Don’t ask me what the index actually measures, but it is the worst it’s been since 2009. There is no recovery in the American economy, none at all. It is a complete mess with neither the government, the American economics community nor our existing macroeconomic texts of the slightest use in getting things back on track. This is the first para of the story from which the chart is taken:

It’s not only the just-released University of Michigan consumer confidence report and February retail sales on Thursday that surprised economists and investors with another dose of underwhelming news. Overall, U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators’ expectations by the most in six years.

They however give a pass to economic management because the labour market is doing reasonably well, in their eyes. So it is useful to be reminded of the actual reality once we adjust for falling labour force participation.

The worst part is not the outcome but the lack of insight into what the problem is. Keynesian macro is an economic wrecking ball, but there is not one economist in a hundred who even has an inkling that this is so, never mind why it is so.