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What would an economist know about Brexit?

May 29, 2016

Let us assume that all things remain equal, there are no changes in regulations, no change in business structures, no new openings in international trade and no other economic changes of any kind. What do you assume will happen to the British economy if it leaves the EU? And here is one answer: Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron.

Nine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit, according to the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted.

A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.

But let’s mix that story with this one: Millions more migrants coming – deal with it, UN chief tells EU. This is what’s coming next:

A top UN official says Europe must prepare for the arrival of millions more refugees from the Middle East and Africa – and has accused David Cameron and other EU leaders of failing to create a “positive narrative” about the issue.

Michael Moller, who heads the Geneva office of the UN, said “complacency and lack of leadership” on the part of EU leaders left it unprepared for the mass influx of migrants.

“What we have been seeing is one of the biggest human migrations in history,” Moller, a Dane, said in an interview. “And it’s just going to accelerate. Young people all have cellphones and they can see what’s happening in other parts of the world, and that acts as a magnet.”

Get it? The EU and Britain are being accused of being unprepared to accept all of these migrants, not of thinking of ways to stop them from coming. For myself, I would be getting out of the EU while the going was good, I would blow up the Chunnel and then treble the size of the Royal Navy. If you are looking for a rapid and permanent descent in your standard of living, nothing will quite do it like a million unemployable migrants camping out in the centre of your cities. Indeed, the French are seeing the same problem. Also today, ‘The French Have Been Silent For Too Long’: Identitarians March Through Paris. Here’s what they want:

“The French have been silent for too long… It is time to show our determination to continue to live on our land, under our laws, our values and with respect to our identity.”

That is what everyone wants. No one is coming to France to be a Frenchman or to Germany to become German.

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