Reforming IR

This really could not be better said. From The Australian

In a separate development yesterday, the Coalition’s workplace relations spokesman, Eric Abetz, pledged that an Abbott government would not introduce any legislative changes to the operation of penalty rates, a move that was also aimed at negating Labor and union claims that the pay of workers would be cut by the Coalition.

Senator Abetz said penalty rates would remain the ‘province of the independent umpire, the Fair Work Commission’.

If they use the Commission properly and restructure the law there is little more than could be asked and there is little more they need to do. The Fair Work Act has been a disaster and needs to go but it has to be gotten rid of with a great deal of care and good sense. But they need to leave the Fair Work Commission in place. I am encouraged that this really could become one of the great reforming governments of Australian history.

Incompetence, extravagance and an inability to properly plan

If ever there has been an example of the incompetence, extravagance and an inability to properly plan by the Gillard Government, this is it. They promised every high school student in Australia a computer and now find they cannot even remotely afford it. And this is today’s front page story in The Age!

THE federal government’s scheme providing high school students with laptop computers is on the brink of collapse, leaving parents with hefty bills and educators with a chaotic start to the school year.

Schools are already telling parents they must lease approved laptops for pupils this year, at a cost of hundreds of dollars. Some are telling students to bring their own computers, raising a raft of problems around internet capacity, security and provision of software, as well as placing pressure on low-income families.

They make a commitment to some sounds-good proposition, find they cannot afford it and leave behind a mess for someone else to fix. It is their pattern. Their promises are worse than worthless; their promises will cost you big time when reality finally hits. That the NBN went down early in the midst of the floods in Queensland is another example how this government is leading us backwards at every turn.

Is the unemployment rate really 6.4%?

I’m about to do an interview on the Labour Force and unemployment. I guess with everyone away on holidays, it’s time for a few of us old stagers to be called upon to inform everyone about what’s going on while they’re at the beach.

So I’ve downloaded the Labour Force data which I almost never do any more and what a surprising set of data. Most interesting to me was that the participation rate has fallen from 65.8% as it was in November 2010 to 65.1% in November this year. This comes to a loss of 131,000 persons from the working world. Since these people have disappeared into the not-included-in-the-labour-force category, which usually means they have become discouraged workers, if we add them back in, the total number of unemployed is actually around 780,000. Much different again from the 650,000 officially recorded.

Had the participation rate stayed constant, the unemployment rate would now be something like 6.4%, very different from the published 5.3%. Feels more accurate as well, since that is why the RBA is bringing interest rates down. They know just as every business survey has been showing. The economy is into a downwards turn. 2013 will be a year of surprises, I feel, and after the Americans go over their fiscal cliff who knows what the New Year may bring.

Slowing economy boosts case for public spending cut

The headline in The Australian this morning.

Slowing economy boosts case for Reserve rate cut

Data released yesterday show the dismal turn in the Australian economy. Things have been in a downwards descent for quite some time as data from business surveys, and especially my ACCI Survey of Investor Confidence, have been showing. You can hide it for a while but with the continuing switch from private to public direction of economic activity, the effect is to lower per capita real incomes. It’s slow and decremental but it catches up with you in the end. And this, goodness knows, is not the end.

Meanwhile the government is on its madcap chase to balance the budget using every approach but the right one. If you balance the budget by killing off private sector growth (monthly corporate tax payments, anyone?) you are missing the point since budget balance and higher public outlays is a pretty sorry outcome.

Rates will probably be cut since everyone now expects it but I suspect Glenn Stevens will be very reluctant to have done it. Lower interest rates are a problem, not part of the cure. Lower public spending, however, that would work but macro being the way it is, how is anyone ever going to find out?

A Spectator debate in which I will not be a spectator

I am to participate in a debate sponsored by the Australian Spectator on November 14 next week in Sydney. The resolution to be debated on the night will be: “Foreign Investment is Out of Control”. Those in support of the motion are apparently well known personalities to our north. There is a Sydney radio presenter, Alan Jones; a Queensland politician, Bob Katter; and a writer of children’s fiction, Rhys Muldoon.

Countering this ridiculous notion will be Peter Costello who will win this on his own, Tim Wilson of the IPA and myself. Personally I don’t even know where the other side will find arguments to support this idea but I will dutifully show up on the night to hear what they have to say and explain to them their folly. You can find a brief article on this debate here.

Should you be interested in attending, and it sounds like it will be quite a fun night, here are the details for booking:

Wednesday 14 November

Sydney Masonic Centre, 66 Goulburn St, Sydney

Doors open 6pm for 7pm start

$50* ticket $40* ticket for Spectator Australia subscribers

To book
Visit: http://www.spectator.co.uk/foreign
Call: 1300 438 849

Postal payments to: PO Box 1946, Neutral Bay, NSW 2089
Cheques to be made payable to The Spectator

*Excludes booking fee

Any suggestions on what to say on the night would be gratefully received.

Why doesn’t anybody mention Keynes any more?

The Chinese economy is in descent, not quite free fall but close enough.

AUSTRALIAN mining companies and the federal Treasury face fresh pressure as China’s already sluggish economy heads for a further slowdown.
The latest surveys of China’s manufacturing industry showed that activity has continued to ease as the world’s second-largest economy faces a seventh consecutive quarter of slowing growth.

China’s biggest problem remains the continuing malaise in the critical export sector where growth has slowed dramatically due to poor economic conditions in its largest market, Europe, as well as the US, as wages and other costs in China continue to climb.

The closely watched official purchasing managers index (PMI), which covers large businesses, remained in negative territory at 49.8, up from 49.2 in August — its second month in negative territory. Any result below 50 shows activity decreasing.

A parallel HSBC survey of small and medium businesses saw the 11th contraction in a row with a result of 47.9.

Both results were lower than market expectations, and HSBC’s export sub-index hit a 42-month low.

You never hear Keynes mentioned any more, except maybe by me. Wherever we had these Keynesian stimuli, the result has been abysmal. The Australian economy, tied as its success was to Chinese growth, is also melting. The laughable attempt to bring the budget into surplus – highly destructive as well since it will be mostly attempted on the tax revenue side – is now matched by a desperate desire to see interest rates come down. We have a low official unemployment rate but that’s because so much of it is driven by public spending unsupported by value adding economic activity. It can’t last. As the front page article in The Australian points out:

Although the jobless rate is low, domestic pressures are building. The employer lobby Australian Industry Group’s latest business survey, released yesterday, shows that for the seventh consecutive month, a majority of manufacturing firms are contracting.

Contracting industry and they are rushing to balance the budget! Shame this never occurred to them in 2008.

Radio Australian Interview: I’ve just done a Radio Australia interview on Ross Garnaut’s comments last night where he said that Australia’s salad days had gone and our dog days have begun. His comment, from last night’s Lateline:

I said now we’re living in the salad days. In the salad days, ordinary economic policy looks good and good economic policies look stellar. But it won’t be very many years when the salad days turn into the dog days, when good economic policy looks terrible and ordinary economic policy looks in the dogs. . . .

Certainly the rhetoric from the Government about restraint in government expenditure is consistent with what’s required, and in fact in the last couple of years we’ve run very tight budgets by long historical standards.

But this has to be maintained now for quite a long period of time and I think lots of Australians haven’t assimilated that. We’ve got elements of the Australian community thinking that economic reform now is what gives more money to them.

And who’s his example for those who don’t appreciate the need for restraint, the Business Council. Wandering around the main town squares in Athens and Madrid ought to provide a better idea of who wants governments to keep spending money they no longer have.

Raiding super

Possibly the most intelligent document ever to come out of the Australian union movement was published in 1987 under the title, Australia Reconstructed. This did not make it on par with The Wealth of Nations, but as these things go – and perhaps there is a touch of nostalgia kicking in – by the standards of the labour movement today and its Parliamentary wing, it was the nearest thing there was to a union capitalist manifesto. My next five years were spent working to defeat its centralising intent but at least at its core was an acceptance that the market economy was not only here to stay but also had much to offer working people.

An important part of the Australia Reconstructed mentality (I can’t remember if it was part of the document) was the wish to spread superannuation throughout the working population, not restricting it as it was then to those employees an employer chose to provide superannuation to. The flaw in the proposal was that the entire cost of super was to be borne by employers and to cut a long story short we now have the Super Guarantee system in place that requires employers to put 9% of an employee’s wages cost into a superannuation fund.

Part of the argument against the super system that we put up at the time was that having such large funds that were both central and visible made them a target for governments to supplement their tax revenues. Generally up until now governments have been pretty good at leaving the system alone, partly from recognition that the savings generated are actually a good thing (not that it has created a dime’s worth of extra saving compared to how things might otherwise have gone), and partly because there is a third-rail element in messing with the retirement savings of the nation (not that anyone is better protected against poverty in old age than they were before). But today we have the Gillard Government, with its blind incoherence and social and economic incompetence as its most obvious characteristic, so all is different. They now wish to change the rules – only for the “wealthy”, of course – so that they can fund their deficits and balance their budgets without actually cutting back on their own spending, indeed with an intent to increase its level of outlays. Here is the context as reported in The Australian:

The federal government has been canvassing the industry for potential savings to meet its pledge of a budget surplus for 2012-13 amid collapsing tax revenue and a raft of spending programs in health, welfare and education.

Bill Kelty, the godfather of the superannuation system, the former ACTU Secretary, the one who didn’t go into Parliament, has been incensed. Well, sort of. From that same report:

BILL Kelty – a founding father of Australia’s superannuation system – has warned the Gillard government to stay away from tax changes to super in its search for savings and new revenue to meet the pledge of a budget surplus.

Mr Kelty said further changes to superannuation risked undermining confidence in the system at a time when years of volatile markets and low earnings had already made it vulnerable.

‘I think you’ve got to be very careful about changing the tax system and increasing it because there is increased uncertainty,’ Mr Kelty told The Weekend Australian.

‘These are decisions for a generation and when you start tampering with it then you don’t tamper with it for the day, you tamper with it for a generation.

‘So you don’t want to tamper too much with that and say in addition to the relative decline in earnings, what we are going to do is impose another adjustment process, that is a higher level of tax on it,’ he said. ‘That, I think, would be a very silly thing to do.’

I would not describe his words as a categorical rejection of the idea of tampering, not at all. If this is the strongest that will be said against the proposal to raid the super system, the certainty is that is what is about to happen. And the result, given the structures we have in place today, will be a worsening situation for those who wish to save for retirement and a reduction in our national savings which are instead to be squandered in areas favoured by the government which has shown hardly an ounce of economic judgment in anything it has done.

Another example of lazy Keynesian thinking

Lazy Keynesian thinking is found everywhere, even in places I least expect it. This is from Alan Mitchell’s column in today’s AFR.

The economic impact of the Gillard Government’s savings will depend on where they fall. If, as seems likely, it targets the tax breaks of higher-income earners, the impact will tend to fall on savings rather than consumption, and the effect on growth should be relatively short term.

So here is what understanding pre-Keynesian economics brings to you. If some economic change falls on savings it falls on investment and therefore will damage the economy. If it had actually fallen on consumption instead then the effect on the economy would have been almost negligible. Keynesian theory blots out most of an economist’s ability to understand the nature of the business cycle which is why hardly anyone saw the current slowdown coming.

Of course, to describe anything the Gillard Government does as a form of saving may be the most ludicrous part of all.

“Cranks and crazies”

Our Treasurer last week described the Republicans in the United States, using the precise and diplomatic language he is known for, as “cranks and crazies”. Apparently he thought the Republicans were not taking America’s economic problems seriously, unlike say Barack Obama who apparently thinks US debt is around $10 trillion when it is in fact $16 trillion. Anyway, our Wayne thought it was the Republicans who were endangering the future of the American economy by trying to get some kind of debt ceiling in place which is why he used the phrase he did. He was then fully supported by the Prime Minister herself.

I have therefore had a look at this in an article now found at Quadrant Online which comes with the title, “Our Own ‘Cranks and Crazies'”. It begins:

Let me start with this. The justification for the mining tax was to ensure that the entire community would benefit from the minerals boom, the implication being that selling resources bestows no return to the rest of us outside the extractive industries and therefore requires a tax to share the wealth. But with the mining boom about to recede we are being told that, as a direct result, we will all have to get used to a lower standard of living. Absolutely right, but just as the loss of the mining boom has reduced everyone’s living standards, the boom, while it lasted, drove them higher.

Alas, our Prime Minister and her Treasurer were clueless about how we all benefit from growth, even in a single sector remote from our lives, and accordingly peddled one of the most ignorant and pernicious of all socialist memes: the resources of the nation belong to the people. The consequences of their tenure in office will be to our collective detriment for years to come as investors spurn putting their money into Australia, lest Labor return to the Treasury benches once again.

And this is the final para in which I focus on our Prime Minister and her Treasurer:

From the start they have never had much idea about what should be done and what needs doing. They have followed the socialist path of least resistance: re-empowering unions, spending money they don’t have, and because they have mismanaged our finances, leaving Australia literally defenceless in an increasingly dangerous world. The surest sign of Gillard and Swan’s poor judgment is that they can unselfconsciously go about calling others the very names most appropriately applicable to themselves.

If you would like to see what goes in the middle, you can read the whole article here.

Final deficit almost double shortfall originally predicted

The Government must be thinking about a March election, or even sooner, because they cannot possibly be serious that they will present a budget in May. Their latest fiscal horrors from The Australian:

WAYNE Swan has vowed deeper cuts to turn the budget around and post a surplus after last financial year’s deficit doubled to $43.7 billion from its original forecast 15 months ago.

Plunging company tax receipts contributed to the size of the deficit, slumping $876 million in the final two months of 2011-12.

The 2011-12 budget outcome, released by the Treasurer today, reveals a minor improvement in the final numbers compared to the May budget forecasts, with the underlying cash deficit coming in $661 million higher at $43.7 billion from $44.4 billion.

But despite the update, the final deficit is almost double the shortfall originally predicted in the May 2011-12 budget, when Mr Swan forecast a $22.6 billion deficit.