Abbott’s problem was to be ahead of his time

Since the terrorist attacks in Paris, the rest of the world has caught up with what Tony understood from the start. This is from Andrew Bolt on Turnbull should apologise to Abbott. Or is the US now guilty of “machismo”, too?.

Tony Abbott suggested:

Preferably with Sunni states such as Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, as well as with the US, Britain and France, Australia should be prepared to contribute more to a military campaign to destroy this terrorist caliphate on the ground in Syria and Iraq. This could involve less restrictive targeting rules for airstrikes and the deployment of special forces on the ground in support of local forces, similar to the 2001 campaign where the Northern Alliance defeated the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Julie Bishop misrepresented:

As Tony Abbott well knows, Australia does not act unilaterally. We need legal basis under international law to send our forces into other countries.

Malcolm Turnbull rejected:

Yesterday Turnbull was seen to be giving his predecessor a “slap down” in his national security address to parliament suggesting there was no room for “gestures or machismo” and ridiculed any idea of a “unilateral” Australian invasion of Syria or a “Western-led invasion”….

Even as Turnbull said the response to the Paris terror attacks “must be as clear eyed and strategic”, it was “not a time for gestures or machismo” and there was no support “for a large US-led Western army to attempt to conquer ISIL” in Iraq or Syria, the outrage grew that he was putting up a “straw man” argument against Abbott.

The US now accepts:

The United States is deploying ‘specialised’ troops in Iraq to fight the Islamic State group, including by leading raids against the jihadists over the border in Syria, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter says.

Speaking to the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, the Pentagon chief said that a ‘specialised expeditionary targeting force’ was being deployed in Iraq to help Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces battle IS….

He said the special forces would also be able to intervene in neighbouring Syria, where Washington has already announced it is sending about 50 special operations troops.

‘These special operators will over time be able to conduct raids, free hostages, gather intelligence, and capture ISIL leaders,’ he said.

Malcolm Turnbull’s response? The response of the journalists who joined Turnbull in smashing Abbott’s suggestion?

Abbott attacks Bishop

The saga more than continues but is becoming explosive. The SMH story on the secret conversation of February 8 between Malcolm, Julie and Scott has now got Abbott truly riled. Abbott will let a lot go by but he is old school on this and will not tolerate out and out lying. He was always certain to be angry about what had been done, but this smug leaking of a story – almost certainly by Malcolm himself – that must absolutely have remained subterranean if the tensions were to ebb away must have been the last straw. This from the SMH: Tony Abbott unleashes public attack on Julie Bishop, accusing her of telling falsehoods. Only someone as politically stupid as Turnbull would allow such a potential firestorm to break out. Only he can be the source of the story that has riled Abbott and no doubt many others. He always wants to show how much smarter he is than everyone else. So this is where we now are at.

Tony Abbott has unleashed a public attack on his former deputy, Julie Bishop, to accuse her of telling falsehoods.

In a new outbreak of recriminations over the leadership coup, Mr Abbott has made a four-point repudiation of the Foreign Affairs Minister and deputy Liberal leader.

The former prime minister told Fairfax Media it was “false” that Ms Bishop had warned him of a phone call where Malcolm Turnbull was making plans for a post-Abbott government seven months before he challenged for the leadership.

The call was a clear sign that Mr Turnbull, then communications minister, was considering a leadership strike against Mr Abbott.

In the February 8 call, Mr Turnbull offered Scott Morrison the treasurer’s post in a future Turnbull government, as disclosed by Fairfax Media’s Shirtfronted series this week.

Ms Bishop was in the same room as Mr Turnbull at the time, a silent participant in the call. The three continued to serve in the Abbott cabinet for another seven months and six days.
When Ms Bishop was asked on Channel Nine on Tuesday whether she had told Mr Abbott about the call, she responded: “Of course, of course.”

But Mr Abbott said: “The claim that Julie Bishop made on Channel Nine that she told me about the conversation between Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison that she witnessed is false.”

On a second point, Mr Abbott said it was not true that Ms Bishop had urged him to appoint two more women to his first cabinet.

In part two of Fairfax’s Shirtfronted, Ms Bishop is said to have suggested that Marise Payne and Sussan Ley be appointed to the cabinet, but met opposition from Mr Abbott’s then chief of staff, Peta Credlin, during a leadership dinner at Canberra’s Ottoman restaurant soon after winning power.

But Mr Abbott told Fairfax Media: “The suggestion that Julie Bishop lobbied me to get Marise Payne and Sussan Ley into cabinet in September 2013 is false. The suggestion that Peta Credlin opposed that is also false.”

Mr Abbott also took issue with two more of Ms Bishop’s comments on Channel Nine.

He challenged her remark that his cabinet had held firm during the first and unsuccessful leadership spill in February.

Ms Bishop had said: “The cabinet held absolutely firm and 39 people voted for the spill, even though there was no leadership contender,” Ms Bishop said.
“Tony Abbott then said that he wanted six months to turn things around and when the next spill motion came, 54 members of the party voted for a new leader. That’s how I saw the situation,” she said.

“I certainly was not aware of white-anting, although I’m sure that the former prime minister has a number of concerns about what went on in those last six months of his time as prime minister.”
Mr Abbott said: “Julie Bishop’s claim that the cabinet was solidly behind me was rendered ridiculous by the leaking that so obviously took place.”

Most conspicuous was Fairfax Media’s coverage of a cabinet revolt over Mr Abbott’s proposed changes to citizenship laws.

Ms Bishop said that Mr Abbott was mistaken to have said that he’d been “white-anted” from within.

She said the former prime minister was undone by his own performance as leader.

Mr Abbott rejected this too: “If that’s true, why has the government not changed any of its key policies?”

Finally, Mr Abbott rejected the general proposition that he might have saved his prime ministership if he’d removed the controversial Ms Credlin and his treasurer, Joe Hockey.

“The idea that Malcolm Turnbull would have been content to remain a minister if only I’d sacked Credlin and Hockey is fatuous.”

Malcolm is not the man to heal this breach.

Who do you trust?

This from the SMH: Loyalty, power and the plan to replace a PM.

Malcolm Turnbull offered Scott Morrison the position of treasurer in a Turnbull government in February, seven months before Tony Abbott was removed as prime minister.

It was the day before the first and unsuccessful spill motion against Mr Abbott, in a phone call with Julie Bishop as a silent participant, according to multiple informed sources. . . .

The call took place when Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop happened to be at the same fundraising event in a private home in the Sydney suburb of Woollahra on Sunday, February 8. They repaired to a quiet room and closed the door for privacy.

Mr Turnbull phoned Mr Morrison, who was in his car driving to Canberra for the spill the next day. The phones at both ends of the call were switched to speaker-phone.

“Multiple informed sources”, were they? So let us see who could have known about this private conversation between Malcolm, Julie and Scott? Why it would be Malcolm, Julie and Scott.

And who come out looking like weaselly and duplicitous, or in other words, who would not have wanted to see this story in the press? Why none other than Julie and Scott. And who had ambitions to lead the party, as a kind of heir to Tony on the conservative side? Here we are down to Scott alone, who since becoming Treasurer and Shadow Minister for Middle Easter Affairs (Frydenberg Division), has done nothing but turn off those of us who still hold Tony in high esteem.

And in whose interests is all this leaking and story telling? I’ll have to think about it and will get back as soon as I can work it out. Whoever it is, must have irritated the others to an incredible extent. At least we can rule out Malcolm because how crazy would you have to be to start leaking against a government you lead.

Malcolm and the economy

The way to achieve growth is to encourage the private sector: lower taxes, less regulation and a cut to spending. Three stories, each highlighting how bizarre economic policy now is. First this: Budget cash to back innovation push.

Malcolm Turnbull’s sweeping innov­ation strategy will hit the budget bottom line as the package of more than 30 reforms, including new spending measures, will not be matched with savings.

The Prime Minister, who has told Industry Minister Christopher Pyne to “release his inner revolutionary” in setting the new innovation agenda, is understood to have ordered Treasury officials to prepare “second-round effects” modelling to demonstrate the long-term benefits of the reform package, despite the anticipated short-term hit to the budget.

And then on the matter of savings, we have this: Cutbacks eyed for superannuation tax breaks.

Tax breaks on superannuation could be scaled back to help fund income tax cuts for workers, under ideas Scott Morrison will air today in a bid to ignite a debate over the best way to use concessions worth billions of dollars.

The Treasurer will also raise the prospect of easing some of the rules that prevent people from building up their nest eggs, acknowledging that caps on their contributions can make it impossible to save all they need for a comfortable old age.

But Mr Morrison will use a major speech today to warn that super must not be turned into ­“estate-planning vehicles” for the wealthy to exploit the tax-free ­nature of the funds in retirement.

The suggestions widen the tax reform debate, as the government examines options that range from an increase in the GST to a “progressive” scale of super tax rates that could recoup as much as $6 billion a year in revenue.

And we should not neglect this either: Turnbull’s NBN deficiencies exposed by $800 million Optus debacle.

Leaked documents, which show that the company building the government’s national broadband network could be up for $375 million in repairs and upgrades of a key part of its multi-technology-mix (MTM) pose serious questions about the wisdom of the government in tearing up Labor’s fibre to the premise plans.

The stories are each part of Malcolm’s visionless approach to policy. He thinks government spending is good, private investment irrelevant, and national saving not central to his plans. We are dealing with a Labor government that is only being constrained by the conservatives in its ranks, the ones Malcolm is trying to rid the party of.

Everyone is perfectly aware that Albanese will lead the ALP at the next election. If Malcolm loses the unloseable, he will have to emigrate with the other millions heading to Europe.

Following the Obama playbook

America has many problems and enemies to go with them but the only enemies Obama really cares about are Republicans. Same for Malcolm. Australia has its own list of problems but the only enemies Malcolm can get himself worked up about are our Republican-equivalents, which just happens to be members of the party he leads. You hardly need to be a genius to work out that a certain measured common sense is needed right now in the Middle East so I hardly think it’s anything other than Malcolm mimicking Barrack to have said so. But there are those who think that something needs to be done in the Middle East, and despair that America is led by someone who, for whatever reason, feels quite content to let things boil over without any involvement. Worst President ever matched possibly by the worst Prime Minister ever. Time will tell but so far Malcolm has excelled only at avoiding dealing with any of our actual problems, either national or international. If ISIS is not a problem to Malcolm, then he is unfit for the job.

This is Dennis Shanahan in a column in which he is even trying to say nice things about Malcolm. But even so, he does note this:

On Tuesday, the Prime Minister’s security statement to parliament on Syria and Iraq was universally viewed as a “slapdown” to the public statements of his predecessor, which only distracted from the core message to the public. . . .

The jibes about machismo were directed against Abbott and former defence minister Kevin Andrews, who publicly advocated, from the backbench, a greater military presence — SAS forces on missions — in Syria.

Turnbull’s public putdown added to a growing atmosphere of paranoia and resentment between thwarted conservative Coalition MPs and those who supported Turnbull’s seizure of the leadership ten weeks ago.

Yet the idea of considering limited “boots on the ground” is not limited to a coterie of Abbott supporters, with West Australian Liberal Luke Simpkins, one of the signatories of the leadership spill against Abbott in February, telling parliament it was something we “need to do”.

No one knows the answer in dealing with ISIS but allowing the problem to fester is not high on the list of possible solutions.

Learning on the job – international division

Malcolm is finding this being PM a bit trickier than he thought it would be. Hanging around with Mark Scott and others of that sort left him with the impression that every problem has an easy solution, and they are all found by watching the ABC. So what sorts of blunders has he made? Let’s look at the international ones, and let me begin with the consequences of his thinking that the solution in Syria would be to allow ISIS into some kind of power-sharing arrangement.

JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, your call for some power-sharing there, how open are you to extending that to include some of the Sunni elements that are part of or linked to Daesh?

PRIME MINISTER: Well, this is, you know, in Australia we are, what you need, what we need there is a political settlement. And it is clear that the principal determinants of, the people that will decide who can be in or out are going to be the people in Syria. You know the dictating terms from foreign capitals is unlikely to be successful. . . .

There needs to be a ceasefire as has been asked for in Vienna, and there needs to then be a power-sharing deal, as I mentioned, you know the example of Lebanon is given, I mean, that obviously has had its imperfections as well. But nonetheless, there needs to be a power-sharing deal.

He has backed away from this by denying he said what he said. But it is almost certainly what he thinks, irrespective of what he says. And now we find he has allowed a 99-year lease to be given to the Chinese, another issue he may find he will have to reverse himself on.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has made a significant error in trying to justify the decision to lease Australia’s crucial northern port to Chinese interests, by claiming it is not used by the military.

The Northern Territory Government sparked international controversy last month when it decided to lease the Port of Darwin facilities to a Chinese-owned company.

Some defence analysts have warned the company, Landbridge, has strong links to the Chinese Communist Party. They have also warned China will use the lease strategically to secure a presence in the north of Australia.

The ABC has also been told US president Barack Obama raised the sale directly with Mr Turnbull in a face-to-face meeting this week.

On Friday Mr Turnbull was questioned by Darwin radio station MIX 104.9 about the sale of the port.

“The port that is being leased is not being used by the military, it is a commercial port,” he said.

But according to an announcement by the Darwin Port Corporation on November 16, the lease includes East Arm Wharf commercial port outside Darwin and the Fort Hill Wharf close to the city’s CBD.

Fort Hill Wharf is advertised as a “cruise ship and Defence vessel facility”.

The Darwin Port Corporation website promotes the wharf as catering to “frequent naval ship visits” for visiting international and domestic naval ships.

This isn’t just a rookie mistake. This is plain incompetence. He has no feel whatsoever about any of these issues. His instincts are wrong, which is why he has no ability to even detect such errors as they are being made. Even The Oz is beginning to think better of its own captain’s pick. This is Paul Kelly no less, the leader of the Turnbull claque, writing in today’s paper: Abbott’s strategy as voice of conservatism begins to emerge. Kelly has not, of course, changed sides, but he is beginning to see that Tony was onto something, and was far ahead of his time. A few excerpts:

Abbott thinks Turnbull’s instincts are too progressive for him to become a successful long-run leader of an essentially conservative party. Abbott knows any political vacuum must be filled and he is irresistibility being drawn into the role of leadership of a popular conservative movement designed to ensure Turnbull stays true to traditional conservative values. . . .

Freed from the constraints of office, Abbott’s ability to mobilise conservative opinion should not be underestimated.

So far, the actual Turnbull-Abbott differences are more about style and process than content. This week both said Islamic State needs to be defeated in a military sense but Turnbull is a strong advocate of a political settlement. Abbott wants more boots on the ground. But this is untenable without the lead coming from President Obama. . . .

The appalling statement after the Paris attacks by the spiritual leader, the Grand Mufti, Dr ­Ibrahim Abu Mohammed, shows Abbott’s statement was justified. The issue is not its validity but its wisdom. That Australia has a problem with the nature of its Islamic leadership is beyond dispute. The real issue is how to manage this, discuss it and correct it. . . .

Abbott showed from 2009 onwards an acute instinct in picking the big trend: that carbon pricing would provoke a popular backlash. He has free reign, again, to identify and mobilise around new populist conservative causes.

Abbott is sending a message to the Liberal faithful: we expect the leader to champion, expound and articulate our conservative ­values. Decoded: Abbott is ready to fight Turnbull over the nature of Liberal values. And he believes he better grasps those values than does Turnbull. . . .

Abbott fears the West is too weak to confront Islamic State. Thatcher, he says, would not be weak. Thatcher, he says, understood that “those that won’t use decisive force, where needed, end up being dictated to by those who will”. When Abbott as PM first met Obama in the White House he came with a message: that Australia was willing to fight beside the US for just causes.

He said publicly on that visit that while Australia was not America’s most powerful ally, it would be its most dependable. Abbott is disappointed in Obama, the classic conservative response.

His mantra is that the West, like Australia, must possess the self-confidence to defend its interests and its universal values.

We will know that Malcolm has finally got the message when he makes Tony our Minister of Foreign Affairs. Until then, Turnbull is likely to go from blunder to blunder since he has no apparent instinct whatsoever in finding his way among the international dilemmas we now face. You could put up with it in more benign times, but these are not the kind of times when we should be trying to find our way with such an inept leader as our current PM.

The value of free speech

That letting everyone have their say on any matter of public importance is so evident as the best way to manage differences within a community was never better seen than in the last few days. In my view, there are very few really good liars around, with the Clintons and Obama among the best there is (and even they need the help of the even more mendacious media). Mostly, however, people say what they think, even when they are trying to shape their beliefs into a form that others will find acceptable. So with this in mind, I hope I may be permitted to put in a good word for Australia’s Grand Mufti. This is the press release that got him into such hot water.

mufti statement on paris

First, he didn’t write it. Someone else wrote the first draft and then it was gone over by others until they were satisfied that it said what they wanted said. If you can read what it says, you can see which side those who wrote it are on. Why shouldn’t they be on their own side? They mourn the loss of innocent lives rather than actively condemning the attacks. Such is as it is. What is important is for us to understand what they believe. Their plain speaking has set everything straight. Whether the knowledge we have has any practical value is something else again, but at least we know.

Or take Waleed Aly and his own reaction. All you need is love, apparently:

“If you are a member of Parliament or a has-been member of Parliament [who do you suppose he means by this?] preaching hate [and who’s doing that?] at a time when what we actually need is more love — you are helping ISIL. They have told us that. [Who is “they” and when did they tell us?] If you are a Muslim leader telling your community they have no place here [and who has told them that?] or basically them saying the same thing — you are helping ISIL.

It’s our fault and not theirs. We may think the killers in Paris are savages but he thinks they were provoked, and if we condemn their actions, we are playing into ISIS’s hands. I don’t think so but that’s not the point. The value in hearing it is that you start to understand who and what we are up against. They do not condemn these attacks in anything more than a perfunctory way, since they see themselves as more sinned against than sinning. You may not think so, and I may not think so, but many of them do think so, and that’s what letting them say their piece allows us to understand.

Voting on how to respond to ISIS

The heading is Australia’s most outspoken commentators on how we should fight Islamic State after Paris attacks but more interesting is that at the end of the summaries, you can vote for your favourite position. The five positions in the order they are presented are:

Waleed Aly
Andrew Bolt
Australia’s Grand Mufti
Tony Abbott
Pauline Hansen

The methodology is, of course, skewed and there is little reason to take the results as much more than straws in the wind. But a more important consideration is that Tony Abbott and Pauline Hansen are politicians and therefore think in terms of practical policies, of actually doing things. The others have their expertise in explaining things. In most respects, Abbott and Bolt take the same position, but Andrew writes a blog and newspaper column while Tony had to find a policy that all within his party could accept, or at least live with, as a plan of action. Expressing opinions is easier than making policy, which is not a criticism but a fact of life.

Found at Andrew Bolt.

Raising the GST to 15% is not a 5% increase it is a 50% increase

Why is a rise in GST even on the table, never mind one so large? This is why the left is backing Malcolm to the hilt. The ALP could never get away with such a heist, but the Liberals can, since there is no doubt whatsoever that an increase in the GST to 15% will be supported by Labor. And it’s not just a 50% increase since they also wish to broaden the tax to include some of the current exclusions.

The meme that Tony was uninterested in economics never goes away, but he at least knew where he was trying to get to. He was let down by an incompetent Treasurer but there is no reason to think Abbott was uninterested in getting the budget to balance through lower spending.

Malcolm supposedly has a greater interest in economics, but what’s the point of having such an interest if you are so off the mark in understanding what needs to be done to get the economy to grow. Turnbull is a Keynesian. He wants to increase the level of public spending, and wants to rake in the cash so he can do it.

Making money in business is common. Understanding economics is a very different talent and skill, and it is one Turnbull most definitely does not have. If he manages to get the GST up to 15%, he will lead Australia into a recession the likes of which we have not experienced for many many years.

How did we end up with such a dud for PM?

All this is pulled from Andrew Bolt under the heading, Turnbull wrong, Abbott right: the boats must be stopped.

Malcolm Turnbull chose the wrong time to rebuke Tony Abbott on border policy – just hours before the French attacks:

MALCOLM Turnbull has delivered a slap-down to Tony Abbott for lecturing European leaders over their refugee policies as he arrived in Berlin…

As Mr Turnbull cemented his alliance with Dr Merkel – a successful conservative German Chancellor for a decade and the most powerful leader in Europe – he also rebuked Mr Abbott for criticising her stance on refugees fleeing war in the Middle East.

Mr Abbott last month used a speech in London to urge European leaders to copy his tough policies against people smugglers by turning back boats at sea and denying entry to asylum seekers who have passed through other safe countries…

Asked about Mr Abbott’s comments after his meeting with Dr Merkel in Berlin, Mr Turnbull said he would not lecture other countries about their policies.

“We had a very good discussion but I have no intention or desire to give advice on these matters to the German Chancellor,” Mr Turnbull said.

“Each country faces very different circumstances, not least of which are geographic…”

Same spin in the Financial Review:

Malcolm Turnbull has repudiated Tony Abbott over his warnings to Europe about asylum seekers, whilst standing alongside Angela Merkel, the German chancellor who has offered to take in 800,000 people fleeing the Syrian war.

Same spin before the meeting from the well-briefed Australian:

Malcolm Turnbull will break with Tony Abbott’s message on the flood of refugees into Europe after landing in Germany for talks on defence, trade and border protection…

… there will be no “lecture” to Ms Merkel about the lessons from Australia’s policy of turning back asylum seeker boats, weeks after Mr Abbott used a speech in London to declare that Europe needed to adopt the same approach.

The Australian understands the Prime Minister will emphasise Australia’s success at resettling thousands of refugees every year and note the ethnic diversity that has come from each wave of new migrants.

But now we read this:

The holder of a Syrian passport found near the body of one of the gunmen who died in Friday night’s attacks in Paris passed though Greece in October, a Greek minister said.

“The holder of the passport passed through the island of Leros on Oct. 3, 2015, where he was identified according to EU rules,” said Greece’s deputy minister in charge of police, Nikos Toskas, in a statement.

A Greek police source said the passport’s owner was a young man who had arrived in Leros with a group of 69 refugees and had his fingerprints taken by authorities there. Police declined to give his name.

Abbott today:

FORMER prime minister Tony Abbott has warned the risk that terrorists are hiding among the flood of refugees fleeing Islamic State underlines his warning on the need for tougher border controls.