitists in wealthy nations were trying to deny them these things.

And just who was Norman Borlaug? The article was written in 1997 when he was 82.

He received the Nobel in 1970, primarily for his work in reversing the food shortages that haunted India and Pakistan in the 1960s. Perhaps more than anyone else, Borlaug is responsible for the fact that throughout the postwar era, except in sub-Saharan Africa, global food production has expanded faster than the human population, averting the mass starvations that were widely predicted — for example, in the 1967 best seller Famine — 1975! The form of agriculture that Borlaug preaches may have prevented a billion deaths.

Yet although he has led one of the century’s most accomplished lives, and done so in a meritorious cause, Borlaug has never received much public recognition in the United States, where it is often said that the young lack heroes to look up to. One reason is that Borlaug’s deeds are done in nations remote from the media spotlight: the Western press covers tragedy and strife in poor countries, but has little to say about progress there. Another reason is that Borlaug’s mission — to cause the environment to produce significantly more food—has come to be seen, at least by some securely affluent commentators, as perhaps better left undone. More food sustains human population growth, which they see as antithetical to the natural world.

The Ford and Rockefeller Foundations and the World Bank, once sponsors of his work, have recently given Borlaug the cold shoulder.

We live in such dark times, Earth Hour or not.

Not all that cutting

Cut and Paste is supposed to provide an ironic take on the news. A few capsule comments with the final one adding an absurdist touch. The first place I go in The Australia. So what are we to make of these from today’s paper?

China wins rare praise from environmentalists after its rescue attempt, The New York Times, Jan 4:
THE havoc created by Chris Turney’s Antarctic expedition has since increased. The Xue Long, the Chinese ship which provided the helicopter to airlift Turney and his colleagues from the Akademik Shokalskiy to the Aurora Australis, has itself now become stuck in ice. Our friend Tracy Rogers, Turney’s colleague at the University of NSW, has been commenting on her rescue. “The Chinese captain is an incredible ambassador for his country”, she said today. She is very lucky that China, which normally incurs the wrath of the climate change lobby due to its fondness for new coal-fired power stations, has chosen the path to wealth – which includes ships and helicopters able to rescue scientists in distress – rather than a path to carbon-free enlightenment. Whatever the carbon footprint of the average Chinese person, it is a long, long way short of that of Chris Turney and his colleagues.

But good news, climate change wasn’t to blame. Chris Turney, The Guardian, Jan 4:
LET’S be clear. Us becoming locked in ice was not caused by climate change. Instead it seems to have been an aftershock of the arrival of iceberg B09B, which triggered a massive reconfiguration of sea ice in the area.

So what went wrong? Turney again:
UNLUCKILY for us, there appears to have been a mass breakout of thick, multi-year sea ice on the other side of the Mertz Glacier; years after the loss of the Mertz Glacier tongue … it was soon clear that the armadas of ice that started to appear were thick and old. Captain Igor tried to beat a path to open water but the size of the sea ice overwhelmed the Shokalskiy.

And that’s the punchline, the final word, whose ironic intent completely evades me. Maybe it was this letter to the editor that was designed to provide the bite:

IS it too much to expect climate change lobbyists to understand the difference between icebergs, which calve from glaciers that are derived from snow, and ice floes, which are irregular pieces of broken pack ice derived from sea water.

The ship of fools was not trapped by icebergs as a consequence of increased snowfalls allegedly caused by global warming. It was trapped in ice floes previously blown into the area after near record amounts of pack ice formed during the winter.

If the ship was trapped among icebergs it would be now at the bottom of the ocean with the Titanic.

Rod Burston, Kiama Downs, NSW

But what worries me is that whoever puts Cut and Paste together finds the irony in setting the record straight about how the boat became ice bound by taking Chris Turney’s side. Ha ha. There’s the answer, the size of the sea ice overwhelmed the boat and all you people laughing at Turney, the laugh is really on you.

Remember the Akademic Shokalskiy

There may yet be some redemption in this Chris Turney event. I noted that there has been no mainstream news reporting on this incredible scandal of scientific malpractice but for a change this lack of reporting is being taken note of. This one is found on Drudge and others like it are showing up. The title makes very clear what it’s about, “Frozen Out: 98% of Stories Ignore That Ice-bound Ship Was On Global Warming Mission”.

A group of climate change scientists were rescued by helicopter Jan. 2, after being stranded in the ice since Christmas morning. But the majority of the broadcast networks’ reports about the ice-locked climate researchers never mentioned climate change.

The Russian ship, Akademic Shokalskiy, was stranded in the ice while on a climate change research expedition, yet nearly 98 percent of network news reports about the stranded researchers failed to mention their mission at all. Forty out of 41 stories (97.5 percent) on the network morning and evening news shows since Dec. 25 failed to mention climate change had anything to do with the expedition.

This is no ordinary mishap amongst climate “scientists” but a full blown clown show of the most incredible proportions. They sail into a bay and are frozen in ice where Mawson had sailed in ice free a century ago. They not only disprove what they set out to show but better still, demonstrate how completely out of touch with reality they are.

Someone has to find some kind of way to remember this along the lines of “Remember the Alamo” because this is a moment that should be remembered every time one of these global warming types takes the stage.

And to add to the piling on, there is then also this, the above-the-headline linked stories from Drudge today:

NYC WINTER WARNING…
UP TO 14″ IN BOSTON…
UPDATE…
RADAR…
1,400+ flights stopped…
Cuomo Closes Highways…
Declares state of emergency…
De Blasio: ‘Stay home tonight’…
Meteorologist: ‘Exposed skin could freeze in 15 minutes’

Not to mention this just below:

Blizzard to Reach From NYC to Boston…
CHILL MAP…
USA ushers in 2014 with record-low temps…
Chicago Sees Biggest Snowfall In 15 Years…
NFL: Bitter cold coming to Green Bay on Sunday – High of four degrees…
Winnipeg deep freeze — cold as uninhabited planet…

The last one is the most interesting because Winnipeg yesterday recorded lower temperatures than those recorded on the planet Mars.

UPDATE: Here’s another report on the media cover up, this one at Hotair:

Oddly, the CNN reports seem to be missing something fairly important to understand the reason why the researchers were out in the Antarctic seas in the first place. This a tweet from John Nolte:

CNN giving the researchers stuck in the ice a lot of play. Not hearing a lot, tho, about what they were researching.

At least the word ‘climate’ appears once in their web report, although not as an explanation. It doesn’t appear at all in the CBS report. The Associated Press report similarly avoids this key data point. Scott Johnson called this expedition the ‘ship of fools,’ and perhaps that can be applied to these reports on the denouement, too.

AND YET ANOTHER: And here is an editorial from The Washington Times, “No more dead parrots: Global-warming fans spend a frozen Christmas in Antarctica”.

A look at readily available satellite imagery would have prevented the fiasco; they show an abundance of ice in the Antarctic. ‘Climate scientists’ don’t want anything to disturb their denial. They called their voyage the ‘Spirit of Mawson’ in honor of Australian explorer Sir Douglas Mawson, whose 1912 expedition to the South Pole ended in disaster as well. One of the 1912 survivors wrote a memoir called ‘The Worst Journey in the World.’ The journey hasn’t improved in the century since. Despite all the carbon dioxide emitted since, there still aren’t any sunny beaches or sweltering jungles in Antarctica.

Mr. Turney expected something better than a frozen wasteland, since he and Al Gore argue that man-made global warming is real and has been melting the polar ice caps. Mr. Turney insists his frozen ship is further evidence of global warming — that’s his story, and he’s sticking to it. According to the professor, the field of ice that trapped his ship was created by an iceberg that broke apart three years ago because of global warming. (The dog ate the paperwork.) His employer, the University of New South Wales, is doubling down, too, with another ‘study’ concluding that the earth’s temperature will rise by 4 degrees by 2100 because man insists on electric lights and the internal-combustion engine.

Wasted moments

Australia is in the midst of the greatest teaching moment on global warming possibly since this entire business began. Our team of scientists getting frost bite while frozen in, even with technologies today that did not exist a century ago when Douglas Mawson made the same journey. Yet this is not the way it is being reported, although I was pleased to see that Andrew Bolt has made it onto Powerline Picks. But the deep deep scandal, that ought to be one of the most instructive moments in this long and sad saga, is going to waste. And it is worse that I could have thought.

First there was the headline on Drudge, “‘Global Warming’ Intensifies”. So I went into the story which turned out to be from The Telegraph in London. And there, right at the start of the story, was this about Australia. But it’s not about what you might have thought:

As the planet marked its fourth hottest year on record, a study published in the journal Nature found increasing levels of carbon dioxide will lead to thinner ocean clouds and reduce their cooling impact, causing temperature rises of at least 5.6F (3C) over the course of the century.

The team of scientists said the findings show some climate models have been too ‘optimistic’ and previous estimates of a minimum temperature rise of only 2.7F (1.5C) could now be discounted. The optimistic models did not properly assess the impact of water evaporation, which sometimes rises only a short distance into the atmosphere and causes updraughts that reduce cloud cover, the study found.

‘These models have been predicting a lower climate sensitivity but we believe they’re incorrect,’ Professor Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, told The Sydney Morning Herald.

‘The net effect of [climate change] is you have less cloud cover.’

The study comes amid a controversy in Australia over claims by Maurice Newman, Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s top business adviser, who said the world had been taken “hostage to climate change madness”.

Mr Newman said the climate change establishment, led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, remained ‘intent on exploiting the masses and extracting more money’.

‘The scientific delusion, the religion behind the climate crusade, is crumbling,’ he wrote in The Australian. ‘Global temperatures have gone nowhere for 17 years… If the IPCC were your financial adviser, you would have sacked it long ago.’

Mr Newman, a former chairman of the Australian Stock Exchange, was criticised by the opposition and pilloried by scientists, who said he was expressing “flat earth” views and should be sacked.

‘His piece is a mix of common climate change myths, misinformation and ideology,’ said Professor David Karoly, from the University of Melbourne, in an article in The Sydney Morning Herald.

‘I would not choose a person who believes that the Earth is flat to advise Australian shipping or airline businesses on how to plan routes to travel around the world. It is clearly not sensible to have a person who believes that climate change science is a delusion as leader of the prime minister’s Business Advisory Council.’

Mr Abbott, who is something of a climate change sceptic, once claimed that ‘climate change is “absolute crap”,’ though he later said he accepts it is ‘real’.

Since winning a federal election last September, he has moved to scrap Labor’s tax on carbon emissions and instead proposes to address climate change by paying polluters to reduce emissions, though critics say the plan is underfunded and will not achieve its reduction targets.

The debate comes as Australia in 2013 marked its hottest year since reliable recordings began in 1910. The world’s driest continent also recorded its hottest day, hottest month, hottest winter’s day and hottest summer.

The run of warmer weather began late in 2012 and was so great that Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology last year changed its official weather forecasting map to include new colours – deep purple and pink – for areas with temperatures above 50C (122F).

So let me return to Andrew Bolt one more time. This is on Professional warmist attacks amateur sceptic for being on the take:

David Karoly’s salary depends on him being a warmist. He is Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Melbourne and a member of the Climate Change Authority.

Today he attacks sceptic Maurice Newman, the former ABC chairman and now head of the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council, who is paid not a cent to point out – correctly – that the world has not warmed as alarmists predicted and the carbon tax wouldn’t prevent it anyway. Says Karoly of Newman:

As Upton Sinclair wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”

Is Karoly at all aware of how stupid he looks?

Maybe he does and maybe he doesn’t, but to tell the truth, he could not care less.