Married to the state

The American election has put up some interesting demographic effects for the future. Thinking about the American election once again, some depressing thoughts about the gender gap in the US which is emphasised by the marriage gap:

You don’t hear nearly as much about the rise of single voters, despite the fact that they represent a much more significant trend. Only a few analysts, such as Ruy Teixera, James Carville, and Stanley Greenberg, have emphasized how important singletons were to President Obama’s reelection. Properly understood, there is far less of a “gender” gap in American politics than people think. Yes, President Obama won “women” by 11 points (55 percent to 44 percent). But Mitt Romney won married women by the exact same margin. To get a sense of how powerful the marriage effect is, not just for women but for men, too, look at the exit polls by marital status. Among nonmarried voters​—​people who are single and have never married, are living with a partner, or are divorced​—​Obama beat Romney 62-35. Among married voters Romney won the vote handily, 56-42.

Far more significant than the gender gap is the marriage gap. And what was made clear in the 2012 election was that the cohorts of unmarried women and men are now at historic highs​—​and are still increasing. This marriage gap​—​and its implications for our political, economic, and cultural future​—​is only dimly understood.

Why is there a reluctance to marry? According to the article:

How did we get to an America where half of the adult population isn’t married and somewhere between 10 percent and 15 percent of the population don’t get married for the first time until they’re approaching retirement? It’s a complicated story involving, among other factors, the rise of almost-universal higher education, the delay of marriage, urbanization, the invention of no-fault divorce, the legitimization of cohabitation, the increasing cost of raising children, and the creation of a government entitlement system to do for the elderly childless what grown children did for their parents through the millennia.

There are, however, other considerations of first grade importance that have been left out. First is the changed moral climate that surrounds sexual relations. Boys like playing the field and girls find it more difficult to get some chap to commit. Secondly, since no-fault divorce also now includes divide-all-assets-in-half divorce and support-your-children-till-they’re-at-least-18 divorce, the potential costs of a failed marriage are ruinous. And because we live longer while the potential for extra-marital adventures are becoming more readily available, there is less to induce anyone to take the plunge. And since it is becoming easier to have the state pick up the tab on so many of the costs that were once a family burden, the financial advantages of marriage is melting away.

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