Risk perception and Covid-1984

20 million tests with 423,000 positive results unadjusted for the 2.3% false positive estimate apparently means, to a professor of statistics, that virtually no one may actually be covid-positive given the accuracy of the tests we now have available.

The notion that a proper understanding of risk lies behind the support for lockdowns and all of the other measures taken is without foundation. The chap in the video thinks that because in some abstruse approach to dealing with a set of numbers, that the entire British public will rise up and demand that the entire lockdown and protective apparatus be dismantled and that the health authorities and even the government will be held accountable for some sort of fraud.

What a joke! The real point is that virtually no one cares about the situation at large and in general, but only about themselves. And no one cares that their personal risk is, objectively measured, virtually zero, but only if their personal risk is more than zero. If it is, then lock it all down and throw away the key until you can come back with a vaccine that will with certainty protect ME from death.

To paraphrase Stalin, my death is a tragedy, that virtually no one else is dying is an irrelevancy.

Does anyone really get influenced by any of this: Survival rates for COVID-19?

The CDC last week posted its new estimate of the survival rates for COVID-19, broken up by age.

This link put those number in clear terms:

0-19 years: 99.997%
20-49 years: 99.98%
50-69 years: 99.5%
70+ years: 94.6%

That is, your chance of dying, by age, is as follows:

0-19 years: 0.003%%
20-49 years: 0.002%
50-69 years: 000.5%
70+ years: 0.054%

That may seem like a negligible number to you, but too all to many individuals it is a finite possibility. So far as all this is being conceived, even if someone is under 50 years of age, one chance in 50,000 is much too large, they think,if that one person is ME.

The politics of Covid is understood best by the hysterics and madmen political leaders amongst us. Any perceived risk greater than zero is unacceptable to a very large proportion of the VOTING public. Say this proportion is five percent, and it is likely much larger than that, no government will remain in place if it alienates so many. That’s where this comes from.

That, I promise you, is poll-driven.

1 thought on “Risk perception and Covid-1984

  1. Pingback: Risk perception and Covid-1984 - The Rabbit Hole

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