Piketty in Melbourne

I went to see Thomas Piketty tonight, author of the socialist tract of our time, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. The left has run out of all of the standard criticisms of capitalism, that it will crush the working class, savage our living standards, prevent production for need rather than profit, and et cetera ad infinitum. That we live in a world of material abundance hasn’t tipped the balance away from the fifty per cent of every society who are frustrated because others do better than they do and want redress. Hence the stellar issue of our time, the demand for equality. It was a short Q&A after with only three questions that ended up being asked, and so I was left with the microphone in my hand but no chance to ask what I had in mind. This was my question:

We are meeting in the Melbourne Town Hall, built when Australia was the richest country in the world, and Melbourne was the richest city in the world’s richest country.

Back then, no one had a car, a computer, a radio or TV. Few had indoor plumbing, hot and cold running water and electric lights. No one flew to London, went to the movies or surfed the net.

What possible difference could it make to anyone whether income distribution in some measure that is invisible to everyone without a dataset and a computer happens to be more skewed in one direction today than it was at some moment in the past?

I have asked a similar question before to someone at an Economics Society meeting in Melbourne, and the chap point blank refused to answer my question because, he said, it didn’t make sense to him.

But the fact is that the poor will always be with us and so will the rich. We have the richest poor people who have ever lived, and there is no reason to think that if we manage our affairs properly, that the standard of living of the poorest amongst us in fifty years will have an income level that is only attainable by the top ten percent of our population today.

So the sad thing is that the one thing we have discovered by increasing wealth and raising living standards to levels inconceivable a century ago has hardly affected the average level of contentment. As for distribution of wealth, the person who did ask the third question instead of me went on a long rant against the capitalist system. My expectation was that Piketty would at least defang to some extent the premise of his question, but he didn’t. So he really is nothing other than a soap box rabble rouser with no other genuine intent other than to stir up as much trouble as he can.

Say’s Law and the money economy

Let me begin with this quote from Tel in the comments on my previous post which was on the just published interview with me on Say’s Law. Tel begins with a quote from my post and then discusses the difficulty in dealing with savings in the form of money versus savings in the form of resources:

Say’s Law remains the single most important principle in all of economics.

Only because Keynesians need to insist they have disproven Say’s Law in order to perpetrate their price manipulation and power grab.

The problem being that there are methods to confuse a lot of people for a limited time, and give a convincing illusion that Say’s Law no longer applies. How long this illusion can be extended is questionable, but with sufficient power behind it, seems like quite a while.

That’s why I prefer the explanation, “Money is a veil over barter” which is easier to understand and contains within it the concept of two layers: the barter layer where every good or service exchanges for another good or service, plus the money layer which attaches prices to these things and (just like any “veil”) also hides something. Say’s Law in it’s pure sense applies to a barter economy and when all we have is a barter economy it becomes so obvious and irrefutable that it seems barely worth a mention. Once the veil is in place it’s possible to lose track of what’s happening underneath.

Say’s Law does, of course, apply to an economy in which money is the medium of exchange, a store of value and the unit of account. If it didn’t, there would be no point in mentioning it at all. And by coincidence, on the same day that Man and the Economy published my article on Say’s Law, Quadrant has published online my article on money and the real economy: That’s the Way the Money Goes. There is a lot in the article – it’s 4500 words long – but this is the core issue:

At the centre of a proper understanding of rates of interest is the recognition that when someone is looking to invest, what they borrow is money but what they are actually seeking are capital assets, labour time and other forms of input such as electricity and transport. There was therefore a dual focus [in pre-Keynesian economic theory] that was essential to make sense of what actually went on. One had to absolutely keep an eye on the market for money and credit, and at the same time to be completely mindful of the supply of real resources available for productive investment.

Money is more than a veil, of course. Things do not go on just as if it were all perfectly visible. The existence of money causes massive misdirection and distortions in the structure of production. You can barely make sense of anything unless you understand the role of money, but you also cannot understand the way money distorts economic reality unless you also understand Say’s Law which explains the nature of the actual reality the existence of money distorts.

A comprehensive summary of Say’s Law

canlorbe-conversation-with-steve-kates

An interview with me on Say’s Law by the French journalist Grégoire Canlorbe has just been published in Man and the Economy, the journal of The Coase Society. It is the most comprehensive summary statement I have put together of Say’s Law – it runs to 31 pages – and I could not be more grateful to Grégoire who spent more than a year in discussing the relevant issues with me before we actually got down to the interview. You can download a copy of the article here .

Say’s Law remains the single most important principle in all of economics. Policy decisions that go against the grain of Say’s Law are guaranteed to fail, for which the evidence remains overwhelming. The obvious failure of every one of the stimulus packages that were attempted after the GFC, along with the failures that have been associated with attempts to stimulate investment by reducing rates of interest, ought to have at least made some economists consider that perhaps Say’s Law is valid. The reason this does not happen is that virtually no economist understands even what the underlying principle of Say’s Law is. My article will, I hope, at least create some interest in what had been the bedrock proposition of classical economic theory almost from the time of Adam Smith through until the publication of The General Theory in 1936.

The journal is itself attempting to redirect economic theory in a more fruitful direction. These are the journal’s published objectives.

When modern economics was born in the 18th century, Adam Smith made it a historical study of man and the rising commercial society. For Smith, economics is first and foremost concerned with wealth-creation, where the division of labor is the key organizing principle. In the next century, David Ricardo shifted the focus of economics from production to distribution. Over the course of the 20th century, economics has gradually metamorphosed into the logic of choice and taken mathematics as its language. These two transformations have together made economics a towering discipline in the social sciences. But this achievement comes with a heavy price. Economics has largely become a theory-driven subject, severed from the ordinary business of life. Rather than seeing this disconnection as a fatal flaw undermining the vitality of the discipline, many economists take pride in that economics is no longer confined to any subject matter, but stands as a versatile, subject-free analytical approach.

The Coase Society aims to reorient economics as a study of man and the economy. The human economy is a man-made, evolving complex system of cooperation and competition. The defining character of the market economy is its continuous innovation, churning out novel products from the constantly adapting structure of production. This dynamics is kept alive by entrepreneurship and the growth of knowledge. To understand how this open system works requires both empirical and theoretical efforts. But theory-building, unless informed and disciplined by facts on the ground, can easily degenerate into “blackboard economics”. Empirical work is most valuable only when it changes the way we look at the problem. The paucity of systematic interaction and mutual learning between empiricists and theorists and the lack of competition in research methodology in modern economics have severely sterilized the discipline.

Man and the Economy is not to replace the prevailing paradigm in economics with what the Society believes as a different and superior one. Such a paradigm simply does not exist yet. But economics as currently practiced ought to change. Working with students of economies across disciplines and all over the world, and bringing diversity and competition into the marketplace for economics ideas, Man and the Economy can help to make it happen. We welcome empirical (historical, qualitative, statistical, experimental) investigations and theoretical explorations that deepen our understanding of how the economy works and how it changes over time. Man and the Economy is keen to publish articles that examine how the market economy spreads throughout the globe and adapts to local conditions as well as studies that cross disciplinary boundaries and/or integrate diverse methods to shed light on the working of the economy.

A necessary journal for our times.

Read this now while there is still time

This is the incredible Introduction to a book by Paul Hellyer written in 1999. Hellyer had been a Liberal Party cabinet minister from the days before I left Canada when the Liberal Party was the party of business. The title is Stop Think, and given its message could have been written this morning on behalf of Donald Trump. It is the most accurate and prescient writing I have ever come across on anything. It may only just explain what now cannot be stopped, but there is still the possibility that Trump will win. This will help you understand how essential it is that he does. And to repeat, this was written in 1999.
__________

Have you ever tried to write a column or a book to say to the vast majority of economists and opinion leaders that they have got it all wrong; that they have set the world on a collision course with disaster? It is presumptuous, of course, but those of us who are dissenters, and our ranks are growing daily, have a moral obligation to ourselves to sound the alarm before it is too late.

We seem to be hell bent toward a world without borders. Someone has decided to eradicate the nation state as an effective political entity and to rob it of much of its power by moving back to the corporatism of the medieval society; this is not forward-looking but a wish to move back to the pre-democratic era. Decisions that have been the prerogative of national governments are being transferred to outsiders including the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and transnational corporations.

Apart from the dubious merit of such a massive transfer of power is the undeniable fact that it is being done without the advice or consent of the people whose lives are being affected. They, whoever they may be, are re-engineering the world without asking for our opinions and without giving us the opportunity to express them in any tangible way through the ballot box.

To add insult to injury, globalization is being pushed down our throats without the courtesy of any vision of what the world will look like when the revolutions has run its course. Who will be in charge? To whom will they be accountable? How will changes be effected? What recourse will there be for the people who believe they have been seriously disadvantaged in the process?

A skeptic might conclude that there are no satisfactory answers to these questions because globalization is, in reality, a smoke-screen for the biggest power grab in history. The wealthiest, most powerful, people in the world have become impatient with democracy which sets standards of conduct and taxes wealth to provide services for the common good. To paraphrase, their battle hymn is Arthur Christopher Benson’s immortal line, “God who made us mighty, make us mightier yet.”

This can be achieved by shackling the nation states; by taking away their right to determine the conditions upon which direct foreign investment is welcome; by insisting that they must admit goods produced under the most despicable of circumstances; by requiring that their land and assets be “for sale” to foreigners; and that their central banks be immune to political control.

The aim of the game is a world where nation states are powerless to protect their citizens from external shocks and developments; where governments are mere pawns in the hands of international banks, supranational corporations and world bureaucracies accountable to no one. To an extent considered inconceivable to many, the globalized world would be a world dominated by power and greed.

No one would deny that there are benefits to international action. Treaties to ban the use of land mines and a World Court to try persons accused of crimes against humanity may be steps in the right direction. Similarly there can be benefits to liberalized and freer trade, but only if it does not undermine the viability of national economies and if the rules include acceptable safeguards and standards in areas such as labor and environmental protection.

Those standards to not yet exist, and the transnational corporations sponsoring globalization are determined that they never will exist, except on a purely voluntary and consequently ineffective basis. No mandatory restrictions on their freedom of action are on the negotiating table.

If liberalized trade may ultimately bring about some positive results the same cannot be said about globalized financial services and unrestricted capital flows. They/ are a recipe for international instability and chaos and there is no existing or potential financial watchdog that can prevent it. The principal beneficiaries of such a system are the parasitical currency traders and short-term money lenders who, like vampires, live by sucking the life-blood from one target of convenience after another.

Yet this kind of system has been the object of the negotiations for a Multilateral Treaty on Investment under the OECD, the proposed Free Trade agreement for the Americas, the Article IV Amendments being pushed by the International Monetary Fund and other venues. They lead to a dead end that is difficult, almost impossible to reverse. Still, the trend must be reversed!

The claim that globalization is the road to nirvana for a desperate world is false. It is the road that will lead inevitably to another financial meltdown, the impoverishment of millions of innocent people and the death of democracy in any meaningful sense. This book is dedicated to alternatives that would lead to a world of greater justice and opportunity for all.

It is not intended to be anti-American because, in truth, it is not. Yet it is impossible to write about globalization, and the imposition of a neo-classical economic system with a track record of failure, without holding the coach accountable for a game plan resulting in injuries to most of the players.

Readers familiar with my work will note that some of the arguments have been borrowed from earlier books. Everyone will find a certain amount of repetition. This is not inadvertent. Some of the principal points need to be emphasized over and over again.

Finally, it must be admitted that I am of a generation unschooled in the niceties of political correctness and inclusive language. I hope that I may be forgiven for expressing my hopes without fear or favor.

It’s actually John Stuart Mill

This has been posted about Theresa May, the new PM of The UK under the heading, Oh dear … she’s certainly no Maggie.

“Government can and should be a force for good; the state exists to provide what individual people, communities and markets cannot; we should employ the power of government for the good of the people. Time to reject the ideological templates provided by the socialist left and the libertarian right and embrace a new centre ground in which government steps up – and not back – to act on behalf of the people.”

Market economics is now thoroughly confused with Austrian political notions. What you find written by May could have just as easily been penned by JSM. This is at the end of his almost 200-page discussion on the role of government which looks suspiciously like the above quote from May:

“In attempting to enumerate the necessary functions of government, we find them to be considerably more multifarious than most people are at first aware of, and not capable of being circumscribed by those very definite lines of demarcation, which, in the inconsiderateness of popular discussion, it is often attempted to draw round them.”

Politics must and always will dominate economics. Leaving things to the market does not mean never try to improve things if you can. What good economics will teach is when you can do good and when you cannot. So doing nothing at all is seldom good economic policy even though sometimes it is.

Something else to keep you awake at night

From Zerohedge: The IMF Sounds An Alarm As Global Debt Hits A Record $152 Trillion Or 225% Of World GDP. First the quote and then their comment:

When the debt overhang is severe, balance sheets may also need to be cleaned up. Unfortunately, without government intervention, balance sheet repair often proceeds very slowly, because of coordination problems, market failures, and the inability of distressed banks to absorb losses (Laeven and Laryea 2009; Laryea 2010). However, leaving the debt overhang unaddressed can result in lower consumption and underinvestment (Olney 1999; Myers 1977), which, if compounded by banks’ foregoing profitable lending opportunities (Philippon and Schnabl 2013), will weaken the recovery. This is an argument for targeted fiscal intervention to speed up the resolution of the debt overhang problem. These types of interventions are usually geared toward addressing weaknesses in the banking sector and typically include recapitalization, asset purchases, and sometimes guarantees. But they can also include measures to facilitate the repair of households’ and firms’ balance sheets. A government-sponsored debt-restructuring program in the latter case often includes subsidies for creditors for lengthening maturities, guarantees, or both and direct lending to companies that are viable but unable to access financial markets, as well as the creation of asset management companies.

The bolded section is also known as “kicking the bucket” and is precisely what China has been aggressively engaged in recently, following news that a quarter of its companies can not cover the interest expense on their debt. . . .

The mere thought of China, with its 300% debt/GDP, entering a recession is enough to bring nightmares for any policy planner in the world today.

And there is nothing special about China in having misdirected its resource base into non-productive activities. The US is as bad and others must be given the aggregate statistic.

The Fed’s not political apparently, just incompetent

Defending their own, from the Financial Times in London: Trump’s mudslinging puts the Fed in danger.

That the Fed is a politicised institution — more so than most other central banks — is not a contentious observation. Compared with international counterparts, there is a high degree of declared political affiliation among Fed governors and a tendency for presidents to appoint one of their own as Fed chair. Nor is it unusual for Fed officials also to have served in the executive branch: Alan Greenspan, Fed chairman from 1987-2006, had been chairman of the White House economic advisers council in Gerald Ford’s administration. Ben Bernanke, his successor, did the same job under George W Bush.

But that does not translate into setting monetary policy in a politically partisan way.

Oh no, of course not. But since the Fed would act in exactly the same way if it were a declared agent of the Democratic Party, how are we to tell the difference? Rates should have gone up a long time ago. That they have stayed put makes anyone watching what they do very suspicious.

Weak and fragile

global-growth

The chart is from Bloomberg so we can presume it’s reasonably accurate. I put it up since the outcome is exactly what I had expected. What more interesting is the alarmist title of the article: “Existential Threat to World Order Confronts Elite at IMF Meeting”. They really don’t have a clue, do they? Here’s one more example that they don’t see the order of cause and effect nor their own role in it:

Fed by stagnant wages and diminishing job security, the populist uprising threatens to depress a world economy that International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde says is already “weak and fragile.”

If things were strong and robust, no one would be saying a thing. The populist uprising is because these people are so incompetent, and the rest of us find it nerve wracking to watch them in action. I particular liked this:

Lagarde said last week that policy makers attending the Oct. 7-9 annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank have two tasks. First, do no harm, which above all means resisting the temptation to throw up protectionist barriers to trade. And second, take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive.

They wish to do no harm wish to but take action to boost global growth. And I like the implied definition of free trade found here:

Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of free trade over the past generation, China, still restricts access to many of its key industries, with economists worried about increasingly mercantilist policies. . . .

“The consensus in policy-making circles was that more trade meant better economic growth,” said Standard Chartered head of Greater China economic research Ding Shuang, who worked at the IMF from 1997 to 2010. “But the benefits weren’t shared equitably, so now we see a round of anti-globalization, anti-free trade.

The article didn’t say the form on which these economic leaders intend to “take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive” but my guess is they will try the same old tired nonsense that has done so well so far, as the data above can attest.

Why economic theory is not self-correcting

This is about the hard sciences mostly, but fits into my astonishment that Keynesian economics seems to survive every failure: Why Science Is Not Necessarily Self-Correcting.

In the absence of replication efforts, one is left with unconfirmed (genuine) discoveries and unchallenged fallacies. In several fields of investigation, including many areas of psychological science, perpetuated and unchallenged fallacies may comprise the majority of the circulating evidence.

Of course, with economics we are not even dealing with replicatable experiments but simply the received theory that is built into the models that are used to test them. It does seem to me that economists only look at models and never at what’s going on outside their windows in the actual economy. And although few economists even know this, the datasets they use – such as GDP, the CPI and the unemployment rate – are almost entirely designed to deceive rather than enlighten.

The 2016 UK HET Conference in Shanghai

ukhet-group-photo

The UK History of Economic Thought Conference this year was held in Shanghai because, as I understand it, the Chinese are interested in pursuing HET and want to see how it is done. They get it, that HET brings an extra and extremely important dimension to the study of economics, something it is hard to convince economists in the West about.

The UK meeting is always extremely good, and this one was no exception, in large part because they only have a handful of presentations and they are always plenary sessions so that for presenters, you really are guaranteed the benefit of listening to comments from quite knowledgable people. And on this occasion because all of the fees and expenses were paid (but not the air fares), and partly because it was in Shanghai, it did seem to attract an astonishing array of high quality papers. It was very pleasing to be included. The group photo is above.