A Carr bomb in Israel

I went into a second hand book shop at lunch and saw a copy of Australia’s Most Deadly Snakes and I immediately thought of Bob Carr. I then opened the book and the page I turned to showed a Red-Bellied Black Snake and again thought of Bob Carr. This particular snake can apparently be found in the swamplands of Eastern New South Wales, about which it said that when cornered behaves in a way that is mostly bluff, and I again for some reason thought of Bob Carr.

Why I kept thinking about Bob Carr I am not too sure, but perhaps it is because he has decided he no longer wishes to support Israel in its existential fight against its relentless and well-funded enemies and instead now supports Hamas. And perhaps it is also because on Sunday I went to see a documentary at the Jewish Film Festival – which I recommend to no one if they would like their peace of mind left undisturbed – that dealt with the efforts made to create a film record of the Nazi concentration camps just after they were overrun by the allies in 1945. I thought I had seen it all, but I hadn’t seen anything. I could only barely get through a documentary about the recording of the victims. An hour and a half of an actual film record could be watched by no one, at least no one with a human soul. No film was released at the time anyway because the British government preferred not to encourage anyone to support the Jews trying to get to Palestine, their entry being at the time blocked by the British. The thousands of feet of film was therefore simply left in storage until now. Must have been an early incarnation of Bob Carr who made the decision.

Meanwhile, Israel is filled with people who either were in those camps or are descendants of people who were in those camps. No one has persecuted Muslims for a thousand years, other than other Muslims. Jews have not been so lucky. Their memories are very real of just what might happen if they let their guard down even for a moment. Carr is worried that the Israelis have been building housing in Jerusalem in which people can live, both Arab and Jew. What a tragedy that must be. No modern atrocity can stand comparison with such actions. Good to see Bob Carr again on the side of the angels.

But here is part of the back story. The UN gave the Jews a bit of land in a decision in 1947. Not a lot. If left in peace in their own designated area, it might have come to not much more than the size of Singapore and Hong Kong in total together, most of it desert. But Arab armies attacked from the south, north and east in 1948 with the specific intent of killing every Jew they could while driving into exile those who survived. Nevertheless, the Jews were not overrun and when all the dust had settled, ended up with a larger piece of territory than they had originally been allocated. And this they defended when they were attacked in 1967, also by armies that had they prevailed, would have murdered every Jew they could. But again, the Jews prevailed and again they ended up with more territory than they originally had held, including the old city of Jerusalem.

Although Bob Carr is too stupid to understand this, there are reasons for the Israelis not to trust their Arab neighbours. Carr also does not seem to understand that the Israelis are intending to stay right where they are until some kind of settlement is reached to divide the area up into permanent borders. In the meantime, since the only policy Hamas seems to have is to drive the Israelis into the sea and kill every single Jew they can, we will have to wait until there is a more accommodating negotiating partner. In the meantime, whatever lack of progress there seems to be towards a final settlement, if one were to apportion blame, would be around 95% on the Arab side and 5% on the Israeli.

Now I can agree that the Jews who settled in this land – a land in which Jews have lived continuously without interruption for the past three thousand years – might have chosen somewhere else to go after the war. There are so many places that undoubtedly would have welcomed the millions of impoverished Jewish refugees who were desperate to find a place to settle in quiet and peace. Perhaps they could have found just such a place in one of the old and civilised states of Europe, perhaps the birthplace of Beethoven and Wagner (no doubt amongst your favourites, Bob), and would have found a home amongst people who would have welcomed them and taken them in and who the Jews knew they could trust and with whom they could live in perfect security. Why did the Jews not seek such a place of refuge, do you think, you big stupid ignorant fool? Sounds pretty good to you, I suppose, you dimwitted jerk of a supposed student of history as you are. Why didn’t the Jews do that?

So look Bob, we can all sympathise with the Palestinian people whose misfortune is to be cursed with such stupid and obtuse leaders – people similar to yourself, no doubt – who are unwilling to allow peace in their land. I was not a great sympathiser with Julia Gillard as Prime Minister, but I warmed to her unwavering personal support for Israel that was only overridden by you and that fellow dimwit Tanya and no doubt others who travel under Labor Party colours. I have followed your career and you have not made a single correct judgement in your entire political career on anything significant, not as Premier, not as foreign minister nor in your new role as an envoy of the Middle East. Your consistency in stupidity is astonishing, but at least it is consistent.

Business conditions jumped by a record amount in October

You never know what surprises are in store if you get the budget under control and encourage the private sector. Merely a straw in the wind but the direction is right. These are the results from the latest National Bank monthly survey.

BUSINESS conditions jumped by a record amount in October, hitting their highest level since early 2008 on the back of a strong start to the fourth quarter, according to a private survey.

National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey showed a sharp jump in business conditions — the largest monthly increase in the history of the survey — up 12 points on the index, to a reading of 13.

But NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the improvement may still be an aberration, considering the downward trend in business confidence.

The survey showed business confidence continuing to erode, as firms remain uncertain over near-term demand. The index dropped 1 point to a reading of 4, its lowest level since a pre-election jump in mid-2013.

But looking beyond monthly volatility, business conditions still came in with a reading above the long-term trend, Mr Oster said.

While confidence levels vary greatly across industries, the services sector has been the most consistently optimistic.

Mr Oster said despite consumer caution and rising unemployment, it was particularly surprising to see retail conditions lift strongly, up 15 points, albeit to still low levels.

The mining sector also saw an improvement in both confidence and conditions, recording the largest jumps in both, but still remained the sector with the lowest overall conditions reading.

The large jump in business conditions pointed to a strong start to the fourth quarter, Mr Oster said.

Krugman’s intro to The General Theory

This is Brad De Long’s edited version of Paul Krugman’s 2006 introduction to The General Theory:

In the spring of 2005 a panel of “conservative scholars and policy leaders” was asked to identify the most dangerous books of the 19th and 20th centuries…. Charles Darwin and Betty Friedan ranked high on the list. But The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money did very well, too. In fact, John Maynard Keynes beat out V.I. Lenin and Frantz Fanon. Keynes, who declared in the book’s oft-quoted conclusion that “soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil,” [384] would probably have been pleased.

Over the past 70 years The General Theory has shaped the views even of those who haven’t heard of it, or who believe they disagree with it. A businessman who warns that falling confidence poses risks for the economy is a Keynesian, whether he knows it or not. A politician who promises that his tax cuts will create jobs by putting spending money in peoples’ pockets is a Keynesian, even if he claims to abhor the doctrine. Even self-proclaimed supply-side economists, who claim to have refuted Keynes, fall back on unmistakably Keynesian stories to explain why the economy turned down in a given year….

It’s probably safe to assume that the “conservative scholars and policy leaders” who pronounced The General Theory one of the most dangerous books of the past two centuries haven’t read it. But they’re sure it’s a leftist tract, a call for big government and high taxes…. [T]he arrival of Keynesian economics in American classrooms was delayed by a nasty case of academic McCarthyism. The first introductory textbook to present Keynesian thinking, written by the Canadian economist Lorie Tarshis, was targeted by a right-wing pressure campaign aimed at university trustees. As a result of this campaign, many universities that had planned to adopt the book for their courses cancelled their orders, and sales of the book, which was initially very successful, collapsed. Professors at Yale University, to their credit, continued to assign the book; their reward was to be attacked by the young William F. Buckley for propounding “evil ideas.”

But Keynes was no socialist – he came to save capitalism, not to bury it. And there’s a sense in which The General Theory was… a conservative book…. Keynes wrote during a time of mass unemployment, of waste and suffering on an incredible scale. A reasonable man might well have concluded that capitalism had failed, and that only… the nationalization of the means of production – could restore economic sanity…. Keynes argued that these failures had surprisingly narrow, technical causes… because Keynes saw the causes of mass unemployment as narrow and technical, he argued that the problem’s solution could also be narrow and technical: the system needed a new alternator, but there was no need to replace the whole car. In particular, “no obvious case is made out for a system of State Socialism which would embrace most of the economic life of the community.”… Keynes argued that much less intrusive government policies could ensure adequate effective demand, allowing the market economy to go on as before.

Still, there is a sense in which free-market fundamentalists are right to hate Keynes. If your doctrine says that free markets, left to their own devices, produce the best of all possible worlds, and that government intervention in the economy always makes things worse, Keynes is your enemy. And he is an especially dangerous enemy because his ideas have been vindicated so thoroughly by experience.

Stripped down, the conclusions of The General Theory might be expressed as four bullet points:

1. Economies can and often do suffer from an overall lack of demand, which leads to involuntary unemployment

2. The economy’s automatic tendency to correct shortfalls in demand, if it exists at all, operates slowly and painfully

3. Government policies to increase demand, by contrast, can reduce unemployment quickly

4. Sometimes increasing the money supply won’t be enough to persuade the private sector to spend more, and government spending must step into the breach

To a modern practitioner of economic policy, none of this – except, possibly, the last point – sounds startling or even especially controversial. But these ideas weren’t just radical when Keynes proposed them; they were very nearly unthinkable. And the great achievement of The General Theory was precisely to make them thinkable….

So now let’s talk about the core of the book, and what it took for Keynes to write it…. In Book I, as Keynes gives us a first taste of what he’s going to do, he writes of Malthus, whose intuition told him that general failures of demand were possible, but had no model to back that intuition: “[S]ince Malthus was unable to explain clearly (apart from an appeal to the facts of common observation) how and why effective demand could be deficient or excessive, he failed to provide an alternative construction; and Ricardo conquered England as completely as the Holy Inquisition conquered Spain.”… That need to “provide an alternative construction” explains many of the passages in The General Theory that, 70 years later, can seem plodding or even turgid…. When you’re challenging a long-established orthodoxy, the vision thing doesn’t work unless you’re very precise about the details….

Keynes’s struggle with classical economics was much more difficult than we can easily imagine today. Modern introductory economics textbooks – the new book by Krugman and Wells included – usually contain a discussion of something we call the “classical model” of the price level. But that model offers far too flattering a picture of the classical economics Keynes had to escape from. What we call the classical model today is really a post-Keynesian attempt to rationalize pre-Keynesian views…. The real classical model… was, essentially, a model of a barter economy, in which money and nominal prices don’t matter, with a monetary theory of the price level appended in a non-essential way, like a veneer on a tabletop. It was a model in which Say’s Law applied…. One measure of how hard it was for Keynes to divest himself of Say’s Law is that to this day some people deny what Keynes realized – that the “law” is, at best, a useless tautology when individuals have the option of accumulating money rather than purchasing real goods and services….

There’s a widespread impression among modern macroeconomists that we’ve left Keynes behind, for better or for worse. But that impression, I’d argue, is based either on a misreading or a nonreading…. If you don’t read Keynes himself, but only read his work as refracted through various interpreters, it’s easy to imagine that The General Theory is much cruder than it is…. Let me address one issue in particular: did Paul Samuelson, whose 1948 textbook introduced the famous 45-degree diagram to explain the multiplier, misrepresent what Keynes was all about? There are commentators who insist passionately that Samuelson defiled the master’s thought. Yet I can’t see any significant difference between Samuelson’s formulation and Keynes’s own equation for equilibrium employment, right there in Chapter 3: [29]. Represented graphically, Keynes’s version looks a lot like Samuelson’s diagram; quantities are measured in wage units rather than constant dollars, and the nifty 45-degree feature is absent, but the logic is exactly the same.

The bottom line, then, is that we really are all Keynesians now. A very large part of what modern macroeconomists do derives directly from The General Theory; the framework Keynes introduced holds up very well to this day.

Yet there were, of course, important things that Keynes missed or failed to anticipate. The strongest criticism one can make of The General Theory is that Keynes mistook an episode for a trend. He wrote in a decade when even a near-zero interest rate wasn’t low enough to restore full employment, and brilliantly explained the implications of that fact – in particular, the trap in which the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve found themselves, unable to create employment no matter how much they tried to increase the money supply. He knew that matters had not always been thus. But he believed, wrongly, that the monetary environment of the 1930s would be the norm from then on…. In the United States the era of ultra-low interest rates ended in the 1950s… Yet the United States has, in general, succeeded in achieving adequate levels of effective demand. The British experience has been similar. And although there is large-scale unemployment in continental Europe, that unemployment seems to have more to do with supply-side issues than with sheer lack of demand…. [Keynes] underestimated the ability of mature economies to stave off diminishing returns. Keynes’s “euthanasia of the rentier” was predicated on the presumption that as capital accumulates, profitable private investment projects become harder to find…. [T]he euthanasia of the rentier does not seem imminent. But there’s an even more important factor that has kept interest rates relatively high, and monetary policy effective: persistent inflation, which has become embedded in expectations…. [E]ven now, when inflation is considered low, most of the 20-year rate reflects expected inflation rather than expected real returns.

The irony is that persistent inflation, which makes The General Theory seem on the surface somewhat less directly relevant… can be attributed in part to Keynes’s influence, for better or worse. For worse: the inflationary takeoff of the 1970s was partly caused by expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, adopted by Keynes-influenced governments with unrealistic employment goals…. For better: both the Bank of England, explicitly, and the Federal Reserve, implicitly, have a deliberate strategy of encouraging persistent low but positive inflation, precisely to avoid finding themselves in the trap Keynes diagnosed….

What makes The General Theory truly unique… is that it combined towering intellectual achievement with immediate practical relevance to a global economic crisis…. There has been nothing like Keynes’s achievement in the annals of social science. Perhaps there can’t be. Keynes was right about the problem of his day: the world economy had magneto trouble, and all it took to get the economy going again was a surprisingly narrow, technical fix. But most economic problems probably do have complex causes and don’t have easy solutions….

Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber bragging about deceiving the American people, who he thinks are too stupid to know what’s good for them

Just who are these stupid people he is talking about: The Democrats and the media.

He is saying that the people who put Obamacare together knowingly understood that if Americans had understood the Affordable Care Act, that they would have rejected it because they are too stupid. They therefore by intent made the Act impossible to understand to fool them into supporting what they would otherwise have rejected because it was good for them. When the good part will arrive no one asks. This is a marry in haste, repent in leisure moment which is the entire story of the Obama administration.

Obama and the vanguard party of the left

Sultan Knish has a quite insightful column on Obama versus the Democrats which he sees as a war to the death between “the-win-power-by-saying-anything-that-gets-votes-whether-you-mean-it-or-not” wing of the party versus “The Progressives” who actually have a radical far left agenda that if people actually knew what it was would avoid Democrats like the plague. The Progressives are our modern version of the Bolshevik cell that lies in wait for their moment. The win-by-saying-anything group just likes the power and the perks and riches that come with it. As for the Progressives:

Their goal is to transform the country. If they can do that by winning elections, they’ll win them. But if they can’t, they’ll still follow their agenda.

And most importantly, they care not in the slightest if they ruin the Democrat Party and make it unelectable for a few years so long as they can put their own agenda in place. Here is where we are:

It’s not just about Obama’s ego. His campaigns and his time in office were meant to showcase the progressive position that the only way to win was from the left. Obama and his people would rather radicalize the Democratic Party and lose, than moderate their positions and stand a chance of winning. The left isn’t interested in being a political flirtation. It nukes any attempt at centrism to send the message that its allies will not be allowed any other alternative except to live or die by its agenda. Obama deliberately sabotaged Reid’s campaign plans, as Reid’s chief of staff discussed, because that strategy involved disavowing Obama and his legacy. In the time honored tradition of the radical left, Obama would rather have a Republican senate than a Democratic senate won by going to the center.

You cannot compromise with the Vanguard Parties of the Left. They are never your friends. In just the same way that those who thought they could control Hitler back in 1933 found they could not, the Democrats are finding they cannot control Obama. Whether any one else will be able to is the question that will be answered over the next two years. My own guess is that they will not in large part because they don’t really understand what they are dealing with.

And how many things does the CIA get wrong?

Andrew Bolt, Making Up History, has a link to a story, CIA reveals what Argo got wrong. If you want evidence of just how rotten from the inside American security agencies have become, you really ought to look at this idiot list.

Here’s what the movie Argo got right. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 installed a totalitarian government that was evil from Day One, a government that has ruined the lives of the Iranian people. It is a regime that is now doing everything it can, with virtually open connivance of the Obama Administration, to develop nuclear weapons that, should it succeed, will destabilise the Middle East and put more than just Israel at supreme risk. Here is the first of the 19 bits that the movie “got wrong”:

When the US Embassy is overtaken the 6 US diplomats go right to the Canadian ambassador’s residence to live for the 3 months.

All of these “errors” are of the same order of magnitude. They spice the film up just a tad, creating a bit of tension since it is a movie. But as these things go, this is near-on documentary coverage of events that are now 35 years old. You’d have to be around 50 to remember any of it. And where will you see anything, anywhere to give you a genuine picture of the kind of society Iran has become? Here’s the trailer. You know they’re going to get away, the facts are pretty well accurate and the films stands out as an actually pro-American piece of filming which has been almost unheard of since the 1970s. And it is an amazing story.

There is a final 20th point in the list of “errors” which must have been inserted by someone who retains at least an element of the CIA of old, you know, the CIA when it was still trying to defend the West:

Real #Argo: All involved in the operation were innovative, brave, & creative. Thank you @BenAffleck for making a film that reflects this.

The Kronies

John Papola on the Michael Loftus show in the US. An amazing piece of TV and there, on episode 7, was John discussing some of his creations with The Kronies amongst his latest. His first rise to fame was with the Keynes-Hayek Rap, the single most watched video on an economic matter ever produced, and one which sadly remains still relevant and important. I show it to my four classes each semester, along with the brilliant Deck the Halls with Macro Follies, and no matter how often I watch them, I never find it has been one time too many. Students get the point.

More on Big G and the Kronies:

Ann Coulter on immigration

It is not racist in any way to want your country to have sensible immigration laws to ensure that you are monitoring who enters your community and to ensure that one’s way of life is not undermined by an inability to cope with rapid increases of people from a different cultural background. Just because someone wants to come to your country to live does not mean you have to let them. When I think of the interviews I had to go through back in 1974 to migrate to Australia, the attitudes some people have today only make me laugh. And I had two university degrees and was coming to fill a job at a university that could not fill a lecturer’s position in economics. Boy were those the days! This is the always-sensible Ann Coulter discussing ‘DON’T SUCK UP’ ON IMMIGRATION in which she notes that even migrants to the US may not be all that keen on open migration either.

Columnist and author of “Never Trust a Liberal Over 3-Especially a Republican,” Ann Coulter argued that the Republican Party shouldn’t “suck up” on immigration during an interview on Saturday’s “Huckabee” on the Fox News Channel.

“Don’t suck up on things like amnesty and by the way, when I said that, you have the beautiful illustration in this one campaign, a wonderful new Republican Senator, Cory Gardner (CO), had just in a debate said something I’d consider a suck up and I don’t really want to attack a Republican I love. But he was attacking Udall for not pushing amnesty hard enough. Well, then after I said ‘this isn’t going to work, this is so stupid,’…then he came out with exactly what Republicans should be doing. And that is as Romney said, we will appeal to Hispanics the way we appeal to everyone by saying we are the party that offers opportunity and freedom from regulation and we won’t pass stupid bills like Obamacare that pay for abortions’…that totally worked” she argued.
She added “this idea that recent Hispanic immigrants want a huge wave of illegal immigrants to compete with them for the same jobs and drive their wages down, is silly. The Democrats are trying to persuade Republicans to fall for this so that the Democrats get more voters. But, I note, that when Obama was appealing for the Hispanic vote, he didn’t talk about amnesty in his Spanish language ads.”

Coulter also expressed faith in the new Republican Senate to push good policies, stating “everyone keeps saying, particularly on our side, ‘yeah, it was great and now the Republicans better not blow it. And I don’t think they will, I think [Sen.] Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is smart about this. But, I would like to warn the Tea Partiers there, do not expect the first bill to be a complete repeal of Obamacare that’s not the way Republicans should be playing this. They should send up a small piece, a small piece, things that are so overwhelmingly popular…that when and if, and probably when Obama vetoes it, the newspapers are going to have to report what Obama just vetoed. And people will say ‘wait a second, illegal aliens are getting earned income tax credit benefits?’”

You should go the link as well and listen to Ann speaking with Mike Huckabee, and I particularly liked his “President Oblivious”. There will be lots more of this in the days, weeks, months and years to come.

Why the Republicans won big

The Democrats have been colossal failures in producing anything remotely like a decent governing principle. They have run against market principles since the very start of the twentieth century and have been the party of redistribution during the whole period. They were also the party of segregation which gave them a solid south until the 1970s and then became the inheritors of the various forms of ethnic vote, basing their appeal on huge welfare payments that keep millions out of any serious need to work for a living. And finally, and by no means the least of the differences, has been the Democrat role in politicising the sexual revolution, with the only freedom Democrats absolutely stand for is the right to have sexual relations without any state restrictions. Combined with no-fault divorce, it is the policy of full sexual irresponsibility with no serious commitment required.

The result is a constituency with no core set of beliefs but which manages to pull together winning coalitions during elections as much as it ruins the nation. The actual indifference of Democrats to the welfare of those who vote for it is hidden behind a pretence of concern. But who cares? Just pass over the loot.

Obama was the epitome of all of this, and reliably. The left expects its leaders to lie about things that would cost too many votes to say out loud so they understood exactly what Obama really stood for.

But then there was the Obola virus and all was blown away.

It was not so much the probability of an epidemic which was small, but the sheer negligence finally got to people. It’s one thing to get an Obamaphone, it is quite another to have your life put at risk by a lackadaisical approach to public health. Everyone could personalise the problem. No one could be certain that they were safe. And they wanted the government to do everything in its power to reduce the risk.

But while the issue is ephemeral, the possibility that the change is indelible is genuine. You can depend on the Democrats to keep you poor, exploited and ground down by circumstance. They not only cause these problems, they benefit from the problems they cause and make worse. People are beginning to understand.

We shall see. But the death of the welfarist policies that are sinking the US is an outcome surely to be hoped for. It turns out that the greatest danger to any politician is to have Obama on your side (see Morsi for Exhibit A). He is the worst carrier of the Obola virus which hopefully is now under control, being eradicated and quarantined to a few large-city locations on the east and west coast of the US.