Author Archives: lawofmarkets

Mandatory free speech

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Ontario government’s free speech policy for schools a good first step. This should be the easiest law ever to obey since it should be happening automatically and already.

Call it another promise made, promise kept by the Ford government. Although it’s sad the promise ever had to be made.

I’m talking about the pledge to have every university and college across the province adopt a free speech policy by Jan. 1, 2019.

“Colleges and universities should be places where students exchange different ideas and opinions in open and respectful debate,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in August when he gave the schools the deadline.

The premier is right, that is what colleges and universities should be, unfortunately too many have been willing to shut out ideas they don’t like. Mostly conservative ones.

So far the schools, all 20 publicly funded universities and 24 colleges, appear to be on track for meeting the deadline.

Baby, it’s Hot Outside

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Of all things, just been sitting in my favourite cafe and what do they play but the world’s most notorious Christmas song, Baby it’s Cold Outside. But let’s face it, that might work in America but it just won’t do for us here in Australia. I have therefore adjusted the words to suit. And if climate change becomes a reality, perhaps this is what they’ll have to sing everywhere.

Baby it’s Hot Outside

I really can’t stay (Baby it’s hot outside)
I gotta go away (Baby it’s hot outside)
This evening has been (Been hoping that you’d dropped in)
You do inspire (I’ll hold your hands they’re just like fire)
My mother will start to worry (Beautiful what’s your hurry?)
My father will be pacing the floor (Listen to the air conditioner roar)
So really I’d better scurry (Beautiful please don’t hurry)
Well maybe just a half a drink more (I’ll put some music on while I pour)
The neighbors might think (Baby it’s bad out there)
Say what’s in this drink? (No cabs to be had out there)
I wish I knew how (Your eyes are like starlight now)
To break this spell (I’ll take your hat, your hair looks swell) (Why thank you)
I ought to say no, no, no sir (Mind if move in closer?)
At least I’m gonna say that I tried (What’s the sense of hurtin’ my pride?)
I really can’t stay (Baby don’t hold out)
Baby it’s hot outside

Ah, you’re very pushy you know?
I like to think of it as opportunistic
I simply must go (Baby it’s hot outside)
The answer is no (But baby it’s hot outside)
The welcome has been (How lucky that you dropped in)
So nice and cool (why don’t you try the pool)
My sister will be suspicious (Gosh your lips look delicious!)
My brother will be there at the door (Waves upon a tropical shore)
My maiden aunt’s mind is vicious (Gosh your lips are delicious!)
Well maybe just a cigarette more (Never such a heat wave before) (And I don’t even smoke)

I’ve got to get home (Baby it’s 40 degrees out there!)
You’ve really been grand, (I feel when I touch your hand)
But don’t you see? (How can you do this thing to me?)
There’s bound to be talk tomorrow (Think of my life long sorrow!)
At least there will be plenty implied (If you caught heat stroke and died!)
I really can’t stay (Get over that old out)
Baby it’s hot
Baby it’s hot outside

Okay fine, just another drink then
That took a lot of convincing!

And in case you are unsure of the tune, I am providing two more traditional versions so that you can sing along with the lyrics found above.

And in case you are worrying about the politically incorrect implications, of the song, there is also this.

The parties of the left are now the parties of the wealthy

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The ideological differences across the world were never better displayed than here: Financial Times Person of the Year: George Soros. And just to make sure it’s not a backhanded award because of his creepy and harmful influence, here are the FT’s own words:

The Financial Times’s choice of Person of the Year is usually a reflection of their achievements. In the case of Mr Soros this year, his selection is also about the values he represents.

He is the standard bearer of liberal democracy and open society. These are the ideas which triumphed in the cold war. Today, they are under siege from all sides, from Vladimir Putin’s Russia to Donald Trump’s America.

And if you have any doubts about which side of the fence the FT is on, then go through this at CNN: George Soros: Billionaire philanthropist the far right loves to hate.

Hatred never enters into it but fear does. The parties of the left are now the parties of the wealthy and super-wealthy. They have the money, the media and the Marxism, a formidable combination, but for the moment at least they do not have the momentum. For a different perspective from the FT, there is this: Soros an enemy of democracy. From which:

His ideological zeal to push for an open society that seeks to undermine national sovereignty and run roughshod over the will of the citizens knows no boundaries.

And he’s hardly the only one of his kind. The pages of the Financial Times are filled with them.

Putting down a mad dog was the right thing to do

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You have to trust someone’s judgement on issues one knows near nothing about, and David Archibald is one of my go-to people on foreign policy. He has now written this article, Mattis was no good, which begins like this.

American Thinker readers were warned about General Mattis over a year ago in this article.  Briefly, Mattis was and remains a supporter of global warming.

The issue of global warming continues to be a reliable and simple litmus test.  If someone believes in global warming, then you can be sure he is a globalist who loathes Western civilization.

Then there was his support for the Islamist Anne Patterson, loathed by the Egyptian people for her support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Then there was the matter of allowing one of his underlings to throw Fox Company, of Task Force Spartan in Afghanistan in 2007, under a bus so he could advance his own career.

And on it continues. He had me at global warming, the surest dye marker for incompetence and a sell-out for our Western way of life. The rest just adds more detail and substance. A great name “Mad Dog”, but past that happy to see him on his way.

The one certainty is that there is no certainty

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With the Deep State found at every turn, it is hard to know where to look for sense on PDT’s pull-out of American forces from Syria. The one person whose views I therefore most wished to hear were those of Caroline Glick at The Jerusalem Post. She has now published this, which the headline writer described as: TRUMP’S DECISION TO PULL FORCES OUT OF SYRIA HAS UPSIDES. In the article itself, she is more positive, with this her conclusion which she links to Nikki Haley’s speech to the UN last week:

By abandoning the anti-Israel fake “peace process” and striking out on a new path based on reality, and by walking away from Obama’s pro-Iran policies in Syria and Lebanon and backing Israel in its efforts to defeat its enemies, the Trump administration is demonstrating what pro-Israel really means. So long as it is true to its word, Israel is safer and stronger for it.

OK. But there are two sides to this as she makes clear.

For the past two years, the Trump administration has continued implementing Obama’s pro-Iran policy in Syria. Efforts to change the US mission have failed, largely due to Pentagon opposition. During his visit to Israel in August, National Security Advisor John Bolton said that the mission of US forces had been expanded to block Iran from asserting control over Syria. But since the administration didn’t request a new mandate from Congress, the mission remained officially what it has been since 2014.

It is true that on the ground, the US forces in Syria do far more than fight ISIS. They block Iran from controlling the Syrian border with Iraq and so prevent Iran from controlling a land route from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea.

US forces also have blocked Turkey from taking over Syrian Kurdistan and have prevented Turkish President Recep Erdogan from carrying out his pledge to destroy the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces. If the US chooses not to arm and supply the SDF, once the Americans leave, Syria’s Kurds – America’s only loyal allies there – will either have to cut a deal with Russia and Iran or face Turkey alone.

US forces in Syria also block Russia from taking over Syria’s oil fields. On February 7, forty US Special Forces troops blocked hundreds of Russian mercenaries from seizing the Conoco oil field on the eastern side of the Euphrates.

Finally, US forces in Syria act as a deterrent against Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah aggression against Israel. With US forces on the ground, they fear that provoking a war with Israel will be tantamount to going to war against America. With US forces out of Syria, their fear of attacking Israel will diminish.

Nevertheless, she still sees the positives, and it is quite striking that the Israeli reaction generally has been so quiet. It is the same people who oppose a border wall in the US who are also the ones most critical of Trump’s decision. The one certainty is that there is no certainty, no matter what you do.

FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS: There is an apparent assumption that PDT just does what he does with no groundwork and preparation. However, as noted by Baa Humbug in the comments: Saudi Crown Prince MbS Sends Replacement Troops To Defend Kurds in Syria…. There is also this to dwell on if it doesn’t turn your stomach: THE NEW YORK TIMES WAS AGAINST WAR IN SYRIA BEFORE IT WAS FOR IT.

Almost a year ago, on Jan. 19, 2018, that same editorial board raked the president over the coals for even daring to continue America’s policy of military adventurism. The Times expressed concern that more American troops beyond the 2,000 initially deployed could soon be sent overseas in a mission without any clear goals. “Syria is a complex problem. But this plan seems poorly conceived, too dependent on military action and fueled by wishful thinking,” The Times said.

Who would depend on these people to protect our way of life?

The political economy of interest rate adjustments

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Interest rate adjustments are a dangerous economic tool, both when they go down too far and when they are raised too high. Central bank interest rate policies, drenched as they are in the incompetent conclusions from Keynesian macro, are about as sensible as the rest of Keynesian theory, but in any case the underlying policy seems more political than economically driven. As, for example, the Fed is raising rates right now in the midst of a bear market.

Even so, I cannot say that the effect won’t ultimately be positive, in the same way that Volker’s vast increases in rates in the first years of the Reagan presidency set up the economic recovery that followed. That may well have not been his intent, but it was the consequence. But whatever else may be the case, you may be sure that is not the intent of those whose hands are on the levers of interest rate policy at the moment. With this in mind, let me draw to your attention the following sent to me by a mate whose daily bread is earned from paying very close attention to these kinds of things.

Context, mainstream economic theory – which the fed conducts policy by – directly predicts (and it is the outright stated purpose of the policy) that raising rates is intended to slow the economy down (say, for the purpose of “combating inflation”).

Since 1981 onwards (from Reagan), there have been 62 federal reserve decisions to raise rates (i.e a deliberate policy attempt to slow the economy down), in aggregate raising rates by 46.5%.

Of those, 47 of the decisions (75.8%) were under Republican presidents, only 15 (24.1%) under Democrat. That is a ratio of ~3x more likely to be rate rises (i.e 3x more likely a deliberate policy attempt to slow the economy down) under a Republican than a Democrat.

By value terms (noting larger moves are expected to have greater impact than small moves), 82.1% of all rate rises by aggregate value have occurred under Republican presidents. That is more to 5x relative headwind/ negative policy impact (in the direction of policy intent to slow the economy down) for Republicans than what Democrats have faced.

Potential reason 1: The economy is generally stronger under Republicans due to (relative to Democrats) more pro growth policy stances. Due to that stronger underlying economy, the fed has to raise rates to slow down the growth and “control inflation” (etc etc).

Potential Reason 2: Conspiracy theory-esque political bias from the Deep State (of which the Fed is central). At one level it is just about harming electoral prospects of Republicans. At a deeper level of a deep state theory, it would be about not letting the public see the full benefits of the (relatively) freer market.

Potential Reason 3: ??? It is hard to manufacture any reason (using mainstream theory as the assumed driver of the rate rise decision) from this pattern of rate rise decisions that makes the Republicans look bad/ Democrats look good in any way…..

Note – analysis is by the rate rises only, doesn’t consider the cuts side. There has been a general bias to cuts over all presidents (except Trump).

If you would like to see a classical discussion of interest rates, you can either go back to the nineteenth century literature or you could go through Chapters 17 and 18 of the third edition of my Free Market Economics.

From the Wall to Wall Street

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TRUMP VOWS VETO OVER WALL!
FRUSTRATION BUILDS
SHUTDOWN LOOMS

Meanwhile, in The Oz, this is the headline story in the paper – allies warn as Trump pulls troops out of Syria – but it’s no news anywhere else, including at The Jerusalem Post, where the top story at the moment is “SODASTREAM TO OPEN FACTORY IN GAZA”. In fact, you can already barely find the story in the online edition of The Oz.

Then in the realm of manufactured news, we have this:

GOODBYE 23,000: STOCKS CONTINUE ROUT...
DOW -464...
WORST MONTH IN DECADE...
WIRE: Recession near? 

I am hardly the only one who wonders whether this is an anti-Trump fit of hysteria, in part through a Deep State effort in selling off shares, and in part through the Fed having raised rates for the seventh time since Trump was elected. They really are out to get him, and they are utterly indifferent who ends up paying the price.

Plenty of laughs and few rules

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A depraved story – Woody Allen’s Secret Teen Lover Speaks: Sex, Power and a Conflicted Muse Who Inspired ‘Manhattan’ – but this is the best bit.

Despite the initial shock of jealousy, Engelhardt says she grew to like Farrow over the course of the “handful” of three-way sex sessions that followed at Allen’s penthouse as they smoked joints and bonded over a shared fondness for animals. (“When Mia was there, we’d talk about astrology, and Woody was forced to listen,” she laughs.)

They sat around talking about astrology!!! But come on. Woody was born on December 1 and look at what it says:

A Sagittarius born on December 1 is theatrical and flamboyant, with all-too-human flaws. They use their sense of humor to showcase their bubbly personality. They are impulsive, sometimes to their detriment. Despite warnings from loved ones, these feisty people are determined to live life on their terms. That generally means plenty of laughs and few rules.

As for her, whatever her start, she seems to have come out all right. Must have been in her stars.

MY OWN BIRTHDAY HOROSCOPE: The science is settled:

You are unpredictable and friendly, thus a charming companion, especially when it’s time to party. At the same time however, duty is duty and this is often shown in your persistence and determination to make things right.

Here’s the rest:

People born on this date are loving, loyal and aiding of those around them and this makes them a great go to help when others have obstacles of all kinds. They appreciate confidence and have a great sense of justice therefore they try to surround themselves with people who carry the same values as them. They are amicable but not extremely social because they are often put off by immaturity and vanity. They enjoy spending time in peaceful places, away from noise and disruptions.

Positive traits: Relentless, neat and orderly, these natives have great self control. Capricorn people are usually active task achievers but also very calm and accommodating persons. Those born under this sign are also diligent and honest. They tackle everything they have to do with great attention and always having in mind the people around them.

Negative traits: Narrow minded and often prone to mood swings, these natives are hard to deal with at times. They are fixed in their ways and when things show the slightest sign of unpredictability they transform themselves altogether. They also have suspicious natures and are reticent to change although once things are being explained to them properly and they accustom themselves to novelty, they are quick to promote it everywhere.

Love and Compatibility

Lovers born on this date are dependable and romantic. They seek for a lifetime partner to whom they can commit and create a balanced and accomplishing relationship. They are attracted to enthusiastic and imaginative people that are as reliable as they are. You can conquer the heart of Capricorn if you are trustworthy and energetic. When they are single they are in no hurry to enter a relationship if they don’t feel it’s the right thing to do, they focus instead on their own self development.

They’re a gentle and reserved lover that would rather suffer from unrequited love than fight to win the heart of the one they love. Their relationships are likely to grow on friendships as they need time to know the person that stays beside them. Despite the fact that they are friendly and a generally happy person it is quite difficult for them to settle for someone, probably because they are expecting things to happen instead of making them happen. They are most compatible with those born on 1st, 2nd, 10th, 11th, 19th, 20th, 28th and 29th.

People born on this date are most attached to the other two earth signs: Taurus and Virgo as they tend to share the same vision of life. In love, Capricorn is in a constant search for an attractive and creative companion who can enrich their life and the best to offer them this is the native in Cancer. The least compatible with people born on January 16 are those born under Sagittarius. As for the rest of compatibilities between the other star signs and Capricorn, you know what they say, stars predispose but people dispose.

Well, I am married to a Taurus and we are heading towards our 40th! But as I like to remind people, being a Capricorn means one is generally sceptical which means we don’t take astrology seriously.

He may have half the country with him but it’s the wrong half

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Quite a day for news. First the economy.

FED RAISES RATES; DEFIES TRUMP

MARKETS PLUNGE

The aim is to sabotage the American economy. No one in the deep state, whether they are in the “public service” or George Soros, will be affected. I think higher rates are a positive over the longer term, but everything is now aimed at the next election in 2020. Instability is the aim, so we shall see.

Then there’s this.


WALL STALL…
TRUMP IN RETREAT…
Judge blocks asylum crackdown…
Chinese nationals smuggled across U.S. border in ultralight plane…
GALLUP: Government, immigration top problems…

The Republicans in Congress could have built the wall and at more or less negligible cost. Will not do it. Border protection is the last thing on their minds.

And if you want more transformative news on the day, not even mentioned at Drudge. From The BBC.

Syria conflict: US officials withdraw troops after IS ‘defeat’

US troops in Syria on 4 November 2018
Image captionAround 2,000 US troops are believed to be stationed in Syria

The Trump administration says US troops are being withdrawn from Syria, after the president said the Islamic State (IS) group had been “defeated”.

I can only hope this is an accurate reflection of circumstances on the ground. The limited coverage in the American media might even mean this is a positive story that could even reflect well on the President.

 

How to turn A Life Untold into a living personal history

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What I know about my grandparents today are hit and miss memories of people who were already really old by the time I entered into their lives (although around 25 years younger than I am right now). What I truly wish is that I could have somehow captured their life stories while they were still amongst us. Very late in the piece I was able to video my parents and get them to tell at least some of their own stories before a camera. It wasn’t systematic and it wasn’t comprehensive, but at least for them and for posterity we have that.

And while some may think this is shameless advertising, I will bring this to your attention because my son has put together a business idea so remarkable that it would be a major error of omission not to let you know this business of his exists as we head into the Christmas-present season. And what we have here is something that will be as much a potential treasure for those who receive the gift as it is for those who give the gift to others.

My son has begun a business in which anyone at all can be guided through a process at the end of which they have written their own entire life story which has then been published as a book with as many photos and artefacts from the past included as those who are actually doing the writing have the presence of mind to include. Everyone, it is said, has one great story in them. Most people do not know how to get that story down onto paper. This is how it can be done. And if those to whom you give this gift are not happy to do the writing themselves, this will provide you with the opportunity to sit with them, you at the keyboard, and hear them tell their own life story while you record it for yourself, and for every descendant who will be forever grateful for having these details for them to know.

So much of the problem is that we live in a present that we think will be largely unchanged only a few years from now. Nothing, and I do mean nothing, is less true than that. Everything will change and what is commonplace now will become a precious recollection of memories of time past. This is a present you will never regret giving, and which everyone who receives this gift will see the opportunity it has presented to them.

The business is A Life Untold, with their web address here. I have read the many letters my son has received from people all across the world who have completed their own autobiographies and are happy beyond imagination that they have been given this opportunity to tell their story to their children and their wider family.

For many it may be the best present they ever gave and for as many others it may be the best present they have ever received.