Realism in Paris!

More realism from Paris.

Britain and other rich countries face demands for $3.5 trillion (£2.3 trillion) in payments to developing nations to secure a deal in Paris to curb global warming. Developing countries have added a clause to the latest draft of the text under which they would be paid the “full costs” of meeting plans to cut emissions.

That’ll work. Even John Kerry was almost made to seem a man of sense:

The night saw an ugly brawl as US secretary of state John Kerry threatened that developed countries, including the US, would walk out of the agreement if it held up the wall of differentiation or if it was asked to commit to a road-map or a goal to deliver on its financial obligations in the Paris agreement. “You can take the US out of this. Take the developed world out of this. Remember, the Earth has a problem. What will you do with the problem on your own?” he said behind closed doors in negotiations to other ministers on the second revised draft of the Paris agreement.

He added, “We can’t afford in the hours we are left with to nit-pick every single word and to believe there is an effort here that separates developed countries from developing countries. That’s not where we are in 2015. Don’t think this agreement reflects that kind of differentiation.”

The debt and deficits everywhere make action on climate – that is, you known, tearing down our existing power grid while giving trillions to others – a bit unaffordable. So here’s the line up of issues that have delayed the agreement, which boils down to everyone demanding that someone else pays while they receive:

1. Should developed countries have a legal obligation to deliver finances against a road-map
2. Should developing countries that do not have historical responsibility for emissions also contribute to climate flows
3. Should the burden sharing in the agreement be based on self-differentiation based on current economic capacities or on both, historical emissions and current economic conditions
4. Should the actions of developing countries be linked, even if weakly, to the provision of finance and technology or should they be treated as par with developed countries during next ratchet up of emission reduction commitments
5. Should there be a periodic review of delivery of finance and technology by developed world or not
6. Should the long term goal of the agreement unambiguously be to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 degree by 2100 or should the agreement refer hedge on this goal
7. Should poor and vulnerable countries continue to hold rights to file for damages and liability against permanent loss and damage caused due to climate change

The only climate change there has been has been in the climate of opinion within the populations of developed economies.

Down memory lane

Remembrance of things past, dead, buried and cremated recalled by Tim Blair.

Remember when Malcolm Turnbull vowed to explain everything?

You build confidence by explaining, as I said earlier, explaining what the problem is, making sure people understand it, and then setting out the options for dealing with it …

That’s the approach I have taken: Laying out what the issues are, getting the facts straight, explaining that and then presenting a path forward and then making the case for that path forward. My firm belief is that to be a successful leader in 2015 – perhaps at any time – you have to be able to bring people with you by respecting their intelligence in the manner you explain things.

Well, Turnbull’s government now seems to have moved on from that explaining phase:

Eyebrows were raised after the Turnbull government shifted its stance overnight when Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop signed up to a New Zealand-led declaration at the Paris climate summit backing the use of international carbon markets in tackling climate change.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott shunned the use of international carbon permits, once saying that: “money that shouldn’t be going offshore into dodgy carbon farms in Equatorial Guinea and Kazakhstan”.

But in a speech on Wednesday, Ms Bishop said: “We recognise that international carbon markets are a key part of the global effort to reduce emissions”.

Nobody explained this to Liberal MP Craig Kelly:

WHAT?

We’re going to start buying “international carbon permits” … ?

I must have ducked off to the bathroom when that was discussed in the partyroom, because I can’t recall any such discussions.

Surely this can’t be right?

Ignoring the evidence on climate

Mark Steyn’s description of events before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation really needs to be read to get some idea of just how dense our political class is and especially in the US. You get a better idea of where a Donald Trump comes from by reading his entire post since it must be as close to impossible for virtually anyone to have an impact on their government especially if they are as dense as this chap. Here we have Steyn’s description of how he and Judith Curry took on the US Senate in which its rudeness, not to mention their profound ignorance, is the issue that he finds the most incredible and despicable.

There is another kind of basic rudeness, which I have never experienced in a real parliament. If you’re moderating a panel discussion on C-SPAN with five panelists, it’s generally considered polite to distribute the questions broadly. In this case, the Democrats asked no questions of anyone other than their guy – Rear Admiral Titley. For example, there was some extensive discussion of the satellite record: They have the scientist who created and developed the satellite temperature record sitting at one end of the table: John Christy. This is a remarkable scientific accomplishment. Yet they directed all their questions on the subject to the bloke down the other end – Rear Admiral Titley, who knows no more about the satellite record than I do. This is like inviting Sir Isaac Newton to a hearing on gravity and then only asking questions of Mr Timeserver sitting next to him. It may represent the “decorum” of the Senate but in any other area of life it would be regarded as insufferably ill-mannered.

So by the time Senator Ed Markey turned up, I’d had enough of it. Markey is the Massachusetts guy (whom I discussed on the radio with Howie Carr yesterday afternoon) and he began by comparing Rear Admiral Titley to Galileo – at which point I threw up my arms. I would have let this twaddle go, except that Markey then went on to insult the three scientists on my right. And, as with so many of the staffer-insulated ignorant bullies of the Senate, he did so with no intention of letting them respond. Dr Judith Curry is a very brave woman who has withstood an extraordinary onslaught from the ugly misogynist types that climate alarmism attracts. She was not cowed by this know-nothing senator and she wished to respond, as she indicated discreetly.

Markey ignored her. Again, we’re way beyond the rules of the Senate here. In the rules of life, a gentleman does not insult a woman and then stand on parliamentary dignity to deny her a reply. If that’s the “decorum of the Senate”, then Senator Markey puts the dick in decorum. Nevertheless, with characteristic pomposity, he sought to use the Senate’s crappy rules to prevent those he’d abused from responding to his crude insults:

Markey must have been a little shocked when climatologist Judith Curry demanded to be able to respond to his testimony trying to discredit her views on climate science.

“I did not ask you a question,” Markey, a Democrat, retorted when Curry asked if she could respond to his testimony during a Senate hearing Tuesday on the science behind global warming.

“Why can’t she respond senator?” Conservative author and columnist Mark Steyn shot back at Markey. “You impugned her integrity. I think she’s entitled to…”

“I was basically called a ‘denier’ — that I’m denying science,” said Curry, a climate scientist at Georgia Tech University. “Did you read my written testimony?”

Markey sought to discredit Curry in his testimony by framing her as ignoring the evidence humans are putting the planet at risk. Curry was not happy with essentially being labelled a global warming “denier” and pushed back against the senator’s remarks.

“Are you aware the IPCC and the consensus has no explanation for the increase of ice in the Antarctic?” Curry said. “Are you aware that they have no explanation for the fact the rate of sea level rise from 1920 to 1950 was as large, if not larger, as it currently is?”

“Are you aware that temperatures have been warming for more than 200 years, and, that in the 20th Century, 40 percent of the warming occurred before 1950 when carbon dioxide was not a factor in the warming?” Curry continued.

Curry highlighted even more uncertainties among climate scientists many Democrats and environmentalists are loathe to admit. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has trouble explaining the recent “hiatus” in warming as well as the warming trend before the 1950s.

“Doctor, as I just said in my testimony — corroborated by Dr. Titley [another witness on the panel] — this is the warmest year ever recorded,” Markey shot back. “Last year was the warmest year ever recorded until this year. This was the warmest November ever recorded. October… was the warmest ever recorded.”

“You do not have an answer for that,” Markey said before going on to site Galileo and claim Curry was relying on “something that is perhaps God-made rather than dependent upon something that is man-made” and backed by science.

“Are you saying there’s no natural variability senator?” Steyn cut in. “There were alligators at the North Pole. What was that? Was that you in your SUV?”

Markey was forced to acknowledge the planet does in fact warm and cool on its own, but said natural variability is regional and the warming trend “is straight up.”

“Do you know what the little ice age was senator?” Steyn said to which Markey responded by claiming Boston’s record levels of snow are a product of global warming.

Perhaps it was ever thus, but then again, perhaps it was never before like this and we are the maddest generation who have ever lived.

O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us to see oursels as ithers see us!

The inability of the ABC to see itself as others see it continues to astonish. That Ray Martin is as blind as the rest makes you wonder where he and they think the middle of the road is. This from Tim Blair: the ABC clears itself of any left bias on Q&A or in his own chosen title, LUVVIES DECIDE. The story is from the Guardian Weakly: Q&A does not have ‘leftwing anti-Coalition bias’, leaked report finds.

The ABC’s Q&A program does not have a “left wing anti-Coalition bias” and is equally a challenge to both sides of politics, according to a draft report of the long-awaited review of Q&A obtained by Guardian Australia.

The key criticism by former prime minister Tony Abbott that the popular panel program hosted by Tony Jones is a “lefty lynch mob” was effectively dismissed by the report’s authors broadcaster Ray Martin and former managing director of SBS Shaun Brown. . . .

According to the the document seen by Guardian Australia, Martin and Brown studied six months’ worth of programs aired this year and concluded that while Q&A was a “challenge” to the Coalition government in 2015 it was also a challenge to the Labor government in 2012.

Far from finding that it had too many local panelists from the left, the report said the program needed to have more Greens and independents.

The title of this post, by the way, is the title of a poem by Robbie Burns which has the appropriate title, To a Louse.

The knives are coming out for Ted Cruz

Here’s a story reprinted in The Australian from The Times in London: Ted Cruz, the man more dangerous than Donald Trump. Why is he more dangerous? Because he doesn’t look as dangerous to those rubes known as voters and citizens. This is the subhead of the article which spells it out, “Senator Ted Cruz is the acceptable face of right-wing Republicanism — which is why he’s scarier than The Donald.” This is from the article itself.

One leading Republican did not join the anti-Trump chorus, however. He is the man that many in the Republican establishment fear is more likely to become their presidential candidate than Trump: the Texas senator Ted Cruz. Cruz moved to the top of the polls this week in Iowa — the first state to vote in the presidential nomination race. At a press conference given by Cruz on Tuesday I waited and waited for a repudiation of Mr Trump but none came. He did say that he disagreed with the specific “no Muslims” policy idea but praised Trump’s contribution to the debate. Cruz will undoubtedly be aware that 78 per cent of Republican voters think Islamic values are somehow un-American.

Cruz has been the most consistently pro-Trump of all of the Republicans running for the White House. He has already said that he’d happily give Trump the job of building that US-Mexico wall if he became president. Cruz has also said that he’d consider putting Trump in charge of renegotiating America’s trade arrangements with China.

What scares me, of  course, are authors as obtuse as this one. No clue what really does concern the rest of us. Meanwhile.

Congress to vote on right of Muslims to migrate…
Muhammad Ali Hits Trump and ‘Misguided Murderers’ Sabotaging Islam…
DONALD’S RIGHT — UK HAS MUSLIM NO-GO AREAS, SAY POLICE…

The actual headline of that first posted article is Congress to Consider Easing Passage into U.S. for Immigrants which gives a much different sense of what’s in mind than the headline at Drudge.

We have been warned

From The Oz today: Warning to quit sniping over Islam from former army chief.

The nation’s political leaders have been warned to put aside ­domestic politics and “sniping” in the vital debate about how the world should deal with Islamist terrorism.

As Malcolm Turnbull insisted “every single word” he said on the issue was based on advice from ASIO and the federal police so he did not “play into the hands” of terrorists, intelligence agencies expressed frustration with his predecessor Tony Abbott’s latest contribution to the issue.

Mr Abbott this week criticised the way some practised the Islamic faith, and suggested Islam was inferior to Western culture and needed to undergo a version of Christianity’s Reformation.

Peter Leahy, who commanded Australia’s army during the Iraq war and now advises on strategy, warned that the vital debate about how the world must deal with Islamist terrorism was at risk of being distorted by domestic politics and hijacked by “political snipers”.

Intelligence sources contacted by The Australian also expressed frustration at Mr Abbott’s ­remarks, saying they did little to aid the work of counter-terrorism agencies or law enforcement.

“The tone of Abbott’s remarks when he talks about all of Islam puts people off-side,’’ the source said. “It makes the job of agencies and law enforcement that much harder.’’

Mr Abbott stepped up his argument in a speech in Singapore, saying while the Saudis, Turks, Iranians, Russians, Americans and French had declared they wanted to destroy Islamic State, they all had other priorities. In the speech, published in The Australian today, Mr Abbott urged the French to use the “moral author­ity” due to them after last month’s attacks in Paris, in which 130 people died, for ­action he said was more urgent than ever.

The debate in Australia intensified as multi-billionaire Donald Trump, a frontrunner in the race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, called for a ban on the entry of Muslims into the US. Michael Fullilove, who heads the Lowy Institute think tank, said Mr Trump’s comments were “complete madness” and they should disqualify him from the presidential race.

Indonesian ambassador Nadjib Riphat Kesoema responded to Mr Abbott by telling the ABC: “This is a time when all nations must unite to defeat the scourge of terrorism. A rhetoric boasting of cultural and religious superiority over other cultures and religions is unhelpful to the cause and ­divisive.”

Professor Leahy, now head of Canberra University’s National Security Institute, told The Australian: “We need the debate. It must be had within the Islamic world and we need to have it in our communities so that we can understand and support Islam as it has these discussions.

“We need to be better ­informed about what’s going on. People who are trying to shut down the debate are not doing anybody any good.

“We need to avoid political ­polemicism, which we’ve seen too much of in our political discourse. The political snipers who try to shoot down every idea and every discussion do not do us any ­service because they throttle the debate and that diminishes our ability to understand what is happening. They are doing it for ­either party-political or personal reasons.”

His comments came after Mr Abbott called for Islam to “modernise from the kill-or-be-killed milieu of the Prophet Mohammed” and for Australians to stop being “apologetic” about the “clear superiority” of their Western culture. “We can’t remain in denial about the massive problem within Islam,” Mr Abbott said.

“Islam never had its own version of the Reformation and the Enlightenment or a consequent acceptance of pluralism and the separation of church and state. Cultures are not all equal. We should be ready to proclaim the clear superiority of our culture to one that justifies killing people in the name of God.”

Bill Shorten said Mr Abbott’s “inflammatory” comments could harm the work of intelligence agencies by undermining efforts to build a socially cohesive, mutually respectful society.

“Making assertions about cultural and religious superiority is entirely counter-productive,” the Opposition Leader said.

“It is time for Malcolm Turnbull to step up and pull Tony ­Abbott into line.”

Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh said Mr Abbott’s comments framed him as an “Australian ­Donald Trump”. As ministers said they wanted to avoid adding heat to the debate, Mr Turnbull said Mr Abbott was entitled to his opinion, but he would choose his own words and not one-liners.

“What we must not do is play into the hands of our enemies and seek to tag all Muslims with ­responsibility for the crimes of a few,” the Prime Minister said, adding he was “sure Tony agrees”.

“Most of the victims of these terrorists who defame Islam, who blaspheme God, most of the victims of these terrorists are other Muslims, and that’s a very important point to bear in mind,” Mr Turnbull added.

In a speech in Singapore, Mr Abbott, who has indicated he has no plans to retire from politics soon, said the “death cult as it’s now increasingly called” thrived on conflict and had to be ­destroyed. Doggedly sticking to his call for Western troops to fight alongside local forces, Mr Abbott backed the establishment of no-fly zones and safe havens.

He welcomed Barack Obama’s decision to send more special forces to take part in the war against Islamic State and Britain’s decision to bomb targets in Syria.

Labor MP Ed Husic, the only Muslim in federal parliament, cautioned against attempting to “Trumpify” the nation’s politics by “building up straw men in an effort to create a headline or be able to get a few extra minutes on TV”. “I actually beg conservative politicians to think carefully about what they are saying, ­because what they are saying to the public is that, ‘if you are of the Islamic faith, you are being hard-coded against Western values’, which is garbage,” Mr Husic told Sky News.

To which we add this story: Anti-terrorism raids in southwest Sydney which includes this:

The operation is an ongoing investigation of people suspected of being involved in domestic acts of terrorism, foreign incursions into Syria and Iraq, and funding of terrorist organisations.

Along with this: Grand Mufti: Tony Abbott’s Islamic reformation call plays into hands of extremists.

Not only do I not have any answers to all of this, I am not even sure I know the right questions to ask from which answers might be drawn.

“You’re effectively enforcing a state ideology”

The conclusion to Mark Steyn’s full testimony to the American Senate on climate change.

Climate alarmism is going nowhere. The two-decade global-warming pause, which no late 1990s climate model foresaw, led the public to doubt Big Climate’s confident predictions for the future. In response, federal bodies such as NOAA and NASA have adjusted the past to make the present appear hotter, and thus supposedly demonstrated that in fact there is no such “pause”. As a result, public opinion, which no longer trusts the Big Climate enforcers to tell them what the climate will be like in 2050, now no longer trusts them to tell them what it was like in 1950. A recent poll found that, notwithstanding the urgings of the President and the Secretary of State and others, only three per cent of Americans regard climate change as their major concern. Three per cent. There is your 97 per cent consensus, gentlemen.

At exactly the time when climate science needs to acknowledge its own failings, and the uncertainties of which Dr Curry speaks, and the inability of cartoon climatology and fraudulent gimmicks like the hockey stick to capture the complexities of the planet’s climate system, a narrow unrepresentative group of activists is demanding ever more brutal penalties against those who refuse to toe the line.

There is certainly a role for the state to play in this – not in prosecuting climate dissenters under RICO laws or in dumping taxpayer money into unwatchable propaganda musicals, or in having feckless lethargic judges in the District of Columbia reward serial plaintiffs for nuisance suits, but rather in standing firm for the most expansive definition of free speech, which is vital to scientific inquiry and sorely overdue in this particular field, and against the
abuse of government funds, which has been disastrous for it.

UPDATE: Steyn’s full statement to the Senate. A must read for anyone who feels in command of a subject. Anger and irony are an amazing combination with also having command of the facts. Via Rafe in the comments.

The media and Mr Trump

As big a problem as anything that now exists for the United States and the West in general is the far-left media who work hand and glove with the politicians of the left to pollute political debate. The genius of Donald Trump is that he is able to transcend the media and get through to the actual population in a way that no one else has previously been able to do.

Trump said it himself, the media are “unbelievably dishonest”. He says things that are so outrageous from the perspective of the left that they made him the formidable presence he is by publishing everything he said on the assumption that telling people what he says will be instantly discrediting. Yet finding out that Katrina Pierson, Donald Trump’s new press secretary, is black Tea Party activist, is quite astonishing and revealing.

Pierson says her alliance with The Donald is “perfect.”

“This is a nontraditional campaign,” the outspoken Republican and Dallas tea party activist said. “I can be a little bit more who I am. That’s what I mean when I say it’s like a perfect fit. [Trump’s] sort of not politically correct. He sort of calls it like he sees it. I’m kind of that way, too,”

Rush Limbaugh discussed all of this yesterday: How Donald Trump Plays the Media. If Trump is unique in what he is doing, non-transferable to anyone else for whatever reason, then it is a serious problem. But in the meantime he is changing the rules of the political process.

You Republicans, you can denounce Trump all day, all week, all month, and the Democrat Party and the media are still gonna say you laid the table for it. You can condemn Trump all you want, but it is not going to buy you any love or respect or admiration from the Drive-By Media and the Democrats. Now, folks, the conventional wisdom is that Trump is scum, that Trump is a reprobate, that Trump is dangerous, that Trump is obscene, Trump’s insane, Trump’s a lunatic, Trump’s dangerous, Trump’s got to go. Why join in with that phrase? Why join that crowd? We never fall in with conventional wisdom here. . . .

Meanwhile, I’ve never said anything like anything Trump says. But despite it all they can’t take him out. They can’t stop covering him. They can’t humiliate him. They can’t embarrass him. They can’t diminish his support. They’re powerless, and this has them in a panic. The media that can make-or-break anybody cannot touch Trump, and every time they try, all they do is make him bigger. They can’t explain this. They are frustrated to no end, and so are both political parties who rely on the media to be the great equalizer in all of this.

Nothing’s working. No matter what Trump says, the media is there, and every member of the media is there. Every network, every camera, every microphone is there. Last Friday night Trump was in Raleigh, North Carolina. Reuters lied. Reuters even tried lying to destroy Trump. They ran a story claiming that Trump’s performance and his appearance were shut down by Black Lives Matter protesters. MSNBC ran with it. . . .

Donald Trump is condemning ISIS. Donald Trump is condemning illegal immigration. Donald Trump is condemning a weak, stupid United States leadership. Over here, everybody else is not. They are condemning Donald Trump. In a political sense, Donald Trump, leading the presidential campaign, is the sole occupier of his position. He has no competition for it. Just in a political sense, that’s pretty brilliant positioning to me. He owns the media. They can’t stop talking about him.

And what’s it costing him?

Zero.

Unbelievably dishonest

The press is certainly unbelievable, and she is unbelievably good at getting the message across.

UPDATE: Katrina Pierson: Donald Trump’s new press secretary is black Tea Party activist.

Pierson says her alliance with The Donald is “perfect.”

“This is a nontraditional campaign,” the outspoken Republican and Dallas tea party activist said. “I can be a little bit more who I am. That’s what I mean when I say it’s like a perfect fit. [Trump’s] sort of not politically correct. He sort of calls it like he sees it. I’m kind of that way, too,”