Piketty returns ignorant as ever

This is a review of Thomas Piketty’s new book, Capital and Ideology. From The Financial Times in London, demonstrating that the capitalist class has no concerns about the jerks who write articles where the final para reads, “Advocates of inequality will come up with the usual justifications. But now is the redistributionists’ best chance.” What chance that is I have no idea.

The thing is that a billionaire has virtually nothing to distribute. Their billions comes from owning businesses that produce things like iron and steel or caustic soda, not from having a mountain of consumer goods stashed away that they keep to themselves and refuse to share with others. What they do own are the means of production with which the goods and services sought are produced. There is plenty of sharing the wealth that goes on already, especially with many who do nothing themselves to help create that wealth, living quite all right. The writer of this article is a typical modern twit with no idea about anything at all, even though he works for the financial press. The Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerbergs of the world must laugh themselves silly at the pretension idiocies these people write.

Of course, for many the surest way to wealth, often their only way to wealth, is to enter politics on the left. I think there is a need for psychiatric evaluation for the people who vote for socialists, although oddly every psychiatrist I have ever met has been on the left themselves. Here’s the article.

Thomas Piketty’s new book, Capital and Ideology, appears in English translation next March. But I got a sneak preview by walking into my local Parisian bookshop and handing over €25 for the French edition. My conclusion: the 1,200-page tome might become even more politically influential than the French economist’s 2013 overview of inequality, Capital in the Twenty-First Century.

Helped a little by that book, inequality has soared up the left’s agenda, especially in the particularly unequal US and UK. Now Elizabeth Warren has a shot at becoming the most redistributionist US president since Franklin D Roosevelt, while an electable post-Corbyn Labour leader could achieve similar in Britain.

Piketty explains why this could be the moment for a turn to equality, and which policies could make that happen.

His premise is that inequality is a political choice. It’s something societies opt for, not an inevitable result of technology and globalisation. Whereas Marx saw history as class struggle, Piketty sees it as a battle of ideologies.

Every unequal society, he says, creates an ideology to justify inequality. That allows the rich to fall asleep in their town houses while the homeless freeze outside.

In his overambitious history of ­inequality from ancient India to today’s US, Piketty recounts the justifications that recur throughout time: “Rich people deserve their wealth.” “It will trickle down.” “They give it back through philanthropy.” “Property is liberty.” “The poor are undeserving.” “Once you start redistributing wealth, you won’t know where to stop and there’ll be chaos” — a favourite argument after the French Revolution. “Communism failed.” “The money will go to black people” — an argument that, Piketty says, explains why inequality remains highest in countries with historic racial divides such as Brazil, South Africa and the US.

Another common justification, which he doesn’t mention, is “High taxes are punitive” — as if the main issue were the supposed psychology behind redistribution rather than its actual effects.

All these justifications add up to what he calls the “sacralisation of property”. But today, he writes, the “propriétariste and meritocratic narrative” is getting fragile. There’s a growing understanding that so-called meritocracy has been captured by the rich, who get their kids into the top universities, buy political parties and hide their money from taxation.

Moreover, notes Piketty, the wealthy are overwhelmingly male and their lifestyles tend to be particularly environmentally damaging. Donald Trump — a climate-change-denying sexist heir who got elected president without releasing his tax returns — embodies the problem.

In fact, support for redistribution is growing even faster than Piketty acknowledges, especially in the US. Twice as many Americans now feel more distrust than admiration for billionaires, according to a HuffPost/YouGov poll. Millennials are especially suspicious of success.

More American adults under 30 say they believe in “socialism” than “capitalism”, report the pollsters Gallup. This generation owns too little property to sacralise it.

Centre-right parties across the west have taken up populism because their low-tax, small-state story wasn’t selling any more. Rightwing populism speaks to today’s anti-elitist, anti-meritocratic mood.

However, it deliberately refocuses debate from property to what Piketty calls “the frontier” (and others would call borders). That leaves a gap in the political market for redistributionist ideas. We’re now at a juncture much like around 1900, when extreme inequality helped launch social democratic and communist parties.

Piketty lays out a new redistributionist agenda. He calls for “educational justice” — essentially, spending the same amount on each person’s education. He favours giving workers a major say over how their companies are run, as in Germany and Sweden. But his main proposal is for wealth taxes.

Far from abolishing property, he wants to spread it to the bottom half of the population, who even in rich countries have never owned much. To do this, he says, requires redefining private property as “temporary” and limited: you can enjoy it during your lifetime, in moderate quantities.

He proposes wealth taxes of 90 per cent on billionaires. From the proceeds, a country such as France could give each citizen a trust fund worth about €120,000 at age 25. Very high tax rates, he notes, didn’t impede fast growth in the 1950-80 period.

Warren (advised by economists who work with Piketty) is proposing annual taxes of 2 per cent on household fortunes over $50m, and 3 per cent on billionaires. She projects that this would affect 75,000 households, and yield revenues of $2.75tn over 10 years. Polls suggest most Americans like the idea.

Paradoxically, the plutocratic US may be ideal terrain for a wealth tax. Mark Stabile, economist at Insead, points out that, first, rich Americans now have so much wealth that even if Warren captures just a small proportion, it could add up to a lot; second, Americans are taxed on their passports, so moving wealth abroad won’t save them (and Warren would slap hefty exit taxes on anyone giving up citizenship); last, thanks to SwissLeaks and the Panama Papers, we’ve learnt a lot about how the rich hide money.

Advocates of inequality will come up with the usual justifications. But now is the redistributionists’ best chance.

Have these people never heard about this thing called the market?

As I sometimes mention, the only area I really disagree with Donald Trump about is interest rates. Keeping rates high enough to sort out good investments from bad actually makes an economy more productive and growth oriented. The Fed is really trying to harm the President but may actually be helping him create the economic boom the American economy is surely enjoying. It is possible for rates to be too high, of course, but it is also very possible for rates to be too low. No chance in the world central banks have the slightest understanding of any of this, or at least little chance given how they behave.

Let me give you a very clear example of pandering to economic ignorance:

The big four banks are reaping an extra $14bn a year in interest ­repayments after withholding a quarter of all Reserve Bank rate cuts since 2011 while at the same time reducing term deposit interest rates in excess of official cash rate reductions.

An analysis of standard variable rates for mortgages and interest rates paid to savers, carried out by comparison website RateCity on behalf of The Australian shows standard variable rates have fallen by just 2.99 per cent since October 2011. Over the same period, the RBA has reduced the cash rate by 4 per cent.

The big four banks’ margin on average standard variable home loans has grown to 4.05 per cent over the cash rate, wider than the 3 per cent difference when the RBA began its latest round of monetary easing in 2011.

The margin is now double the 2 per cent margin that existed ­before the global financial crisis.

And while I can see why the PM has these views, since he, too, must think the lower the rate of interest, the stronger the level of investment will be. But this is just wrong.

Scott Morrison rebuked the big banks last week over their failure to pass on in full the RBA’s Oct­ober rate cut of 0.25 to a record-low 0.75 per cent. After the rate announcement, the CBA cut its owner-occupied rate by 0.13 per cent and ANZ by 0.14 per cent while NAB and Westpac cut by 0.15 per cent.

“Mortgage holders … have a reason to be disappointed in the banks, basically, profiteering,” the Prime Minister said.

He was only “disappointed” from which I assume he does not intend to wield any big stick at the banks. Hope so. Labor of course understands none of it:

Opposition Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers said on Sunday Labor would consider, as part of a broader raft of potential packages, whether to increase the 0.06 per cent tax on the big four banks, plus Macquarie, to increase competition in the sector….

“All of these options should be on the table,” Dr Chalmers told Sky News.

Higher taxes to increase competition! What economic buffoons these people are.

Classical inflation

Being a classical economist myself, I understand what the classicals meant when they said that public sector deficits lead to inflation. They meant that if a government ran a deficit, they would eventually be forced to inflate the money supply.

You’d have to go back to an economic text written in the 1930s at least. Once Keynesian economics became the fashion, since the very policy was of itself inflationary in the classical sense – and could in some circumstances lead to a rise in the price level (our modern definition of inflation) – there was an imperative to change the meaning of inflation among economists.

But what you see before your eyes is the very embodiment of classical theory. We now have central banks trying to save their mates in Treasury from having to finance the debts they racked up in the non-stimulatory stimulus. If they actually had to repay this debt at a market rate, we would all go bankrupt. Instead, they are thieving from the public to cover for their own incompetence.

The SMH this morning has a particularly absurd story, but it’s what they are trying to tell us: “Rate cut isn’t about money, it’s about jobs”. Well, the only jobs they are trying to save are the jobs of those Treasury incompetents who took us into the fiscal deficit adventure we are now in the midst of and will be for many years to come.

The Reserve Bank is run by incompetents

Really beyond stupid. Purely destructive, but I suppose you can’t expect them to know any better since they are all students of modern macro: RBA cuts official cash rate to 0.75pc at October meeting. They continue with all of their economic insanity expecting that the next time it will work out. Pathetic.

I am running a seminar tomorrow here at the University about which I have sent a note to the History of Economics discussion thread in response to a book review just published praising some tract commemorating the 80th anniversary of the publication of Keynes’s General Theory. Let me firstly just remind you that Keynes was the source of this stupidity that lower rates will stimulate growth. No classical economist ever believed anything so nonsensical This is what I sent.

I hope I will be forgiven for buying into this but it does astonish me that with an unbroken record of failure going back to the 1920s that Keynesian economics continues to hold such allegiance among economists. Is there no one who will rid us of this turbulent presence? And perhaps it is only because I am about to present a seminar to our own School here in Melbourne that I find myself once again so irritated by reading of yet another volume of praise heaped on Keynesian theory, now refined into post-Keynesian, but Keynesian all the same. Let me just add these to the discussion.

First, it’s not as if pubic spending didn’t have a constituency before Keynes, and yet, when it was tried, it turns out that the “Treasury View” was absolutely correct, and has been every time “fiscal stimulation” has been tried – see the GFC for the latest example. Winston Churchill was the British Chancellor of the Exchequer and this is from 1929, from well before the stock market crash in October.

“Churchill pointed to recent government expenditure on public works such as housing, roads, telephones, electricity supply, and agricultural development, and concluded that, although expenditure for these purposes had been justified:

‘For the purposes of curing unemployment the results have certainly been disappointing. They are, in fact, so meagre as to lend considerable colour to the orthodox Treasury doctrine which has been steadfastly held that, whatever might be the political or social advantages, very little additional employment and no permanent additional employment can in fact and as a general rule be created by State borrowing and State expenditure.’” (Peden 1996: 69-70)

There is then this not-very-well-known quote from Keynes’s post-humus article in The Economic Journal from 1946, at least not well-known enough. That he was said to have stated that “I am not a Keynesian” is easy to believe when you see that he wrote the following.

“I find myself moved, not for the first time, to remind contemporary economists that the classical teaching embodied some permanent truths of great significance, which we are liable to-day to overlook because we associate them with other doctrines which we cannot now accept without much qualification. There are in these matters deep undercurrents at work, natural forces, one can call them, or even the invisible hand, which are operating towards equilibrium. If it were not so, we could not have got on even so well as we have for many decades past’.”

This is the note I sent out to the School to see if I can get anyone to come along.

I am all too aware of how uninterested a modern economist is in the classical economics of 150 years ago. Nothing must seem more remote from the economic needs of the twenty-first century. So I will just say this.

  1. Classical economic theory provides a much better understanding of how an economy works than anything found in a modern text.
  2. Classical economic theory has infinitely more insight into how to create growth in a less developed economy than does modern economic theory.
  3. Both the Marginal and especially the Keynesian Revolutions have made economic theory less insightful. There is almost nothing worth knowing, beyond the absolutely obvious, from marginal theory, while Keynesian theory is just plain wrong. Almost none of it will help anyone make sense of the operation of a modern economy.
  4. Even if none of that were true – although all of it is true – if you wish to be a completely well-rounded economist, you should at least know something about the economic theories of the classical economists. This presentation will explain things to you that almost no one any longer has even the remotest idea of.
  5. The attachment [not provided here] is made of up a series of quotes taken directly from Denis O’Brien’s Classical Economics Revisited (1975, updated 2002). All of what he writes is accurate. None of it is any longer taught to anyone.

Unemployment in Australia

area chart of Australia Unemployment Rate from February 1978 to August 2019

The picture is of Australia’s Unemployment Rate since the present series began in 1978. There are lots of ups and downs but let me point out a couple of features.

John Howard is elected in 1996 where almost immediately Peter Costello delivers his first budget surplus which he continues to do year after year until 2007.

The GFC occurs around 2007-08 at which point the unemployment rate rises sharply. The idea we have not had a recession for 25 years or whatever nonsense is the modern idiom is obviously untrue. Things start to improve, as they automatically do following a recession, except that we soon see the effects of “go early, go hard” on the labour market. A peaks is reached around 2015 and has been coming down slowly ever since.

Leaving it to the market is so out of fashion, but that is the answer, and the only answer. Public spending, which never adds to jobs, does however diminish productivity growth. That real earnings are falling is just part of the story when governments attempt to direct the economy without a positive return on investment part of the way in which the economy is being steered.

The RBA is run by incompetents

Really beyond stupid. Purely destructive, but I suppose you can’t expect them to know any better since they are all students of modern macro: RBA cuts official cash rate to 0.75pc at October meeting. They continue with all of their economic insanity expecting that the next time it will work out. Pathetic.

I am running a seminar here at the University tomorrow about which I have sent a note to the History of Economics discussion thread in response to a book review just published praising some tract commemorating the 80th anniversary of the publication of Keynes’s General Theory. Let me firstly just remind you that Keynes was the source of this stupidity that lower rates will stimulate growth. No classical economist ever believed anything so nonsensical This is what I sent.

I hope I will be forgiven for buying into this but it does astonish me that with an unbroken record of failure going back to the 1920s that Keynesian economics continues to hold such allegiance among economists. Is there no one who will rid us of this turbulent presence? And perhaps it is only because I am about to present a seminar to our own School here in Melbourne that I find myself once again so irritated by reading of yet another volume of praise heaped on Keynesian theory, now refined into post-Keynesian, but Keynesian all the same. Let me just add these to the discussion.

First, it’s not as if pubic spending didn’t have a constituency before Keynes, and yet, when it was tried, it turns out that the “Treasury View” was absolutely correct, and has been every time “fiscal stimulation” has been tried – see the GFC for the latest example. Winston Churchill was the British Chancellor of the Exchequer and this is from 1929, from well before the stock market crash in October.

“Churchill pointed to recent government expenditure on public works such as housing, roads, telephones, electricity supply, and agricultural development, and concluded that, although expenditure for these purposes had been justified:

‘For the purposes of curing unemployment the results have certainly been disappointing. They are, in fact, so meagre as to lend considerable colour to the orthodox Treasury doctrine which has been steadfastly held that, whatever might be the political or social advantages, very little additional employment and no permanent additional employment can in fact and as a general rule be created by State borrowing and State expenditure.’” (Peden 1996: 69-70)

There is then this not-very-well-known quote from Keynes’s post-humus article in The Economic Journal from 1946, at least not well-known enough. That he was said to have stated that “I am not a Keynesian” is easy to believe when you see that he wrote the following.

“I find myself moved, not for the first time, to remind contemporary economists that the classical teaching embodied some permanent truths of great significance, which we are liable to-day to overlook because we associate them with other doctrines which we cannot now accept without much qualification. There are in these matters deep undercurrents at work, natural forces, one can call them, or even the invisible hand, which are operating towards equilibrium. If it were not so, we could not have got on even so well as we have for many decades past’.”

This is the note I sent out to the School to see if I can get anyone to come along.

I am all too aware of how uninterested a modern economist is in the classical economics of 150 years ago. Nothing must seem more remote from the economic needs of the twenty-first century. So I will just say this.

  1. Classical economic theory provides a much better understanding of how an economy works than anything found in a modern text.
  2. Classical economic theory has infinitely more insight into how to create growth in a less developed economy than does modern economic theory.
  3. Both the Marginal and especially the Keynesian Revolutions have made economic theory less insightful. There is almost nothing worth knowing, beyond the absolutely obvious, from marginal theory, while Keynesian theory is just plain wrong. Almost none of it will help anyone make sense of the operation of a modern economy.
  4. Even if none of that were true – although all of it is true – if you wish to be a completely well-rounded economist, you should at least know something about the economic theories of the classical economists. This presentation will explain things to you that almost no one any longer has even the remotest idea of.
  5. The attachment [not provided here] is made of up a series of quotes taken directly from Denis O’Brien’s Classical Economics Revisited (1975, updated 2002). All of what he writes is accurate. None of it is any longer taught to anyone.

The economic resistance speaks out

Peter Costello was Australia’s greatest Treasurer bar none. Today in The Oz there is a front page story that reminds me just how much this is so: RBA cuts won’t help the economy, says Peter Costello, with the subtitle, “Former Treasurer urges Coalition to Resist Infrastructure Splurge”. And it’s not just rate cuts that are useless.

Future Fund chairman Peter ­Costello has brushed off suggestions that further cuts in official interest rates will help the economy, while urging the government to resist calls to ratchet up infrastructure spending, saying it should tackle the “hard” issues of structural reform.

He ran the economy for eleven years, and among the best forecasts I ever made was to say that we will all live through it, see how well a policy of balanced budgets and zero debt actually works, and not learn a thing. Come the GFC, and that fiscal incompetent Kevin Rudd grabbed the stimulus tray with both hands and now, more than a decade later, we cannot get our economy untracked. And it’s not just balancing the budget that matters.

So let me bring you back to the economics of the classics and tell you what needs to be done: (1) leave growth to the private sector and (2) keep interest rates high enough to stop our resources being ploughed into unproductive projects (eg the NBN, desal plants, streetcars down George St, billion dollar train stations at places no one goes to).

The problem remains that Keynesian macro and every introductory text – except mine – pushes stimulus spending and low rates of interest, the perfect recipe for staying in the doldrums for a very long time.

And by structural reform, the proper meaning, which I assume is the same as Peter’s, is to let the economy adjust so that we are producing value-adding goods and services that will actually make a profit in the market. And if we do that, strangely enough, it will also add to the economy’s capacity to provide higher levels of public spending, even though it is a smaller proportion of total output.

Free speech as an economic principle

This is John Stuart Mill discussing freedom of speech as an economic issue in his Principles of Political Economy (1848), in my view the best single text on economics ever written. Freedom of speech, as he writes in the passage below, is a crucial element in allowing minds to wander where they will and consider all kinds of ideas and alternatives, and then to debate freely each and every one of the various considerations that different individuals might have. Without such freedom of thought, an economy cannot prosper. What is specially interesting are the examples from his time where different ideas have been suppressed. It would almost entirely be the reverse opinions that might be suppressed today.

The notion, for example, that a government should choose opinions for the people, and should not suffer any doctrines in politics, morals, law, or religion, but such as it approves, to be printed or publicly professed, may be said to be altogether abandoned as a general thesis. It is now well understood that a régime of this sort is fatal to all prosperity, even of an economical kind: that the human mind when prevented either by fear of the law or by fear of opinion from exercising its faculties freely on the most important subjects, acquires a general torpidity and imbecility, by which, when they reach a certain point, it is disqualified from making any considerable advances even in the common affairs of life, and which, when greater still, make it gradually lose even its previous attainments….

Yet although these truths are very widely recognized, and freedom both of opinion and of discussion is admitted as an axiom in all free countries, this apparent liberality and tolerance has acquired so little of the authority of a principle, that it is always ready to give way to the dread or horror inspired by some particular sort of opinions. Within the last fifteen or twenty years, several individuals have suffered imprisonment, for the public profession, sometimes in a very temperate manner, of disbelief in religion; and it is probable that both the public and the government, at the first panic which arises on the subject of Chartism or Communism, will fly to similar means for checking the propagation of democratic or anti-property doctrines. In this country, however, the effective restraints on mental freedom proceed much less from the law or the government, than from the intolerant temper of the national mind; arising no longer from even as respectable a source as bigotry or fanaticism, but rather from the general habit, both in opinion and conduct, of making adherence to custom the rule of life, and enforcing it, by social penalties, against all persons who, without a party to back them, assert their individual independence. (Mill ([1871] 1921): 940)

Did you make it this far? Not everyone finds Mill all that easy to read, but once you get the rhythm there is no one like him anywhere.

Entrepreneurship in one lesson

This is from a French soldier’s view of US soldiers in Afghanistan. Unexpectedly entirely positive. Here I only put up this passage to explain what entrepreneurship looks like.

And combat? If you have seen Rambo you have seen it all — always coming to the rescue when one of our teams gets in trouble, and always in the shortest delay. That is one of their tricks: they switch from T-shirt and sandals to combat ready in three minutes. Arriving in contact with the enemy, the way they fight is simple and disconcerting: they just charge! They disembark and assault in stride, they bomb first and ask questions later — which cuts any pussyfooting short.

It is the only managerial style that works. Of course, it won’t work in areas which are funded by the public sector, where profitability and adding value are never a consideration. But in the private sector, if a business is left alone to get on with its business, this is how it is done.