We have the most sensible and sophisticated central bank in the world

Among the many blessings Australia has that keep the economy trundling along in spite of international devastation is our central bank. It runs the most accurate policy of any bank in the world, and has refused to follow the fashion into zero rates of interest found elsewhere. Here’s the latest news: Interest rates: RBA refuses to blink, keeping cash rate at 2pc despite IMF downgrade:

The Reserve Bank has defied mounting global economic gloom, keeping interest rates on hold for the fifth month in a row and expressing confidence in APRA’s efforts to keep a lid on ­investment lending in the frothy Sydney and Melbourne housing markets.

As the International Monetary Fund downgraded its economic growth forecasts yet again, including those for Australia, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens issued almost a carbon copy of his previous month’s monetary statement, whose tweaks if anything suggested even less desire to reduce the 2 per cent cash rate. . . .

“The available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues,” Mr Stevens said, dumping last month’s qualifier of ‘most of’ and once again pointing to the strength of the jobs market. In the only other major change from last month, Mr Stevens suggested APRA’s efforts to dampen the growth of investor housing lending were “helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market”.

The bit on the housing market even makes me think that if they were about to shift, rates would be going up. Sounds good. Low interest rates will kill you, as the US economy so clearly demonstrates, or at least it would if only there was am economic theory to explain why that was.

The views expressed here are my own

There is a very nice article in today’s Oz by Maurice Newman with the fairly accurate title, Coup takes credibility of politicians to a new low. It’s not so much politicians in general who are being dealt with but Malcolm Turnbull in particular. So it was with great interest that we find this at the end of the article:

Maurice Newman is a company director and former chair of the Australian Stock Exchange. He is the former chairman of the prime minister’s Business Advisory Council. The views expressed here are his own.

That they are the columnist’s own views was something I had always assumed up until now, but apparently wrongly. Clearly, they are not their own views unless we are told so, which with The Oz is something I now take for granted (with the honourable exceptions, other than Maurice, of Nick Cater and Henry Ergas). But to be so blatant about it does truly eat into the credibility of the paper. We are, at least in theory, supposed to assume that these are journalists who will say what they believe, come what may. You know, all that truth to power stuff.

And you know what else, given the editorial line of the paper nowadays, you can see why the column irritated them. He explains what a disaster the change has been, but then goes on to make a much more important point:

The Liberal Party coup has wider ramifications than a simple transaction swapping one leader for another. It is one more blow to the credibility of leaders and the moral compact between the ­government and the people.

It makes voters less likely to listen to pleas from government for noble sacrifices in the common good.

It suggests, absent a significant turnaround in our terms of trade, the tough decisions and long lead times needed for economic and fiscal recovery are likely to be defeated by the electoral cycle.

They will also be defeated because our new PM doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing. But he is very articulate in saying nothing much at all and taking credit for the things Tony had already put in place. As for the other things he has done, you should read the column to see why The Australian wants to wash its hands of what Maurice Newman has said.

Elite opinion as a form of stupidity

Elite opinion is so off the planet that the evidence that high IQs are a form of stupidity is becoming more evident with each passing day. The latest evidence, this from Donna Laframboise:

The closer one examines the recent climate conference co-sponsored by the UK Supreme Court, the worse it looks. I’ve previously discussed the 45-minute keynote address given by Philippe Sands, in which that law professor urged international courts to “play a role here in finally scotching” non-mainstream climate perspectives.

But the video recording of that speech includes the remarks of three other individuals. Strung together, this is among the most terrifying 90 minutes I’ve ever witnessed. The event at which Sands’ speech was delivered was chaired by sitting UK Supreme Court Justice Lord Robert Carnwath. His opening remarks demonstrate that activist scientists have been joined by activist judges.

It isn’t possible to listen to Lord Carnwath’s remarks and conclude that, where the climate debate is concerned, he’s keeping an open mind. At the 5-minute, 12-second mark on the video he says the climate law conference was his idea.

You can watch the video at the link if you can bear it. Meanwhile, also from the UK, but this time with the focus on the Governor of the Bank of England:

Mark Carney’s warning that investors face “potentially huge” losses from their “stranded” coal, oil and gas assets has riled many in the investment community who believe the Bank of England governor has spoken out of turn. The chief investment officer of a large UK pension fund, who requested anonymity, agreed: “Mr Carney should stick to his mandate. Carbon policy is a matter for politics and government legislation, not the Bank of England.” Other investors also expressed scepticism about the stranded-assets theory, as well as the extent and the immediacy of the risks underlined by Mr Carney. –Madison Marriage and Richard Stovin-Bradford, Financial Times, 5 October 2015

Mark Carney believes that fossil fuels will soon become stranded assets, as the world will fall for the global warming scam and stop using them. Apparently, nobody told the Chinese! According to the IEA, they have been busy buying up all the global oil and gas assets they can get their hands on, and, as of last November, control 7% of worldwide crude oil output. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 4 October 2015

Mark Carney, with wind turbine nailed to his forehead, has decided he doesn’t like hydrocarbons. Coal, gas and oil. He thinks we should probably leave one third of the world’s reserves of hydrocarbons right there where they are, in the ground. Leave it where it is and invest in what are euphemistically called renewables, which contribute 1% of the world’s energy needs. Right-ho, Mark — that’s the entire basis of the western economic system well and truly buggered, then. Hell, who’d have thought it: a banker doing his best to wreck the economy as a consequence of a latterly acquired arrogance. Nah. That’s never happened before, has it. –Rod Liddle, The Sunday Times, 4 October 2015

Geologically, the United States does not stand out in terms of shale resources. A very incomplete global mapping suggests a US shale oil share of no more than 17% of a huge geological wealth, widely geographically spread. Given the mainly non-proprietary shale technology and the many advantages accruing to the producing nations, it is inevitable that the revolution will spread beyond the United States. The global spread of these revolutions and the ensuing price weakness that we envisage for the coming two decades will, on balance, provide a great advantage both to the oil industry and to the world economy at large. The efforts to develop renewables for the purpose of climate stabilisation will become more costly, requiring greater subsidies, in consequence of lower oil prices. –Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki, The Conversation, 5 October 2015

The 20 climate scientists and academics who sent a letter to President Barack Obama asking him to prosecute global warming skeptics may be in big trouble. A congressional committee is now looking into the government-backed nonprofit that circulated the letter, demanding they turn over “all e-mail, electronic documents, and data created since January 1, 2009.” The group has one week to respond in writing to the committee’s request. It seems like IGES’s effort to get Obama to prosecute global warming skeptics has completely backfired in the two weeks since their letter to the administration was published online. IGES has since taken down the letter and put up a message claiming the letter was “inadvertently posted” online. –Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller News Foundation, 2 October 2015

We know there is more carbon in the atmosphere, and we know there is a theory that says more carbon in the atmosphere leads to a rise in temperature. The only problem so far is that temperatures are not rising. Obviously a mere detail to people whose lives would never be disrupted by massive increases in the cost of energy, in the same way their lives will never be disturbed by a million refugees across Europe. So when I think of this:

WinstonChurchill_DemocracyQuote

I think that’s all very well, but for someone who has spoken to his fair share of Members of Parliament, my version would be:

The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with an elected politician.

Ah yes, the worst system except for all the others that have been tried from time to time. But it is the same kind of elite opinion that today worries about climate change that once upon a time had Neville Chamberlain congratulating himself for achieving Peace in Our Time in 1938. Democracy at least has the benefit of making the majority complicit in their own downfall. Not much of a compensation, but it is something.

News balance in the modern media

Well, there is this:

ISIS blows up ancient Arch of Triumph in Palmyra…

And then there’s this:

Violence intensifies in Jerusalem, West Bank, raising security concerns…
‘Back on the brink’…
Palestinians barred from Old City…
Netanyahu: ‘In fight to death’…
Three weeks of unrest…

And there is this as well:

Russia Intensifies Syria Bombing…
Assad forsees success…
Washington and Moscow can’t agree on definition of ‘terrorist’…
US Aims to Put More Pressure on ISIS in Syria…
PAPER: Putin sees Obama coolness as weakness…

And then, of course, there is the invasion of Europe:

Germany faces logistical nightmare as refugee inflows hit record

A logistical nightmare! It’s all just about transportation. From the story:

At the center in Berlin, asylum seekers, some of whom are sleeping outside, say they have been waiting as long as 25 days to register. With winter looming, the same frustrating delays are occurring in other cities across Germany.

“The biggest problem at the moment is the initial registration of people and providing them with the basics – that’s not working well in an awful lot of places,” said Rebecca Kilian-Mason, who runs a project in Munich that informs migrants about the asylum process in Germany.

The long waits to register are at the top of a list of problems that German authorities are wrestling with.

I guess once they are all registered the problems will come to an end.

Politics abhors a vacuum

The Leaders’ debates next year will be quite interesting. Here is Labor under the headline, Terror shooting: radical groups ‘prey on teens like pedophiles’:

Bill Shorten has condemned organisations that incite “criminal thinking” in vulnerable young people, comparing them to pedophiles who prey on Australia’s youth.

The Opposition Leader said he had “no time for organisations fermenting dangerous” ideas amid reports the 15-year-old who shot dead a police employee in Sydney on Friday attended the Parramatta Mosque before the murder, including for a service associated with the controversial political group Hizb-ut-Tahrir.

Farhad Khalil ­Mohammad Jabar is believed to have been radicalised through worshippers he met at the mosque where other teenagers are known to have sympathies for the terrorist group Islamic State.

Asked about the reports and if the government needed to take a new approach to this type of violent behaviour, Mr Shorten said: “If there are organisations in this country preying upon vulnerable young people, filling their heads full of murderous crazy nonsense, then those organisations are breaching their social contract with the Australian people.

Here are the New Libs via Greg Sheridan, who obviously has now also received the memo from central command to be nice to Malcolm:

Malcolm Turnbull has passed his first test as a national security leader after the shocking terrorist murder outside the police centre at Sydney’s Parramatta.

The essence of Turnbull’s wisdom here has been balance.

He has said essentially three things. The first, this is a shocking, cold-blooded murder and our thoughts and prayers are with the victim’s family and the NSW Police Service.

Second, this is an act of terrorism.

Third, no one should attrib­ute guilt by association for this terrible act to the Muslim community or to any other Muslims individually. The need for dialogue with the Muslim community is not only to maintain social cohesion but also to help in ­efforts to counter the radicalis­ation of young people. Each ­element of these messages was necessary. To miss any one would have been to unbalance the response.

Turnbull’s response has won appreciation and support from each of the relevant audiences: the public generally, NSW police, security agencies and leaders of Muslim communities.

Turnbull’s government signalled in its earliest days that it was going to change the tone of the rhetoric it used in relation to terrorism.

No one could doubt Tony ­Abbott’s abundant goodwill in this area, but his rhetoric had become a little clunky, the constant repetition of the phrase “the death cult” was off-putting and some Muslim community leaders felt he had been a bit rough with them, in particular
in his remark he wished more Muslim leaders would say Islam was a religion of peace and mean it.

In any event, numbers of otherwise moderate and mainstream Muslim leaders felt alienated and some degree of co-operation had declined.

UPDATE: From Tim Blair. If I didn’t know this was never something to make jokes about, I would assume this was satire of a very dark kind.

Malcolm Turnbull’s more conciliatory approach to the Muslim community doesn’t seem to be working:

The teenage gunman who executed a NSW Police Force employee has been lauded as a “hero of the Islamic people” on a tribute page set up on social media …

A Facebook page has since been established in the North Parramatta teen’s memory, labelling him the “hero of Parramatta”.

“Hero of the Islamic peoples he will be gratly (sic),” one post read.

“Death to the evil police state of Australia who killed this young child all he is guilty of was being muslim!!”

A photo of Farhad’s face with a screen grab of footage captured outside the police HQ of him holding his gun above his head is accompanied by the statement: “Inshallah we will kill all the infidels”.

Another post states: “It is no secret that Australia seeks to destroy islam and there is no choice for followers of allah but to defend themselves.”

I’m not sure, but this might qualify as some of that divisive rhetoric Mark Kenny is always crying about. And check the line from Nick Kaldas:

Asked about the page, NSW Police Deputy Commissioner Nick Kaldas said it was disappointing.

“Just as disappointing as the right-wing extremist material,” he said.

Sure, Nick. Because right-wing extremists always rejoice online when one of them murders a police employee.

I’m calm, why shouldn’t I be calm?

Here is a weird one that needs explanation, from The Oz today:

Sydney shooting: Malcolm Turnbull urges calm, condemns attack

This is how the story begins:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull condemned the “cold-blooded murder” of Curtis Cheng and said it appears to be an act of terrorism.

Mr Cheng was killed outside NSW Police headquarters yesterday by a 15-year-old boy, who was then shot dead by police.

Witnesses say the attacker yelled “Allah, Allah” after the shooting.

“It is a shocking crime. It was a cold-blooded murder, targeting the NSW Police Service,” Mr Turnbull said.

“It was doubly shocking because it was perpetrated by a 15-year-old boy and it underlines the importance of families, communities, leaders being very aware of whether young people are becoming radicalised.

“It is also important that to remember that the Australian Muslim community will be especially appalled and shocked by this.

Well, some may be shocked and appalled, but not necessarily all. This was also in the very same paper under the heading, Extremist Muslim group to hold workshops at Deakin University. This is the story in full:

An extremist Muslim group will hold workshops at Melbourne’s Deakin University this weekend based on the teachings of Islamic scholars who have recommended the death penalty for homosexuals and apostates, promoted terrorism and preached hatred of Jews and Christians and violence against women.

The Islamic Research and Educational Academy, which earlier this year held a conference at which children as young as five were encouraged to dress up as radical clerics and read controversial sermons and passages from the Koran, has sent text messages to supporters advertising the da’wah workshops as being based on the teachings of “legendary” scholars Zakir Naik and Ahmed Deedat.

Dubbed “The Art of Da’wah” and hosted by the ultraconservative Salafist organisation’s president Waseem Razvi, the workshops, to be held at Deakin’s Burwood campus, promise to use the teachings of Dr Naik and Sheik Deedat to help attendees “learn the art and gain the confidence to talk about Islam to anyone, anywhere and at any time”.

In Islamic theology, the purpose of da’wah is to invite Muslims and non-Muslims to understand the worship of Allah.

Indian “televangelist” Dr Naik has been banned from countries including Britain, Canada and parts of India for his rhetorical support for terrorist leader Osama bin Laden.

He has recommended capital punishment for homosexuals and apostates and has been quoted saying “every Muslim should be a terrorist” and asserting men’s “rights” to beat their wives, as long as they do it lightly, so as not to leave a mark.

Sheik Deedat, who died in 2005, was a South African Muslim missionary of Indian descent whose books have been banned from sale in France since 1994 for being “violently anti-Western, anti-Semitic and inciting to racial hate.”

His da’wah centre was heavily financed by the bin Laden family and Deedat praised Osama bin Laden after meeting him.

Deakin corporate communications director Sarah Dolan yesterday said there were no clear grounds to cancel the event at the last minute.

“Nevertheless, we will closely watch how the group represent and conduct themselves,” she said.

“As a university we are committed to the fair and open ­exchange of ideas, but we draw the line not just at anyone promoting or justifying violent extremism but also at any malicious expression of exclusivism intended to encourage people to view others in a way that is disrespectful or hateful.”

Chair in Global Islamic Politics at Deakin Greg Barton said he agreed with the university’s decision, but provisos were certainly necessary.

“When it comes to Zakir Naik, there are reasons to be concerned,” Professor Barton said. “The questions around this event will be who is speaking and what line they take.

“In Australia at the moment we face a very serious struggle with ­violent extremist being recruited from our suburbs, and even from our tertiary institutions, and we have to be wise about how we ­engage. If we simply close the doors on everything, that can support the extremists’ rhetoric.

Neither Mr Razvi nor the ­Islamic academy’s spokeswoman returned calls from The Weekend Australian’ yesterday.

It’s not the lack of spending – it’s the lack of value adding

Exhibit A in what is wrong with Keynesian economics, in fact all modern macro, has been the United States. This is the main headline at Drudge that comes with the picture:

frowny face

JOBS DRY UP

Here are the sub-heads that spell out the disaster:

Record 94,610,000 Americans Not in Labor Force…
Participation Rate Lowest Since 1977…
Record 56,647,000 Women Not Working…
‘Payrolls Disaster’…
‘Fed never going to raise rates’…
IT’S UGLY!
FLASHBACK: IT’S GOING TO BE GREAT…
Markets at ‘panic levels’…

You elect a socialist who thinks he can direct the economy, keeps interest rates well below equilibrium, promotes crony capitalists at the expense of genuine competition, and makes war on cheap forms of energy and this is what you get. But what truly gets to me is that Samuelson-clone economic theory cannot be eliminated from policy and from the minds of the majority of economists. If they still think you can make an economy grow from the demand side after all of this, I don’t know what it would take to get them to see just how wrong modern economic theory is. It’s not the lack of spending. It’s the lack of value adding. If they cannot tell the difference, they should go back and read Adam Smith and J.S. Mill.

How not to start a party

It is depressing to read the Manifesto of the Australian Liberty Alliance. The one step Australians will never take is to build a party allegiance around opposition to the religious beliefs of others. Not only will they not do this, they are right not to do this. Once they ALA put the following into their Manifesto, they killed the party as dead as it could possibly be.

3. Stop the Islamisation of Australia

Islam is not merely a religion, it is a totalitarian ideology with global aspirations. Islam uses the religious element as a means to project itself onto non-Islamic societies, which is manifest in the historical and ongoing expansion of Islam. A multitude of groups, movements and multi-national organisations are actively pursuing this agenda globally, including in Australia. These organisations differ in their strategies, tactical approach and their message, but the common denominator is the desire to promote Islam and project Islam’s societal model of a divinely ordained theocracy across the world.

Islam does not accept the separation of religion from state, but seeks dominance over all aspects of human life and society. Whereas we see religion as part of life, Islam sees life as part of the religion. This is not ‘Islamism’ or a minority view by extremists, this is basic Islamic doctrine. While only a small number of Muslims actively pursue this agenda, Islam’s divine law makes it the duty of all Muslims to contribute to this effort according to their abilities. No other religious ideology in our time has both the doctrinal aspiration as well as the economic and demographic muscle to impose itself globally.

It is our core policy that all attempts to impose Islam’s theocracy and Sharia law on our liberal society must be stopped by democratic means, before the demographic, economic and socio-political realities make a peaceful solution impossible. Australian Liberty Alliance will seek to enact the policy proposals outlined in the white paper “Practical Steps to Stop Islamisation”, published by Q Society of Australia Inc in February 2014.

These proposals include a 10-year moratorium on all resident visa categories for applicants from member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Exceptions shall apply to the humanitarian intake of persecuted non-Islamic minorities from OIC countries.

Further, we will require for accredited Islamic organisations in Australia to formally accept the supremacy of Australian law and universal human rights over Islamic doctrine and Sharia law. For example full face coverings in public spaces shall be prohibited.

We will seek to prevent the implementation of any aspect of Sharia finance, Sharia courts and the influence of local or foreign Sharia councils over Australian institutions, our economic system and our supply chain. Among the proposed measures is the mandatory labelling of products and services from companies that have taken out halal certification, the implementation of the ‘user pays’ principle for halal certification schemes and an end to religious discrimination in Australia’s secular organisations.

A manifesto that promotes an open and tolerant society, one in which all are welcome to practise their religion within the confines of a democratic and free constitution, would have potential. This, however, has none at all and will go nowhere.

You can’t tell the players without a program

syria competing goals

This is the story as I understand it, but really I don’t understand it at all. Russia, it seems, attacked America’s anti-Assad allies in Syria who are themselves enemies of ISIS but are also the remaining forces of al Qaeda! The US can do nothing to defend its allies, not that they should be its allies, but is in any case without any genuine ability to enforce its will. The diagram above from The Wall Street Journal provides a rough guide to the various major parties and what they are seeking out of the conflict. Meanwhile Europe is submerged in new migrants from alien cultures which has changed Europe forever.

The American reaction is all spelled out here: US urges Russians to focus airstrikes on Islamic State. But in the midst of it, there is a sentence that highlights to me, and probably others, the profound lack of seriousness in American foreign policy:

“We are not yet where we need to be to guarantee the safety and security” of those carrying out the airstrikes, Kerry said, “and that is the discussion that is taking place today,” referring to the US-Russia military talks. “And it will take place even more so over the course of the next few days depending on the outcome today.”

“It’s a way of making sure that planes aren’t going to be shooting at each other and making things worse,” the secretary said in an interview late Thursday on CBS’ “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”

Colbert is the replacement for Jon Stewart on Comedy Central. You cannot parody these people and satire is now impossible.